PROGRESS TOWARD SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

PROGRESS TOWARD SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Global Tracking Framework 2015

Coordinators: Partners:

Despite some acceleration, Africa still not moving fast enough to end energy poverty by 2030

Pace of electrification doubled in recent years, but needs to double again to meet SDG7 40% 60% 21% 20% 80% 0% 100%

Pace of electrification doubled in recent years, but needs to more than double again to meet SDG7 39% 40% 60% 21% 20% 80% 0% 100%

Minimal progress on access to non-solid fuels, and moving even more slowly than in the past 40% 60% 20% 80% 11% 0% 100%

Minimal progress on access to non-solid fuels, and moving even more slowly than in the past 40% 60% 20% 80% 11% 7% 0% 100%

Africa s progress on energy efficiency is about SSA Efficiency: 46% half of what the global target envisages 46% 40% 60% 20% 80% 0% 100%

Africa s progress on energy efficiency is about half of what the global target envisages 46% 51% 40% 60% 20% 80% 0% 100%

Recent acceleration of modern renewables, consistent with a doubling of the share by 2030 40% 40% 60% 20% 80% 0% 100%

Recent acceleration of modern renewables, consistent with a doubling of the share by 2030 40% 40% 60% 20% 80% 100% 0% 100%

Africa s overall progress: a mixed report card 39% 51% 40% 60% 20% 80% 7% 0% 100% 100%

Many African countries are gearing-up on electrification, but challenging to stay ahead of population growth

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 Percent Percent Notable long term acceleration in electrification rates, and stagnation in progress on non-solid fuels 40 40 35 31.8 35.4 35 30 26.1 30 25 22.9 25 20 20 17.0 18.1 18.2 15 15 13.5 10 10 5 5 0 0 Access to electricity (% of total population) Access to Non-Solid Fuel (% of total population) Access to electricity, 1990-2012 Access to non-solid fuels, 1990-2012 14

Million people Million people Absolute number of people without access constant for electricity (at 590m), growing for non-solid fuels (to 747m) 800 700 800 700 708 747 600 590 590 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 2010 2012 Electricity access deficit (millions of people) 0 2010 2012 Non-solid fuel access deficit (millions of people) 15

For the first time, African pace of electrification just kept up with population growth; not so for non-solid fuels 24 million 24 million 5 million Average annual increase in electrified population 2010-2012 Average annual population increase 2010-2012 Average annual increase in population with access to non-solid fuels 2010-2012

In South Asia, pace of electrification already almost four times faster than population expansion 38 million 11 million 11 million Average annual increase in electrified population 2010-2012 Average annual population increase 2010-2012 Average annual increase in population with access to non-solid fuels 2010-2012

To stay ahead of population and meet SDG7 target 60-70 million Africans will need to gain access each year 24 million 24 million 5 million Average annual increase in electrified population 2010-2012 Average annual population increase 2010-2012 Average annual increase in population with access to non-solid fuels 2010-2012 62 million 29 million 71 million

Four times as many people gained energy access in urban than rural areas over 2010-2012 Share of energy access in rural areas Share of energy access in urban areas

Most African countries making steady progress on electrification Electrification rate did not increase between 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012

Electrification Most African countries making steady progress on electrification Electrification rate did not increase between 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012

Progress on access to non-solid fuels lackluster across the board Rate of access to non-solid fuels did not increase between 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012

