Analytics to Action: Translating Data to Strategy Dana Hines, CFRE, President & CEO, Membership Consultants, Inc. Steve Jacobson, CEO, JCA Rosie Siemer, Founder & CEO, FIVESEED
Dana Hines, CFRE dana@membership-consultants.com 314-771-4664 ext 105 membership-consultants.com Steve Jacobson steve.jacobson@jcainc.com 212-981-8405 jcainc.com Rosie Siemer rosie@fiveseed.com 303-880-7105 fiveseed.com @MemberConsult fb.me/membershipconsultants linkedin.com/company/mem bership-consultants @JCA_inc fb.me/jacobsonconsultingapplic ations linkedin.com/company/jca @RosieSiemer fb.me/rosiesiemer linkedin.com/in/rosiesiemer
What We ll Cover Today Best practices in: Using data to uncover trends Analytics/scoring framework Identifying high risk members Strategies to retain first-year members Ways to reach new audiences Analytics to Action
Membership is Changing Big Data Data-driven Audiences expect more Technology is accelerating
In God we trust, all others must bring data. W. Edwards Deming American Engineer, Statistician, Author
METHODOLOGY: Scoring to Find At-Risk Members
Analytics Method
Prepare Make it a project Involve stakeholders Create milestone dates Begin preliminary data review (make friends with IT)
Understand Define your analytics goal o What is the behavior of interest? o What are we trying to affect? o What have we done to affect it in the past? Understand the current process/strategies related to the goal What are the current metrics? How will you measure success?
Analytics Question How do we make more money? How do we grow our member base? How do we increase at-risk renewal rates?
Example Business Questions We ve seen our rates for first year members falling and don t know why. We want to understand them so we can improve. We have tried a lot of things to increase renewal rates, we think we ve exhausted that. Instead, let s focus on getting more people to join (grow the denominator). We want to cut costs while keeping our rates the same. We are not sure where we should focus. Our goal is to increase rates across the board. Where should and shouldn t we spend our money?
Set the Baseline Establish the number you will use to measure success What are your renewal rates? Are they stable? Are you including the grace period?
Renewal Rates Over Time
New Members Over Time
Are Your Rates Stable?
What is the Right Grace Period?
Model Modeling begins with brainstorming What are the things that might predict renewal likelihood? Where does that data live? How do we bring it all together?
Model Demographics Address Distance to museum Geographic Region Requested address change Age Contact Preference Butterfly Do Not Contact Do Not Email No Acknowledgments Send Newsletter Gender Ancient Asia Contemporary Photo Film Textiles Visitation Exhibits Exhibit Name Exhibit Ticket Purchases Number in Party Average number in party Maximum number in party Giving 1st Transaction Median number in party Engagement Appeal Visitation Art Class Discount used on first trx Count of visits during Attended an Art Class for free First Gift Pay Method membership Day of week of Art Class Gift Amount Museum Visit Discount used on Art Class Giving Recency of Visit Interest transaction % change in size of second gift Visited museum on a Purchased Art Class Days free day to 2nd gift Engagement Gave a Tribute gift Audio Tour Purchase Number mail gifts Made a purchase in the shop Number of event gifts Film Pay Method Attended a film festival Cash Attended a Film for free Check Genre of Film Transaction Credit Card Lecture Workshop
Are the Factors Significant? Evaluate each factor and determine if it is statistically significant Examples from brainstorming Prior giving (Y/N) Gift amount Time since first gift Channel Expiration month Gift of membership List Member level Acknowledgment turnaround Special exhibit Distance to venue
Learning What Matters
This is a Model
This is a Model All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. What is the sweet spot?
Deploy the Model Plan the deployment How will you measure the effectiveness? Experiment Identify the specific change you will test Verify how you will segment the groups to adjust for known effects Use results to improve model
What Was Learned: Atlanta Botanic Garden We ve seen our rates for first year members falling and don t know why. We want to understand them so we can improve. Learned the change to renewal strategy had a negative impact, undo that. Get rid of the guilt message on the renewal notice. We have tried a lot of things to increase renewal rates, we think we ve exhausted that. Instead, let s focus on getting more people to join (grow the denominator). New members coming from lists are more likely to join (and renew), grow that effort. Those living within 50 miles are much more likely to join, focus there.
What Was Learned: Appalachian Mountain Club We want to cut costs while keeping our rates the same. Reduce investment in the very low and very high scores. Design an experiment to reduce mailings to selected groups to see how far they could cut back without affecting return. We are not sure where we should focus. Our goal is to increase rates across the board. Where should and shouldn t we spend our money? Reduced the investment in sure things and reallocated it saveable members. Noticed bi-modal peaks, members between ages 30 and 50 less likely to renew, determined is was due to having kids. Reallocate the renewal investments to marketing to 30 year old, marrieds.
Case Study: Museum of Fine Arts, Boston 300 Variables Member demographics Membership Details Member Experience Giving Prior Relationship 11 Significant Variables
Geography TRUE OR FALSE? Renewal rates were highest for members living in the local community. FALSE The only geographic significance was that they lived in New England.
Visitation TRUE OR FALSE? Renewal rates were higher for those members who visited the most often. KINDA TRUE Members who visited 3 or more times were more likely to renew. However, if they visited more often, the renewal rate was not any higher.
