BROILER PRODUCTION AND TRADE POULTRY AFRICA Kevin Lovell 5 October 2017 Feeding Africa - Our time is now
Why produce in Africa? 2 Before looking at dynamics of production and trade we should consider the sensibility of local production Why should food be local? Is local important for our individual country and continental identities? What does it mean to be a developing country?
What does it mean to be a developing country? 3 To be a developing country means that we seek to change the structure of our nations, the outcomes of our lives We seek our own version of what the developed world now has- this is an aspiration with an outcome that can be seen Think of President Trump and Make America Great Again - he wants to go back to the past: we want to go to the future
Should food be local? 4 Local is identity Developing countries see food production as an important part of identity the Maputo Declaration makes this clear Food production never stops being important- think of the US and EU agricultural support programmes
Should food be local? 5 Local is about jobs - producing food means creating local opportunity and opportunity means hope for employment Rural stability and economic opportunity need agriculture The poultry value chain is long and deep We are better known for our natural endowments than the things we make. Change that and you change our future
Global poultry production (2016) South Africa 1,2% USA 19,4% Brazil China 2,4% 2,9% 3,5% 3,9% 4,8% 13,1% EU S. America India Russia Mexico Middle East Source: USDA 11,7% 12,0% Argentina
Chicken meat production in Africa (2014) United Republic of Tanzania; 1% Libya; 2% Tunisia; 3% Other; 21% South Africa; 32% Nigeria; 5% Algeria; 5% Egypt, 19% Source: FAOSTAT Morocco; 11%
Poultry trade: whole chickens (2012 data)
Poultry trade: dark and breast meat (2012 data)
Imports (x 1000 tonnes) Trade: chicken meat importers (2016) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Source: USDA
African poultry meat trade: 2013 IMPORTS EXPORTS Quantity (t) Value ($ million) Quantity (t) Value ($ million) SADC 809 896 1 026.1 COMESA 553 512 766.3 ECOWAS 382 175 454.8 UDEAC 128 642 198.8 Other 90 110 188.7 56 104 87.0 3 301 7. 2 316 1.3 2 0.01 2 814 4.6 Source: FAOSTAT
Future production in Africa 12 What do we need to do to produce more poultry meat in Africa? Form strong government - private sector (PPP) links- agree a national future What are our main advantages? Low levels of current consumption Population growth Urbanisation Economic growth Competitiveness What are our main disadvantages The Western diet type and amount Poor trade protection systems Limited funds for state support of agriculture
Future production in Africa: world protein consumption (2013) SADC 61,07 Africa Asia Americas 68,13 76,23 92,04 Plant Meat Dairy Fish Eggs Europe 99,99 Oceania 97,90 0,00 20,00 40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 120,00 Daily grams of protein per capita Source: FAOSTAT
Future production in Africa: SADC demographic profile by age cohort 2015 14
People, millions Future production in Africa: French demographic profile by age cohort (France, 2015) 15 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Source: UN Data
Future production in Africa: urbanisation in Africa Urban population (thousands) 2015 2050 % growth % urbanised in 2050 Africa 471 602 1 338 566 184% 56% World 3 957 285 6 338 611 60% 66% Africa as % of World 11.9% 21.1% Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Urbanization Prospects : The 2014 Revision. CD-ROM.
Future production in Africa: economic growth in Africa COUNTRY PER CAPITA GDP ($) POPULATION GDP % change 2016 2016 2016 v 2006 Ethiopia 707 102 403 196 365% Sudan 2415 39 578 828 270% Egypt, Arab Rep. 3514 95 688 681 256% Liberia 455 4 613 823 255% Zimbabwe 1009 16 150 362 243% Nigeria 2178 185 989 640 214% Kenya 1455 48 461 567 209% Sao Tome and Principe 1756 199 910 208% Rwanda 703 11 917 508 205% Tanzania 879 55 572 201 186% Uganda 615 41 487 965 183% Congo, Dem. Rep. 445 78 736 153 176% Burundi 286 10 524 117 172% Guinea 508 12 395 924 171% Mauritius 9628 1 263 473 169%
Future production in Africa: competitiveness (whole bird LEI study - 2013 data) Source: BFAP, LEI
Future production in Africa summary: African trade blocs ECOWAS Population: 2016: 362 million 2050: 810 million Population increase: +124% Urbanisation increase: + 211% UDEAC Population: 2016: 51 million 2050: 110 million Population increase: +116% Urbanisation increase: +171% SADC Population: 2016: 308 million 2050: 679 million Population increase: +120% Urbanisation increase: +172% COMESA Population: 2016: 601 million 2050: 1 271 million Population increase: +111% Urbanisation increase: + 207% Source: UN Population Division
Future production in Africa: our disadvantages 20 The Western diet Westerners generally do not eat all parts of a chicken as a preference Saturated home markets- little chance for growth Trade protection systems Poor systems in most developing countries Aggressive trade agreement pressures a form of colonial continuation Limited state support for agriculture Limited funding Limited infrastructural and skills capacity
Possible African growth: eastern Africa Commodity Chicken Meat (tons) Consumption 2011 Expected Requirements 2050 Shortfall in 2050 559 588 10 447 697 9 888 109 Population: 2015: 395 million Population increase: +120% 2050: 869 million Urbanisation increase: + 275% Source: FAOSTAT; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Urbanization Prospects : The 2014 Revision.