Despite strong efforts only a handful of countries are accelerating energy access faster than population Mali Nigeria Ghana Congo, DR Rwanda Burkina Faso Cameroon Mozambique Zambia Angola Uganda Niger Ethiopia South Sudan Malawi Tanzania Kenya Madagascar Chad Burundi -6.5% -0.1% -0.5% -1.1% -1.5% -1.7% -1.8% -1.9% -2.3% -2.3% -2.4% -2.4% -2.5% -3.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 5.9% Mali Congo, DR Burkina Faso Cote d'ivoire Angola Ghana Nigeria Zambia Kenya Malawi Tanzania Mozambique Madagascar Rwanda Cameroon Uganda Niger Chad Ethiopia Guinea -0.2% -0.6% -1.0% -2.5% -2.6% -2.9% -3.0% -3.0% -3.4% -3.5% -3.6% -3.7% -4.0% -4.6% -4.7% -4.9% -6.3% 0.3% 0.1% 1.7% Access to electricity net growth rate, 2010-2012 Access to non-solid fuels net growth rate, 2010-2012 26

Access rate change 2010-2012 (percentage points) Access rate 2012 (percent) Among top 20 electricity access deficit countries, show slow expansion in countries with lowest electrification 64 56 54 37 33 27 26 23 22 20 18 18 16 15 15 14 13 10 7 6 3.6 7.6 4.7 2.4 3.6 3.6 9.0 0.0 3.6 5.2 3.6 7.2 1.2 1.1 0.5 5.1 0.0 1.1 1.2 2.9 Electricity access rate in 2012 (top) and access rate percentage point change, 2010-2012 (bottom) 27

Access rate percentage point change, 2010-2012 Access rate in 2012 (percent) Among top 20 non-solid fuel access deficit countries, fastest expansion among those with highest access 44 28 25 22 19 17 17 16 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3.8 3.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0-0.4-0.8-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.6 Non-solid fuel access rate in 2012 (top) and access rate percentage point change, 2010-2012 (bottom) 28

Kinshasa pilot shows multi-tier framework gives a much more nuanced picture of energy access 30

Conventional measures of energy access fail to capture many important dimensions of service quality Electricity Source Capacity Duration Duration Source Source 24 Hours (hours) Evening (hours) NO ACCESS 10% SHS 2% OTHER 1% NO ACCESS 10% SHS 2% OTHER 1% 8h-16h 23% 16h- 22h 9% >22h 6% <4h 23% >4h 41% <1h 9% 1h-2h 18% GRID 87% GRID 87% 4h-8h 39% 2h-4h 32% Reliability Quality Affordability Legality Duration of interruptions (mins) Low Voltage problems Index: Index: None 38% >30 mins 46% Good voltage 15% Not Afforda ble 2% Not Legal 2% <10 mins 5% 10-30 mins 11% Low Voltage 85% Afforda ble 98% Legal 98% Less than 8 hours per day for 62% of the household Unscheduled interruptions are longer than 30 minutes for more than 57% of the household Almost 85% of the household experienced low voltage 31

African economies are surprisingly energy intensive, some progress driven mainly by transport and by South Africa

MJ/USD 2011 PPP Africa shows high levels of energy intensity, compared to most other regions 12 10.8 10 8 7.3 7.9 8.5 6 4 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 2 0 EUR NAF LAC SEA WAS SAS OSN NAR EAS SSA EEU CCA Energy intensity by region, 2012 33

Africa most energy intensive continent after Eastern Europe and CIS, but making meaningful improvements Primary Energy intensity reduction 2010-2012 Energy savings 2010-2012 8.1 MJ/$ 7.9 MJ/$ 34

MJ/2011 USD PPP GJ/household Transport Primary Industrial Residential Agricultural Services Africa s energy intensity is decreasing at -1.4% per year, driven entirely by improvements in transport and industry 25 80 20 70 60 8.3 15 50 40 10 30 2.7 5 20 10 0.3 0 1 6 11 16 21 0-1.4-1.3 Transport Industrial Agricultural Services Residential Primary -4.1 Energy intensity, 1990-2012 CAGR of energy intensity, 2010-2012 35

One third of countries making rapid progress on efficiency Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity did not improve between 2010-2012 Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by less than 2.6% per annum in 2010-2012 Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by at least 2.6% per annum in 2010-2012

