Climate Smart Agriculture in Pakistan Current status and Future challenges Dr. Tasneem Khaliq Assistant Professor Agro-Climatology Lab., Department of Agronomy University of Agriculture Faisalabad
Overview Introduction Agriculture Sector Key statistics Climate of Pakistan Major Crops grown in Pakistan Agricultural Problems in Pakistan Water Availability and Future Scenario Challenges/ Issues in Agriculture Available level of climate forecasts Use of climate forecast in Agriculture Case studies
Introduction Land area of Pakistan is 79.6 M ha Total area under cultivation 23.8 M ha Contributes 20% to GDP Employment opportunities for 45% of the country s labour force Majority of the rural population depends upon this sector for its livelihood
Agricultural Sector Key Statistics Contribution to GDP 21.4% Labor Force Employment 45.0% Average Growth during last 6 years 3.7% Contribution of different Sub-Sectors in Agriculture s GDP 1. Crops (Wheat, Rice, Cotton, S. cane) 32% 2. Livestock 55% 3. Fisheries 4.0% 4. Forestry 2.0% 5. Others 7.0% Share in Export Earnings (Raw/Processed) 1. Cotton + Cotton Based Products 64.7% 2. Fruits, Rice, Fish, Leather 18.2% 3. Others 17.1% (Govt. of Pakistan, 2016)
Agriculture universities in Pakistan 1. Punjab 11 2. Sindh 04 3. KPK 04 4. Baluchistan 04 5. Kashmir 02 6. Gilgit Baltistan 01 Total 26
Organogram of Department of Agriculture
Climatic Classification of Pakistan u Arid, semi arid, sub humid and humid u 2/3 of the area of Pakistan lies under arid climate u Light brown and dark brown spots indicating aridity in the country
Climate of Pakistan Subtropical arid zone to semi-arid climate June is the hottest month (48 C) in the plains July in the mountainous areas, with temperatures over 38 C, The mean monthly minimum temp is only 4 C in December/January Average annual precipitation is estimated at 494 mm. Maximum rainfall is1500 mm in the north Most of the rainfall in Pakistan originates from summer monsoons
Agro-ecological Zones
Crop distribution in the country
Major Crops Cotton Wheat Rice Sugarcane Maize
Importance major crops in Pakistan Crop Value addition Economy Agri. GDP Share Area Production Av. Yield (%) (%) M. Ha M. tons ton/ha Wheat 9.9 2.0 9.2 25.5 2.75 Rice 3.1 0.6 2.75 6.8 2.48 Cotton 5.1 1.0 2.9 10.07 * 0.6 Sugarcane 3.2 0.6 1.13 65.48 57.84 * Bales
Productivity Enhancement Crops Production 1947-48 (000 tons) Production 2013-14 (000 tons) Times increase wheat 2637 19470 7 Rice 253 3481 14 Cotton in 000 bales 735 9526 13 Sugarcane 3972 43700 11 Maize 168 3719 20 Potato 24 3639 152 Citrus (1957-58) 79 1930 24 Mango (1957-58) 102 1280 13 Guava (1957-58) 15 379 25
Agricultural Problems in Pakistan A. TECHNO-ECONOMIC PROBLEMS Limited cultivable area Low yield per unit area Conventional methods of production Lack of high efficiency irrigation facilities Inadequate supply of agricultural inputs Decreasing availability of water Lack of R & D and Decision Support System for site specific production technology
Water Resources of Pakistan Rainfall Annual rainfall (125mm in South-East to 750mm North-West) Total water generated by rainfall is around 32 BCM Contribution to crops is 10-20% Groundwater Exploitation of Groundwater is 59 BCM Over 9,00,000 private tube wells 40% of total supply at farm-gate Surface Water Resources Total Inflow is 171 BCM Tarbela (10.38 BCM - 485 ft), Mangla (5.90 BCM - 380 ft) 48 Canals (61000 km), 19 Barrages 1,70,000 Watercourses (1.6 Million km)
Future Water Scenario Year Population Water availability (Million) per capita (m 3 ) 1951 34 5300 1961 46 3950 1971 65 2700 1981 84 2100 1991 115 1600 2000 148 1200 2010 168 1066 2020 196 915 2025 209 850 2030 220 636
Environmental Issues Global warming Climate change Continuous Floods (2010, 2012, 2013) Occurrence of extreme weather events Drought Increasing Insect/pest infestation
Current Level of Climate Forecast Availability Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) provide following services 1. Data recording, generation and dissemination services 2. Flood forecast and warning services. 3. Farmer's Weather Bulletin and Warning Services. 4. Numerical weather forecasting 5. Climate change scenarios for Pakistan (AR4, AR5) on resolution of 25km and 50km 6. Seasonal forecast 7. Drought monitoring and warning services 8. Crop reports 9. Seasonal out look Pakistan
Use of Weather/Climate Information in Agriculture
International PROJECTS 1.Assessing climatic vulnerability and projecting crop productivity using integrated crop and economic modeling techniques YEARS/ FUNDING 2012-2016 AgMIP DFID STATUS/ AMOUNT Ongoing 400000 $ 2. International grant on Biochar production, awareness and commercialization to mitigate Climate Change British Council Completed 60000 $ 3. Climate Change Chair under Centre for Advance Studies-Food Security & Agriculture (CAS-FSA) 2013 USAID USDA Ongoing 28.8 million $
International PROJECTS YEARS/ FUNDING STATUS/ AMOUNT 4. Agriculture Information System 5. Global Earth Observation System of Systems/Asian Water Cycle Initiative Indus River Basin Research Activities Under the Framework of the GEOSS Asian Water Cycle Initiative 2012 USDA-FAO 2014 GEOSS AWCI Ongoing 300000 $ Starting