Age TRUE OR FALSE? As a first time member, the older you are, the more likely you are to renew. TRUE The older you are, the more likely you are to renew until you hit 74+, then you might not renew due to other factors, like death
MULTICHANNEL MARKETING: Insights to Action
Botanical Garden Following a blockbuster exhibition, a botanical garden improves firstyear renewal rates. The challenge retain more members after the blockbuster Attracted 10,000 new members during a repeat of an amazing blockbuster After previous blockbuster, retained 20% of new, first year members Strategy: Use the phone to preemptively renew those vulnerable members Results: o Retained 32% of first year members after the full renewal process was complete o Phone results achieved a 14% renewal rate prior to the regular renewal process being deployed
Botanical Garden FY FY 09-10 FY 10-11 FY 11-12 FY 12-13 FY 13-14 FY 14-15 First Year Retention 31.19% 22.00% 30.45% 23.79% 28.33% 32.34%
Renewal Rates Tracking renewal rates by month, recognizing seasonality Know the effect of each renewal touch Identify vulnerable months, seasons, target offers for those times
Tracking Renewal Rates By Month Membership Number of First Number of Second Number of Third Number of Fourth Current Expiration Dates First Renewal Second Renewal Third Renewal Fourth Renewal Number of Renewals Rate Renewals Rate* Renewals Rate* Renewals Rate Non-renewals January 1,035 0.29% 1,032 19.49% 822 29.08% 734 51.88% 498 February 900 5.00% 855 17.22% 745 29.11% 638 47.22% 475 March 1,021 4.41% 976 13.22% 886 24.19% 774 40.45% 608 April 1,328 9.11% 1,207 27.56% 962 35.47% 857 46.99% 704 May 1,543 14.19% 1,324 29.81% 1,083 36.94% 973 47.96% 803 June 1,254 8.93% 1,142 20.33% 999 32.78% 843 44.90% 691 July 1,368 7.75% 1,262 21.86% 1,069 32.82% 919 39.04% 834 August 1,259 8.02% 1,158 16.04% 1,057 31.77% 859 41.22% 740 September 816 6.37% 764 14.34% 699 32.11% 554 38.11% 505 October 645 7.44% 597 21.24% 508 32.25% 437 37.83% 401 November 761 8.02% 700 23.26% 584 29.96% 533 36.01% 487 December 901 6.33% 844 16.87% 749 30.08% 630 36.18% 575 Total 12,831 7.56% 11,861 20.79% 10,163 31.80% 8,751 42.94% 7,321
Marketing Automation, Mobile & Retargeting Trigger events Welcome series Automated renewal sequence Personalize by behavior Dynamic content Text messaging CRM retargeting Insights to Action
DATA MODELING: Identifying Your Best Prospects
Acquisition Modeling lapsed members Identify best prospects from ticket buyers: Conversion Tags Modeled acquisition lists from Blackbaud for prospect lists Response modeling/list optimization
Target Tags Science Center Lapsed Tag Performance # Prospects # Response Income Ave. Gift Resp. Rate Cost Net Income CPDR PPM Cost ROI Tag A 7,265 347 $45,318 $131 4.78% $6,329 $38,989 $0.14 $0.37 $7.16 Tag B 7,503 285 $37,905 $133 3.80% $5,949 $31,956 $0.16 $0.37 $6.37 Tag C 7,813 200 $27,062 $135 2.56% $5,948 $21,114 $0.22 $0.37 $4.55 Tag D 7,731 195 $25,469 $131 2.52% $5,379 $20,089 $0.21 $0.37 $4.73 Tag E 7,967 135 $17,762 $132 1.69% $5,444 $12,318 $0.31 $0.37 $3.26 Tag F 7,958 130 $17,252 $133 1.63% $5,369 $11,883 $0.31 $0.37 $3.21 Tag G 7,852 120 $16,219 $135 1.53% $4,963 $11,256 $0.31 $0.37 $3.27 Total 54,089 1,412 $186,987 $132 2.61% $29,048 $157,938 $0.16 $0.27 $6.44
ACQUISITION: Advanced Techniques for Targeting
The Marketing Funnel Create a path to membership and giving. Awareness Interest Desire Action
Who? Behavior Lookalike audiences Niche and aspirational audiences
Expanded Email Reach new audiences Take the first step Target Profile
Expanded Email
Retargeting is a behavioral based targeting technique. A cookie-based technology that uses simple a Javascript code to follow your audience around the Web.
Kinds of Retargeting Behavioral based targeting. Website visitors Email openers and/or clickers Abandon cart Search and browsing Related or competitor websites CRM (data onboarding) Facebook ad interaction
Primary Cult Fan
Facebook Lookalike CRM Retargeting Website Retargeting Birds of a Feather Critical Mass + Data
LOYALTY: Data in Action
Integration Internal Systems o POS, Databases, Website, Email External o Social Media, Partners Exhibits o Beacons, NFC Data capture 360 view of your members Top of mind awareness Nurturing Repeat visitation
Why Loyalty? Partner Activity Interact with an exhibit Tweet a hashtag Join Check in on Facebook Donate Buy a gift membership Volunteer Purchase tickets Reward Good Behavior Attend an event Click on an email link Visit Watch a video Conservation messaging Like the Facebook page Buy at the gift shop Take a survey Visit a webpage
Loyalty Research shows that cultural organizations are underserving this critical audience by 19%; and 80% of Millennials are more likely to choose an organization that offers a loyalty program over one that doesn t.
Q & A 1. Retaining high risk members 2. Converting highly qualified prospects 3. Encouraging repeat visitation 4. Increasing joining, renewal, upgrade, and giving 5. Growing membership revenues 6. Rolling out a loyalty program