Possible African growth: middle Africa Commodity Chicken Meat (tons) Consumption 2011 Expected Requirements 2050 Shortfall in 2050 539 515 4 005 552 3 466 037 Population: 2015: 143 million Population increase: +121% 2050: 316 million Urbanisation increase: + 205% Source: FAOSTAT; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Urbanization Prospects : The 2014 Revision.
Possible African growth: western Africa Commodity Chicken Meat (tons) Consumption 2011 Expected Requirements 2050 Shortfall in 2050 962 277 9 174 537 8 212 260 Population: 2015: 350 million Population increase: +133% 2050: 815 million Urbanisation increase: + 224% Source: FAOSTAT; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Urbanization Prospects : The 2014 Revision.
Possible African growth: southern Africa Commodity Chicken Meat (tons) Consumption 2011 Expected Requirements 2050 Shortfall in 2050 1 857 188 1 100 476-756 712 Population: 2015: 61 million Population increase: +22% 2050: 75 million Urbanisation increase: + 47% Source: FAOSTAT; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Urbanization Prospects : The 2014 Revision.
Possible future growth: sub-saharan Africa - summary Commodity Consumption 2011 Expected Requirements 2050 Shortfall in 2050 Chicken Meat (tons) 3 918 568 24 728 261 20 809 693 Source: FAOSTAT; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Urbanization Prospects : The 2014 Revision.
Possible future chicken meat consumption (tonnes) population growth effect on its own Consumption Expected requirements Shortfall 2013 2050 2050 SADC 2 796 102 5 054 427 2 258 324 COMESA 2 206 047 5 020 358 2 814 311 ECOWAS 1 120 579 2 595 741 1 475 162 UDEAC 198 441 456 748 258 307 Other 1 181 803 1 634 899 453 096 Source: FAOSTAT
Conclusion 27 Partnerships with government needed Foreign technology partners needed Be prepared to adapt production patterns to suit local needs Deal with GMO resistance Aggressive trade and SPS measure support needed Benchmark competitiveness No need for cultural cringe
Broiler production and trade 28 ANY QUESTIONS?
ECOWAS Chicken meat production (2014) 2,35% Source: FAOSTAT 1,88% 1,85% 0,69% 0,30% 0,23% 0,14% Nigeria 2,59% 3,74% 4,99% 5,86% 43,39% 6,67% 7,42% 8,13% 9,77% Senegal Ghana Cote d'ivoire Mali Burkina Faso Togo Benin Niger Sierra Leone Liberia Guinea Mauritania Guinea-Bissau
SADC Chicken meat production (2014) 1,61% 1,17% 0,61% 0,30% 0,30% 0,52% 0,08% 0,01% 2,26% 2,25% 3,06% 2,57% 4,07% Source: FAOSTAT 81,20% South Africa Malawi Zimbabwe United Republic of Tanzania Zambia Mauritius Angola Mozambique Namibia Democratic Republic of the Congo Botswana Swaziland Lesotho Seychelles
COMESA Chicken meat production (2014) 1,54% 0,98% 0,77% 0,65% 0,37% 0,24% 0,09% 0,03% 0,02% 2,30% 2,04% 2,84% 2,86% 3,25% 3,47% 3,67% Egypt Malawi Uganda Zimbabwe Ethiopia Sudan United Republic of Tanzania 3,87% 3,89% 5,14% Source: FAOSTAT 61,95% Zambia Mauritius Madagascar Angola Kenya Rwanda Namibia
UDEAC Chicken meat production (2014) 5,66% 4,11% 0,26% 7,08% 6,34% Cameroon Congo Central African Republic Chad Gabon Equatorial Guinea 76,55% Source: FAOSTAT
Saint Vincent Saint Lucia Samoa Brunei Darussalam Israel Antigua and Barbuda Trinidad and Tobago Saint Kitts and Nevis China, Hong Kong Kuwait Jamaica USA French Polynesia Saudi Arabia Australia Bahamas Brazil New Caledonia Grenada Barbados United Arab Emirates Malaysia Venezuela Argentina Mauritius South Africa Canada Chile China, Macao SAR Guyana Suriname New Zealand Bolivia Jordan Gabon Bermuda China, Taiwan United Kingdom Oman Belarus Dominica Panama Portugal Mexico KG Chicken supply 2013 (kg/capita/annum) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: FAOSTAT
Brazil USA EU Thailand China Turkey Argentina Ukraine Canada South America Other FSU South Africa Saudi Arabia Middle East Russia Australia South Korea Asia & Oceania Central Am. & Carrib. Japan Malaysia Other Europe Mexico India Phillipines North Africa West African Taiwan Sub-Saharan Africa Egypt Pakistan x 1000 metric tonnes Poultry trade: chicken meat exporters (2016 data) 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Global exports 4188 3557 1303 570 375 364 225 190 168 145 100 85 83 45 45 35 27 17 17 12 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 3 2 1 1