Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Cornerstone of Future Energy Generation?
AGENDA LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL INTRODUCTION ON CSP TECHNOLOGY MARKETS BENEFITS AND CHALLENGES POLICY CONCLUSION Slide 2
Lahmeyer International Slide 3
Scope of Services Slide 4
Experiences in 165 Countries Slide 5
AGENDA LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL INTRODUCTION ON CSP TECHNOLOGY MARKETS BENEFITS AND CHALLENGES POLICY CONCLUSION Slide 6
Solar Thermal Power - Introduction Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants are thermal power plants Heat from converted solar radiation is used to generate electricity Operational experience of more than 20 years Suitable conditions around the global sunbelt About 11 GW are currently under development in about 80 projects Current core markets: Spain and USA Operation & Construction Planning & Development Demonstration Slide 7
Solar Resources 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 kwh/m²*a Slide 8 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Site Selection Top Down Approach Slide 9
AGENDA LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL INTRODUCTION ON CSP TECHNOLOGY MARKETS BENEFITS AND CHALLENGES POLICY CONCLUSION Slide 10
Working principle of a CSP Power Plant Mirrors concentrate the sun irradiation in a focus A heat transfer fluid (HTF) is heated up in a receiver and pumped to a heat exchanger Linked to a conventional team cycle Slide 11
Technology Concepts Solar Tower Systems Parabolic Trough Systems Solar Tower Systems Dish Stirling Systems Linear Fresnel Systems Slide 12
Parabolic Trough 50 MW, 7.5h Storage Slide 13
CSP project risks by Technology HIGH Dish Sterling Solar Tower Linear Fresnel Perceived Risk Parabolic Trough LOW LOW Bankability HIGH Slide 14
AGENDA INTRODUCTION ON CSP TECHNOLOGY MARKETS BENEFITS AND CHALLENGES POLICY IMPLEMENTATION CONCLUSION Slide 15
Commercial CSP Plants - Overview Commercial CSP plants in operation SEGS I-IX, USA 354 MW since 1985 Nevada Solar One, USA 64 MW since 2007 PS-10, ES 11 MW since 2007 APS Saguaro, USA 1 MW since 2005 Liddell Power Station, AU 1 MW (solar - coal hybrid) since 2004 ANDASOL 1, ES 50 MW since 2008 Commercial CSP plants going into operation soon PS-20, ES 20 MW 2008 / 2009 ANDASOL 2, ES 50 MW 2009 Commercial CSP plants under construction or just before ground-breaking: Solnova 1-3, Palma del Río 1, Hassi R Mel, Ain Beni Mathar, La Risca 1, Kuraymat, Puertollano, Extresol 1, More than 80 CSP plants under development Slide 16
Installed Capacity Snapshot Installed Commercial Capacity as of 2008 Europe 13% 479 MW USA 87% Slide 17
Expected Installed Capacity in 2015 Installed Commercial Capacity expeced in 2015 Africa 4% North America 40% Asia 3% 6,400 MW Middle & South America 6% Middle East 10% Europe 37% Slide 18
Utilities and IPP Owners Utility / IPP Acciona Solar Iberdrola ENEL EDP Endesa Eskom Countries ES, USA ES, Egypt ES, ITL ES ES SA ADFEC SAMCA FPL Energy UAE ES USA Slide 19
New Approaches of Project Valuation Conventional Project Value Solar Thermal Project Market line Benchmark Risk driver Fuel prices Environmental costs Value driver Portfolio effect Options value Risk Slide 20
AGENDA LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL INTRODUCTION ON CSP TECHNOLOGY MARKETS BENEFITS & CHALLENGES POLICY CONCLUSION Slide 21
Rationale for Solar Thermal Power Use Locally available renewable & secure energy resource Reliable source of energy high dispatchability Adjustable towards load & tariff scheme high value electricity Serves as hedge against volatile fuel prices Very low greenhouse gas emissions Short developing and construction time of 2-3 years No additional burden on environment Creation of a new profitable market Slide 22
Plant Assembly and Operation Slide 23
Electrical Output and Tariff I Slide 24
Electrical Output and Tariff II Slide 25
Electrical Output and Tariff III Slide 26
Challenges Reduction of investment costs Sellers' market on key components High amount of parasitics mainly through pumping Limited up-scaling potential Higher steam temperatures increase turbine efficiency Direct steam production for better system efficiency Huge water consumption in terms of wet cooling Illiquid capital markets Slide 27
Cost Reduction Potential Technology Efficiency improvement New technologies Innovative plant concepts Supply Chain Higher production volumes Standardization Supply Chain Management (JIT, JIS) Plant Assembly & Operation mode Project Development Multi Contracting Supplier diversification Higher Risk Mitigation: Joint Venture building Market More supplier entering the market Supplier diversification Slide 28
AGENDA LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL INTRODUCTION ON CSP TECHNOLOGY MARKETS BENEFITS AND CHALLENGES POLICY CONCLUSION Slide 29
Cornerstones of Success HIGH NON-BANKABLE PROJECT Market Conditions Government Support Perceived Risk BANKABLE PROJECTS PROJECT ECONOMICS CONTRACT STRUCTURE GUARANTEES LOW LOW Bankability HIGH SPONSOR SUPPORT Slide 30
CSP projects & Incentive schemes HIGH Tendering NON-BANKABLE PROJECTS Obligation Perceived Risk CL TR UAE US ES Fiscal Feed-in Tariffs LOW LOW Bankability BANKABLE PROJECTS HIGH Slide 31
Example Feed-in Tariff Requirements in Turkey Feed in tariff requirements Base case conditions 33 Feed in tariff [cteur/kwh] 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 30.82 29.65 26.69 25.46 29.54 28.51 25.54 24.48 28.41 27.40 24.52 23.49 27.54 26.40 23.73 22.53 27.21 25.93 23.73 22.04 PÖYRY 10 LI 10 PÖYRY 13 LI 13 21 20 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Maturity [years] Slide 32
AGENDA LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL INTRODUCTION ON CSP TECHNOLOGY MARKETS BENEFITS AND CHALLENGES POLICY CONCLUSION Slide 33
Conclusions CSP has potential for utility scale energy generation Generation adaptable towards market Limited suitability to feed central Europe Inventive schemes are currently indispensible Grid parity achievable in short to mid term Cornerstone of future energy generation? Depends on your residence! But definitely another important brick in the wall! Slide 34
Thank you for your attention! Contact Information Daniel Gudopp Email: daniel.gudopp@lahmeyer.de Land line: +49 (0) 6101 55 1916 Fax: +49 (0) 6101 55 2101 Slide 35
Solar Electricity Generating Systems (SEGS) Solar Thermal Power Plants at Kramer Junction, California 5 x 30 MW Constructed between 1985 and 1991, still in operation Slide 36
Operating since 2007: 64 MW Nevada Solar One Slide 37
Start of operation in 2008: ANDASOL 1 in Spain Slide 38
Thermal Energy Storage TES Comes with higher investment costs, but Enhances power output Brings down LEC of power generated State-of-art tanks contains 28,000 tons of molten salt Slide 39
Project Participants Government Concession Contract License Agreement SPV DEBT Commercial banks Development banks Capital market Utility Purchase agreement Dispatch agreement Funds Green Energy Funds Development Funds Gas Supplier Take or Pay contract EPC O&M Solar Field Power Block HTF System BOP EQUITY INVESTORS Project Sponsors Passive Equity Subordinated debt Civil Works Slide 40
Development, Construction & Operation time Slide 41