National PROJECTS YEARS/ FUNDING STATUS/ AMOUNT 1. Modeling the impact of climate change on wheat productivity in Punjab 2. Use of spectral reflectance to estimate growth, biomass and yield of different wheat cultivars, under moisture stress conditions 2006-2009 HEC 2008-2011 ALP Completed 20000 $ Completed 37000 $ 3. Optimization of Bt. Cotton production technology for different agro-ecological zones in the face of changing climate through simulation modeling. ALP Ongoing 60000 $
National PROJECTS YEARS/ FUNDING STATUS/ AMOUNT 4. Assessing climate risk and developing mitigation strategies for cotton productivity under changing climatescenarios in Punjab 5. Assessing risk, reducing vulnerability and protracting rice productivity under changing climate 2013 HEC 2014 HEC Ongoing 38000 $ Ongoing 30000 $
Department of Agriculture (Ext &AR) u Zonal Adaptive research Farms optimizing production technologies under prevailing conditions. u Village level farmer training programs u Production plans for each crop is available for selection of crops under variable weathers u Plant clinics in each cropping zone giving warning and solution for plant protection in the season u News letters for farmers also containing warning and management practices to cope with the issue
u Training Manuals for all major crops also helping farmers to manage crops under different environments u Calling Help lines are available for farmers to get guidance and solutions for their problems u Advisory Services on the basis weather forecast for crop management practices especially sowing, irrigation, spraying pesticide and harvesting operations. u Selection of crops according to the forecast of PMD especially in Kharif (Summer) season. u Special crop practices under extreme events like drainage of excessive water from cotton/maize fields in rainy season. u Application of irrigation at specificplant growthstages
Department of Agriculture Research u Established climatic zone specific research institute and arid, rainfed and semiarid areas. u Breeding against drought and Heat u Conservation agricultural research u Application of crop models for optimization of crop production technology u Application of crop models Crop monitoring and forecast u Introduction of new crops/alternate crops under changing climate like quinoa, hybrid millets/sorghum for cereal purpose
Case Studies
AgMIP Methodology u Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to generate future weather data u Two crop models (DSSAT and APSIM) were used to simulate yield and to assess climate change impact u Economic model (TOA-MD) was used to quantify the climate vulnerabilities and adaptabilities
Climate Change Impact on Rice Rice results of APSIM and DSSAT for 155 Farms Variation with 5-GCMs in Rice Region of Punjab-Pakistan, Mean yield reduction by DSSAT and APSIM was 15.2 and 17.2%. 7000 DSSAT Model 6000 Yield Kgha -1 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Baseline IEXA IIXA IKXA IOXA IRXA Climate Models Baseline IEXA-GCM-CCSM4 IIXA-GCM-GFDL-ESM2M IKXA-GCM-HadGEM2-ES IOXA-GCM-MIROC5 IRXA-GCM-MPI-ESM-MR 29
Climate Change Impact on Wheat Wheat results of APSIM and DSSAT for 155 Farms Variation with 5-GCMs in Rice-wheat Region of Punjab-Pakistan, Mean yield reduction by DSSAT and APSIM was 14.1and 12%.
For Crop Models For TOA-MD Adaptation Package Sr. # Variable Direction of Change %age Change Rice Wheat 1 Nitrogen/hectare (Kg) Increase 15 25 2 Sowing Density (Plant/m 2 ) Increase 15 30 3 Irrigation Decrease 15 25 4 Sowing Dates Decrease 5 Days 15 Days %age Change Sr. # Variable Direction of Change Rice Wheat 1 Average House Hold Persons Increase 40 40 2 Non Agricultural Income Increase 40 40 3 Yield Increase 55 60 4 Price of Output Increase 65 70 5 Variable Production Cost Increase 55 50
Findings of AgMIP There would be an increase of 2.8 C in day and 2.2 C in night temperature with 571 ppm CO 2 in Punjab for mid-century (2040-2069) (AgMIP, Pak. 2013) The per capita water availability is decreasing in Pakistan and we will have to model it for secure future Mean yield reduction by DSSAT and APSIM was 15.2 and 17.2% for rice and 14.1and 12% for wheat by DSSAT and APSIM respectively
Ø The results of analysis showed that for the rice wheat system after adaptation, the number of adopters would be 84 and 88.38 percent for DSSAT and APSIM, respectively Ø Mean net returns per farm were Rs. 1541525 and Rs. 1771493 for with-adaptation case for overall DSSAT and APSIM model Ø Overall poverty rates of population were reducd 17.11 and 16.39 percent for APSIM and DSSAT, respectively Ø Per capita income (Rs./person/annum) for adopters were Rs. 195481 and Rs. 224030 for DSSAT and APSIM respectively
Future Needs u u u Better collaboration of PMD with Agriculture department Capacity building of stake holder for better understanding the forecasts. Contingency crop production plans with collaboration of PMD
drtasneem@uaf.edu.pk