Mainstreaming Natural Capital into Decision-Making. Gretchen C. Daily

Mainstreaming Natural Capital into Decision-Making Gretchen C. Daily

Four Frontiers 1. Co-developing knowledge 2. Co-developing practical tools 3. Implementing in the real-world 4. Replicating & scaling successes

Identifying Alternatives Decisions Institutions Ecosystems Human Well-Being Services (Daily et al. 2009 Frontiers) (Polasky & Segerson 2009 ARRE)

Policies / Incentives Identifying Alternatives Decisions Scenarios Institutions Ecosystems Information Human Well-Being Health Economic, Social Models Services Biophysical Models (Daily et al. 2009 Frontiers) (Polasky & Segerson 2009 ARRE)

1 st Story: Co-Developing Knowledge Identifying Alternatives Decisions Institutions Ecosystems Human Well-Being Services (Daily et al. 2009 Frontiers) (Polasky & Segerson 2009 ARRE)

1 st Story: Co-Developing Knowledge Institutions Identifying Alternatives Decisions Harmonizing Agriculture, Ecosystems Livelihoods & Rainforest? Human Well-Being Services

1 st Story: Co-Developing Knowledge Institutions Identifying Alternatives Decisions Harmonizing Agriculture, Ecosystems Livelihoods & Rainforest? Human Well-Being Taylor Ricketts Chase Mendenhall Services Danny Karp

Urban Mental Health City Living 20% increase in anxiety disorders 40% increase in mood disorders

Impact of Nature Experience on Mental Health

Difference in Number of Letters Remembered Mean Change in Working Memory 20 10 0 Urban Nature Greg Bratman

Demonstrating Boosts from Nature in Crop yields Income Cognitive Function Emotional Well-Being

Demonstrating Boosts from Nature in Crop yields From Studies Income to Policy? Cognitive Function Emotional Well-Being

Demonstrating Boosts from Nature in Crop yields Snälla Income Hjälp?! Cognitive Function Emotional Well-Being

The Natural Capital Project 1. Co-developing knowledge 2. Co-developing practical tools 3. Implementing in real-world 4. Replicating & scaling successes

2 nd Story: Co-Developing Practical Tools Identifying Alternatives Decisions Institutions Ecosystems Human Well-Being Services (Daily et al. 2009 Frontiers) (Polasky & Segerson 2009 ARRE)

Land cover InVEST: Flood control C-sequestration Identifying Alternatives Decisions Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Institutions Ag production Biodiversity Human Well-Being Services & Services Ecosystems Tradeoffs Nelson et al. 2008 PNAS Daily & Matson 2008 PNAS

Scenario Tool How will ecosystem service values change With climate change? With population growth? With a new policy or program?

How would restoration affect agricultural income drinking water quality erosion control carbon sequestration & biodiversity?

How would restoration affect nursery habitats fishing income erosion & flooding recreation & biodiversity?

InVEST maps & values Managed Timber Production Water Purification Carbon Storage & Sequestration Aquaculture Marine Water Quality Crop Pollination Reservoir Hydropower Production Aesthetic Quality Fisheries Wave Energy Agricultural Production Sediment Retention Groundwater Recharge Flood Risk & Mitigation Recreation Habitat Risk & Biodiversity Coastal Vulnerability Coastal Protection Overlap Analysis Model in development

Data inputs on natural capital Land Use Soil type Topography

Data inputs on built capital Roads Cities Infrastructure

Outputs of ecosystem service levels supplied and demanded

3.0 www.naturalcapitalproject.org

www.naturalcapitalproject.org

The Natural Capital Project 1. Co-developing knowledge 2. Co-developing practical tools 3. Implementing in real-world 4. Replicating & scaling successes

3 rd Story: Real-World Decisions Identifying Alternatives Decisions Institutions Ecosystems Human Well-Being Services (Daily et al. 2009 Frontiers) (Polasky & Segerson 2009 ARRE)

The Natural Capital Project Vancouver Is., BC Puget Sound California Hawai i Ecuador Chesapeake Bay Galveston Bay Belize Colombia Amazon Basin Uganda, Rwanda, DR Congo Tanzania Coastal & Marine Terrestrial China Sumatra

Land Use Decisions in Hawai`i Hawai i 1.Food security, energy security, economic security 2.Incentives for reforestation

Kamehameha Schools Land Assets

A new approach, balancing Economic value Environmental value Cultural value Educational value Community value

Kamehameha Schools Land Assets

North Shore, O`ahu Land Use Planning Island of O`ahu

Current Landscape

But, what should this landscape look like in the future to balance these goals??

Developing scenarios

Growing a biofuels feedstock Sugarcane

Expanding residential development Housing

Diversified agriculture & forestry Reforestation Food crops for local markets

Changes in Ecosystem Services Biofuels Carbon Storage Water Quality Water Yield Income Subdivision Ag & Forestry (Goldstein et al. 2012 PNAS)

Diversified agriculture & forestry ~ the desired balance, with income, climate stability and clean water benefits.

The Natural Capital Project 1. Co-developing knowledge 2. Co-developing practical tools 3. Implementing in real-world 4. Replicating & scaling successes

4 th Story: Replication & Scaling Identifying Alternatives Decisions Institutions Ecosystems Human Well-Being Services (Daily et al. 2009 Frontiers) (Polasky & Segerson 2009 ARRE)

Water Funds in L. America L America 1. Secure water supplies 2.Target investments

Urban Water Security

Targeting Investments Which activities? Where in the watershed?

