Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Towards sustainable development - policy oriented, practical and strategic research on global environmental issues Resources sustainability in Myanmar: Lessons from integrated assessment of water-energy nexus in neighbouring countries Bijon Kumer Mitra The Third Green Economy Green Growth Forum Yangon, 21-22 November, 2013
Far way to water and energy security in Asia About 72% of world s poor live in Asia, where 1.8 billion people living on <2US$/day About 638 million people have no access to clean water and 1.5 billion peoples have no access to decent sanitation Asia accounts for about 62% of the world s hungry population About 930 million Asians have no access to electricity By 2050, water supply demand will be increased by 40% and electricity demand will be double.
Water use by sectors in Asia Agriculture Industry Domestic Generally, water demand for energy is ignored in water management plan. But energy sector use a huge volume of water.
The Water-Energy Nexus Water for energy extraction/production of primary energy hydropower cooling of thermal power plant clean energy generation H 2 O E Energy for water water extraction water and wastewater treatment supply of water 4
Rationale of water-energy nexus this study High water foot-print of energy sector in Asia Increasing threat of water shortages for energy production in future Several evidence of water energy trade off conflict Uncertain climate impact on long term water availability. Availability of water efficient energy generation technologies brings the option of alternative planning. 5
Example of water crisis for electricity generation in Asia Country Nature of water crisis India Opposition to Adani power projects is growing in local community due to threats to drinking water and irrigation water availability In Orissa State, farmers protested the increasing rate of water allocation for thermal power and industrial use Thailand EGCO's Rayong plant nearly ran out of cooling water in the dry season of 2005 Reduced rainfall causing reduction of hydropower generation in Thailand in 2004 Viet Severe drought caused reduction of hydropower generation to 40% of total capacity due to diversion Nam of water for agriculture, Sources The Times of India, 2011 UNEP Finance Initiative, 2010 Levinson, 2008 Thai Press Reports, 2004 Financial Times Information, 2005 6
Long term water supply-demand gap scenario, case of India Billion Cubic Meter 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Surface water resources 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 No surface water left to meet additional demand beyond 2040 Ene share of SW Ind share of SW Ag share of SW Dom share of SW Total surface water demand Available surface water 7
Methodological framework of quantitative assessment of water energy nexus Global Circulation Model Feeds into Hydrological Model (SWAT) Output: Future water availability (BCM) Feeds into Supply demand gap Feeds into Feeds into Statistical extrapolation Water Demand Agriculture Industry Domestic Output: projection of future water demand Power plant survey Output: water use intensity (m3/mwh) Feeds into MESSAGE Model Output: Water demand for energy, Energy mix under water constraint scenarios Feeds into Energy 8
Electricity generation in Thailand 2000 1500 Coal Lignite Gas Oil Hydro Renewable Nuclear TWh 1000 500 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Gas based electricity generation is likely to predominate the electricity supply mix in the foreseeable future in Thailand 9
% changes in the future seasonal water availability in Thailand 1990 (Base year) 2050 2050 River Basin group Water in wet (MCM) Water in dry (MCM) % change in wet season to base year 1999 % change in dry season to base year 1999 Salawin Basin Group 11023 3327 6.24 1.81 Mae Kok Basin group 7993 2123 19.51 17.9 Mae Khong Basin Group 30426 10112 24.85 17.47 Chaopraya Basin group 27001 7993 7.3 6.56 Mae Klong Basin group 15673 5376 14.57-3.37 Bang Pakong basin Group 7112 2129 14.64 27.76 Eastern Gulf Coast Basin Group 7598 2312 9.7 4.89 Western Gulf Coast Basin Group 7992 2731 3.72-12.13 Southern Basin Group 68232 40958 4.63-7.8 Total water availability will increase in the future. However, model results show decreasing of dry season water availability in Mae Klong Basin group, Western Gulf Coast Basin group and Southern Basin group. 10
Water requirement of different type of power plants, Thailand Name power plant of Fuel type Cooling system Water use coefficient (m3/mwh) Source of water for power plants Mae Moh Lignite Closed loop 2950 Mae Kham reservoir and Mae Chang reservoir Bang Pakong Gas Closed loop 900 Bangpakong River Open loop 5700 Water issues related Dry season water scarcity High salinity of river water during dry season South Bangkok Gas Closed loop 1950 Chaophraya River Open loop 5500 High salinity of river water during dry season Chana Gas Closed loop 1500 Poma canal and Bang-ped canal Dry season water scarcity and high salinity Water use intensity ranges from 900-5700 m3/mwh, depending on fuel types and cooling technology. Dry season water scarcity may be a hindrance to energy supply (Source: Based on IGES survey of Thai power plants ) 11