CAGR of Energy Intensity, 2010-2012 (percent) Energy Intensity in 2012 (MJ/USD 2011 PPP) Among 20 top energy consumers, 8 exceeded SE4ALL energy intensity change target of -2.6% per year 60 54.7 50 40 30 20 10 4.0 4.6 5.3 5.8 6.3 6.4 7.0 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.3 9.7 9.7 11.9 12.1 17.0 17.5 17.9 19.1 0 AGO GHA CMR SEN NGA MDG BFA ZMB UGA KEN ZAF BEN CIV GIN TZA ETH ZWE MOZ ZAR SOM 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 9.6 1.0 0.8-0.2-0.9-0.5-1.9-2.4-2.2-1.8-2.8-2.5-1.9-4.0-3.9-4.3-4.3-5.5-4.9-6.5 AGO GHA CMR SEN NGA MDG BFA ZMB UGA KEN ZAF BEN CIV GIN TZA ETH ZWE MOZ ZAR SOM Top 20 energy users primary energy intensity in 2012 (top) and energy intensity CAGR 2010-2012 (bottom) 39

Africa is the world s most renewable continent, thanks mainly to biomass and hydro, in midst of structural shift from traditional to modern sources

Percent of TFEC Africa s energy consumption is 70% renewables, and 9% modern renewables comparing favorably with Asia 80 70 60 Solid biofuels, trad. Solid biofuels, mod. 50 Hydro Biogas 40 Waste Solar 30 23.1 Wind Geothermal 20 10 5.8 15.2 9.4 7.9 8.8 9.0 Liquid biofuels Modern RE share 0 EAS EUR LAC NAR SAS SEA SSA 41

Traditional biomass consumption decreased 0.46 EJ 2010-2012, equivalent to Angola s annual energy consumption Traditional RE share decrease 2010-2012 Annual traditional RE consumption decrease, 2010-2012 62.8% 61.9% 0.46 EJ 42

Modern renewable energy consumption increased 0.19 EJ 2010-2012, more than Benin s annual consumption Modern RE share increase 2010-2012 Annual modern RE consumption increase, 2010-2012 8.3% 0.19 EJ 9.0% 43

GW Percent Modern renewable energy, mainly hydro-power, provide 20% of Africa s electricity 2 1.5 1 40 35 30 25 20 Geothermal Solar Biomass, Waste 15 Wind 0.5 0 10 5 0-5 Hydro RE share of installed capacity RE share of installed capacity excluding hydro -0.5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-10 Renewable capacity change (left) and renewables share of capacity (right), 1990-2012 44

Few countries rapidly increasing modern renewable share Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption did not improve between 2010-2012 Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by less than 1 percentage point 2010-2012 Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by at least 1 percentage point 2010-2012

Modern RE share annual increment, 2010-2012 (percentage point change) Modern RE share of TFEC, 2012 (percent) Among top 20 energy consumers, 8 expanded their renewable energy share between 2010-2012 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 32.9 28.4 22.4 21.7 21.7 19.8 16.4 11.8 9.6 9.4 9.1 8.5 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.2 2.1 1.9 1.2 1.1 2 1 0-1 -0.5 0.0 1.3-0.5 0.0-0.8-0.1-0.3 0.9 0.1-0.1 0.0-0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1-0.1-0.2-2 -1.4 Top 20 energy consumers modern renewable energy share in 2012 (top) and modern renewable energy share annual percentage point change, 2010-2012 48

Annual investment needs range from $49-85 billion

Annual investment needs very much depend on the level of ambition for energy access Electricity access Energy efficiency Renewable energy Tier 5 4 3 2 1 37 20 8 7 1 Providing at minimum universal Tier I/III/V electricity access to Sub-Saharan Africa s population Source: results from AIM model $Billion/year 12 Significantly reducing energy intensity in Africa Source: WEO 450 36 Doubling Africa s share of RE in TFEC Source: IRENA REmap

For more information on the report, please go to: trackingenergy4all.worldbank.org #endenergypoverty