Targeting investments: which activities? Biophysical Data Slope Water yield Soil depth Erosivity Patch size Distance from river Erosion control

Targeting investments: which activities? Biophysical Data Stakeholder Preferences Slope Water yield Soil depth Erosivity Patch size Distance from river Erosion control

Targeting investments: which activities? Biophysical Data Stakeholder Preferences Activity Rankings Slope Water yield Soil depth Erosivity Patch size Distance from river Erosion control High priority Low priority Fencing Conservation Silvopastoral Reforestation

Targeting investments: where? Activity Rankings High priority Low priority Fencing Conservation Silvopastoral Reforestation

Targeting investments: where? Activity Rankings Cost Data High priority Cost Low priority Fencing Conservation Silvopastoral Reforestation

Targeting investments: where? Activity Rankings Cost Data Investment Portfolio High priority Low priority Fencing Conservation Silvopastoral Reforestation Cost Activity Fencing Conservation Silvopastoral Reforestation

A standardized approach Scaling up to 40 L.A. cities now Testing in Africa (Vogl et al. In prep.)

Development Decisions in China 1.New Conservation Areas China 2.National ES Assessment 3.Gross Ecosystem Product

Development Decisions in China Where & what should we protect?

China s Ecosystem Function Conservation Areas flood control biodiversity water resources soil fertility sandstorm control

Implementing EFCA Pilots Miyun watershed Key surface water source Link ES & HWB w/ PES Ankang Source area of SNWTP How do env. policies impact livelihoods & HWB? Hainan First eco-province How to integrate ES into sustainable land-use?

Miyun Watershed & Reservoir Only surface water source for Beijing

Miyun Watershed Mountainous forest, Great Wall of China Two major river systems 15,800 km 2 (Wales = 20,000 km 2 ) Shared governance Beijing: 1/4 land area Hebei: 3/4 in land area Miyun Reservoir Beijing City

Mean precipitation (mm) Runoff (10 8 m 3 ) Stresses on the Reservoir Declining inflow Increasing population 800 35 700 Mean precipitation Runoff 30 600 500 400 300 200 25 20 15 10 100 5 0 1953-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 0

Total nitrogen concentration (mg/l) Total nitrogen concentration (mg/l) Total nitrogen concentration (mg/l) Total nitrogen conce 1.5 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Stresses 1.0 on the Reservoir 0.5 0.0 Increasing nutrient pollution 6 river Chaohe River 5 4 3 2 3.01 river Baihe River 2.50 2.0 Industrial effluent Wastewater Agricultural runoff 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

PES + Livelihoods Framework

Paddy Land Conversion Program Program goal: increase water yield & improve water quality Enrolled 7000+ ha of ag land (2006-2010) Payment $1100 - $1300 USD per ha per year http://www.chinadiscover.org/ http://www.thehindu.com

Water Yield & Nutrient Export

Aggregate Costs & Benefits Cost Benefit Cost Benefit Cost Benefit

Implementing EFCA Pilots Miyun watershed: Key surface water source Link ES & HWB w/ PES Ankang: Source area of SNWTP How do env. policies impact livelihoods & HWB? Hainan: First eco-province How to integrate ES into sustainable land-use?

Water Security for Beijing Ankang Migration & Poverty Alleviation Program Goals: Beijing water suppy; alleviate poverty & risk of hazards Moving: 2.4 M people (2011-2020) Compensation / Investment: 100 Billion

Feedback from Survey 74

Key Decision Contexts 1. National security and development 2. Local land-use planning Vancouver Is., BC 3. Water security Puget Sound Chesapeake Bay California 4. Agriculture Galveston Bay Belize Hawai i Colombia Ecuador Amazon Basin Uganda, Rwanda, DR Congo Tanzania Coastal & Marine Terrestrial China 5. Infrastructure design & investment 6. Disaster risk reduction 7. (Sustainable cities) 8. (Corporate reporting) Sumatra

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Lessons So Far

Lessons So Far Natural sciences How system works What is possible Social sciences How system works What is possible Humanities What matters What is fair How can we shift the social-ecological system? What are the meanings and values of ecosystems to residents (local global)? How can we elicit and shift values in a way that informs decision-making and achieves a desirable balance?

Lessons So Far 1. Process for co-development of knowledge (Ruckelshaus et al. 2013)

Lessons So Far 1. Process for co-development of knowledge 2. Utility of simple production function models (Ruckelshaus et al. 2013)

Lessons So Far 1. Process for co-development of knowledge 2. Utility of simple production function models 3. Capacity, ownership, trust, success (Ruckelshaus et al. 2013)

Lessons So Far 1. Process for co-development of knowledge 2. Utility of simple production function models 3. Capacity, ownership, trust, success 4. Values and metrics of value (Ruckelshaus et al. 2013)

Lessons So Far 1. Process for co-development of knowledge 2. Utility of simple production function models 3. Capacity, ownership, trust, success 4. Values and metrics of value 5. Knowledge gap in linking BES - HWB (Ruckelshaus et al. 2013)