Large-scale rollout of Concentrating Solar Power in South Africa Max Edkins Climate Strategies Side Event Bonn 5 June 2009 Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town 1 ERC
South Africa s LTMS Peak Plateau Decline Source: DEAT 2008 2 ERC
LTMS renewables extended electricity projection 180 160 GW installed capacity 140 120 100 80 60 50% from CSP 40 20 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 Existing coal Mothballed coal Super critical coal FBC IGCC OCGT liquid fuels OCGT nat gas CCGT PWR nuclear PBMR Hydro Landfill gas Solar trough Solar tower Solar PV Wind Biomass Pumped storage 2045 2047 2049 Source: Winkler 2007 3 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey 2009 4 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey 2009 5 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey 2009 6 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey 2009 7 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey 2009 8 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey 2009 9 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey 2009 10 ERC
The four main CSP technologies Parabolic Trough Linear Fresnel Dish Sterling Systems Solar Tower Source: renac 2009 11 ERC
Commercial Deployment globally Source: WRI 2009 12 ERC
CSP components Source: renac 2009 13 ERC
CSP Plant Design options Source: WRI 2009 14 ERC
Quantifying - what is large-scale CSP rollout? LTMS 27% renewable energy target by 2050 -new build Source: Winkler 2007 15 ERC
Quantifying - what is large-scale CSP rollout? LTMS 50% renewable energy target by 2050 -new build Source: Winkler 2007 16 ERC
Quantifying - CSP Costs = 2.4B ZAR/64 MW = 3.75B ZAR/100 MW = 3.9B ZAR/50 MW = 7.8B ZAR/100 MW = 0.6B ZAR/11 MW = 5.1B ZAR/100 MW Source: renac 2009 17 ERC
Investment costs Assuming cost reductions of 15% for every doubling of CSP capacity deployed For 27% target: ZAR 30-50 Billion per year (3.8 6.3 Billion US$) For 50% target: ZAR 30-60 Billion per year till 2030 (3.8 7.5 Billion US$) & ZAR 50-100 Billion per year thereafter (6.3 12.5 Billion US$) 18 ERC
Expressed in Levelised Electricity Price (per kwh) Cost estimates of CSP from literature (expressed in 2008 ZAR at and exchange rate of ZAR 8 to the US $) and projected avarage electricity price in South Africa 300,00 Sargent and Lundy, 2003 250,00 Solar Task Force, 2006 DLR, 2005 200,00 World Bank & GEF, 2006 150,00 100,00 CleanEdge & Co-op America Foundation, 2008 Prometheus Institute & Greentech Media, 2008 Eskom, 2008 Projected average electricity price (high end) 50,00 Past average electricity price Projected average electricity price (low end) 0,00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Year Source: Edkins 2008 19 ERC
Drivers for CSP rollout 20 ERC
Drivers for CSP rollout 21 ERC
Drivers for CSP rollout 3.3 to 5.4 times the total electricity requirement forecast for South Africa for the year 2025 22 ERC Source: Fluri, 2009
Financial Driver Since March 26th 2009 Renewable Energy Feed In Tariff (REFIT) in South Africa For CSP = ZAR 2.10/kWh (0.19 Euro/kWh) Overall positively received: 70% of stakeholders surveyed thought it was very and overwhelmingly sufficient. 23 ERC
Stakeholder workshop 45 Participants Government, CSP Developers, Industry, NGOs & Research Institutes - 3 discussion focus groups: Technology, Infrastructure & Industry support - International support & Indicators Survey 24 ERC
International Support Financial support most valuable (76% of survey respondents): Venture capital for CSP start ups Feasibility studies support Research support Grid expansion South Africa specific R&D Also technical support: South African demonstration plants Storage technology Industry supply base And policy & institutional capacity building support: Refine REFIT Managerial support to REPA under Single Buyer Office 25 ERC
Barrier highlights Technology Seeing is believing - need to complete 1st plant Need to import technology Storage requirement in REFIT Backup fuel Infrastructure Major grid expansion - Transmission Planning Study required - funding question Water (300 000m 3 /year) - dry cooling will have to be used 26 ERC
More barriers Industry Development great potential Investment risk Wrong branding by Eskom: test plant should become a solar industry development program CSP components - need planning framework for Industrial Development Zone Legal and Regulatory REFIT vs DME bidding process potential conflict Process for PPA exists, but PPA not seen yet EIA may pose to be an issue especially water use Eskom monopoly and lack of transparency 27 ERC
Intermediate Indicators Intermediate progress indicator GHG mitigated Not at all Not successful Somewhat Successful Very Successful Electricity produced from CSP Plants (kwh) CSP Plant licenses issued CSP Plants under construction Committed finance to CSP developments % of CSP in national planning process Amount of land and water rights committed to CSP development % of CSP developers engaged in South Africa % of CSP developers with offices in South Africa 28 ERC
Thank you! 29 ERC