Sectoral water demand projection for Thailand BCM 95 85 75 65 55 45 35 Electricity Domestic Industry Agriculture 25 2010 2030 2050 By 2050, Thai electricity sector will require 10 BCM water to ensure projected power generation, which is about 2.5 times higher than domestic water demand at the same time. But, water demand for electricity generation is ignored in water allocation planning. 12
Projection of electricity generation in India 6000 Wind Solar-PV Nuclear Hydro Gas Coal Biomass Electricity generation (Million MWh) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2010 2025 2050 Source: IGES estimated using TIMES Integrated Assessment Model ver 2010 The dominance of water intensive coal-based thermal power generation in the total electricity supply mix of the country is not likely to change 13
Water requirement of different type of thermal power plants, India Water requirement (m 3 /GWh) (Max) (Min) Source: Based on IGES survey of Indian power plants conducted during 2012. 14
Distribution of thermal power plants in river basins River basin Thermal power capacity distribution (%) Ganga 35 Indus 7 Luni 6 Mahanadi 9 Brahmani and Batarni 3 Godavri 11 Tapi 6 Krishna 5 EFRs 7 WFRs 6 Brahmaputra 0.5 Others 5.5 Over 75% of the installed power plants is located in areas with absolutely water scarcity and water stress 15
Relevant national policy to cope with water energy trade off conflict in India The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF), Govt. of India, put a ban on using open loop wet cooling system in any inland power plants using fresh water from 1 June 1999. Power plants setup in the coastal areas are allowed to use open loop wet cooling system provided they use sea water as a coolant. Power plant Zero Discharge Policy is promoted and encouraged. Having secured water supply for the power plant operation is now crucial for approval. 16
Long term water availability scenarios: Impact of power sector water demand Billion cubic meter 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 others Residential Agriculture Criticality ratio Electricity Industry Total utilisable water 500 2010 2025 2050 2010 2025 2050 2010 2025 2050 NCIWRD IGES estimate (with policy) IGES estimate (without policy) Note: Estimated water demand with policy intervention basically considers the closed loop wet cooling system installed after June 1999 and without policy water demand is a reference estimate of continuation of use of open loop wet cooling system. By 2050, total water demand will exceed total utilisable water, even with implementation of existing policies. 17
Long term electricity supply mix under water constraint conditions Under water constraint situation, India needs to change electricity supply mix. India needs to reduce dependency on coal power plants and adopt low water intensive options in power sector (eg. Gas TPP with cooling, Solar) 18
Myanmar s electricity supply mix (unit: MW) 715, 21% 120, 3% Hydro Coal 2660, 76% Gas Source: ADB, 2012 Hydropower formed back bone of Myanmar s electricity supply. Consequently, Myanmar's electricity supply is highly vulnerable to climate change induced hydrological uncertainty.
Water availability and electrification ratio in major administrative division, Myanmar Per capita water availability (m3) 100000 75000 50000 25000 0 per capita water avail. Electrification 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Electrification ratio Per capita water availability and electrification ratio is negatively correlated. Meant water energy conflict may increase in coming years
Lessons from case study in India and Thailand Long term energy supply might get negatively affected due to lack of water and energy sector investment can be jeopardized. It is important to consider spatial distribution of water resources for selection of Go and No Go areas in future power plant construction planning. Diversification in energy fuel mix reduce risk of water shortage induced blackout as well as environmental impacts. End-use efficiency improvement has potential to complement significant volume of water for other users. In general, water abundant country like Thailand and Myanmar may not face water shortage for electricity generation. However, climate induced seasonal change of water availability may negatively affect energy supply 21
Thank you for your attention! For further contact: Bijon Kumer Mitra Water Resource Specialist Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, 2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi Hayama, JAPAN 240-0115 E-mail: b-mitra@iges.or.jp