UNHCR Cash Assistance Assessment of the Jordanian Marketplace Multi-Market Assessment Jordan 2017
Assessment of the Jordanian Marketplace
Executive Summary Why do we conduct market assessments? Why conduct a market assessment in Jordan?
Objectives Is Cash the appropriate response? How did the Jordanian market respond to Syrian refugee crisis? What was the effect on the supply chain? Key Findings Cash assistance is an appropriate intervention to support Syrian refugees The supply chain can expand quickly Food prices have remained steady Syrian and Iraqi border closings caused havoc on the markets Non-cash assistance can be seen as impediment to small-medium sized retailers
The Supply Chain
Poultry Supply Chain Map External Environment Natural Environment and Resources Poultry Producers Union Pressures Iraqi and Syrian Border Closings Increasing Consumption Trends Importers (hatching eggs and 1 day chicks) 750K eggs imported; number of 1 day chicks imported unknown (2012) Small breeding farms and hatcheries Small/Medium broiler farms 1,722 broiler farms total in Jordan; 194.2 M birds produced (2012) Large poultry meat producers Distributors Distributors Small private slaughterhouses State-owned slaughterhouse 250K MT of poultry meat produced (2017) Distributors Importers (poultry meat) Butchers (small) Small shops Supermarkets 295K MT of poultry meat for consumers (2017) Consumers Exporters 55K MT of poultry meat imported (2017) 10K MT of poultry meat exported (2017) 9.4M eggs exported; number of 1 day chicks exported unknown (2012)
Cucumber Supply Chain Map External Environment Natural Environment and Resources Farmers Union Pressures Iraqi and Syrian Border Closings Importers 0 MT cucumber imports due to the closure of the Syrian-Jordanian border (2017) Large Farms Packing House 90% of large and small farmers sell cucumbers to central wholesale markets (2015) Central Wholesale Markets Exporters 19K MT of cucumbers exported (2016) Small Wholesalers Small Farms 231K MT of cucumbers produced in small and large farms (2015) Middlemen/ Dealers Vegetable/Fruit Grocery Shops Supermarkets Consumers
Rice Supply Chain Map External Environment Natural Environment and Resources Increasing Consumption Trends Changes in International Rice Market Importers Private Packagers and Distributors Large wholesalers Small wholesalers 210K MT of milled rice expected to be imported for 2017/2018 (USDA) Small Shops Supermarkets Consumers Average annual consumption of rice about 24 kg per person (USDA)
Hygiene Supply Chain Map External Environment Changes in International Hygiene Product Market Iraqi and Syrian Border Closings Exporters Private Packagers Importers and Distributors Large wholesalers Small wholesalers Domestic Producers Small Shops Supermarkets Consumers
Key Findings: Retailers and Wholesalers
Core Good Supply: Able to source core good in less than a week? Price: Temporary increase in response to increases in demand? Demand: Has demand for core good changed in the past year? : Yes?: Unclear : Decreased =: Stayed the Same
Core Good Supply: Able to source core good in less than a week? Price: Temporary increase in response to increases in demand? Demand: Has demand for core good changed in the past year?? * : Yes?: Unclear : Decreased =: Stayed the Same *Perceptions of demand were split among retailers selling cucumbers. One-third reported that demand had decreased, one-third that demand had increased, and one-third that demand had stayed the same.
Core Good Supply: Able to source core good in less than a week? Price: Temporary increase in response to increases in demand? Demand: Has demand for core good changed in the past year?? * = = : Yes?: Unclear : Decreased =: Stayed the Same *Perceptions of demand were split among retailers selling cucumbers. One-third reported that demand had decreased, one-third that demand had increased, and one-third that demand had stayed the same.
Core Good Supply: Able to source core good in less than a week? Price: Temporary increase in response to increases in demand? Demand: Has demand for core good changed in the past year?? * = = = = : Yes?: Unclear : Decreased =: Stayed the Same *Perceptions of demand were split among retailers selling cucumbers. One-third reported that demand had decreased, one-third that demand had increased, and one-third that demand had stayed the same.
Supply and Demand Wholesalers Perspective Wholesalers reported three factors that have the largest impacts on the market: 50% 33% 17% Border closings The state of the Jordanian economy The Syrian refugee crisis
Key Findings: Price
Cost in JOD Price - Food 25 20 WFP Food Basket Average Cost, 2016 2017 (in JOD) 15 10 5 0 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Month/Year WFP DOS Sources: World Food Programme (WFP) and Jordan Department of Statistics (DOS) Sources: Jordan Department of Statistics
Consumer Price Index for Food and Shelter, 2012 2017 120 700,000 600,000 500,000 110 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 100 0 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Food Syrian Refugees Sources: CPI data Jordan Department of Statistics; Syrian Refugee data - UNHCR
Additional Market Challenges
Perceptions of Retailers and Wholesalers: Border Closings Wholesalers perceived a larger economic impact from the Syrian-Jordan border closing: 91% 60% 40% 9% Syria Iraq Severely Moderately
When I imported carrots from Turkey in the past, I paid 2,000 USD and the distance over land was only 600 km. Now, the carrots have to go through the Black Sea, then the Mediterranean Sea, and then through Israel to reach Jordan. Now, I have to pay 6,000 USD for the same amount of imported carrots, but I can t raise the price for consumers because then they would not buy them. Mohammed, a trader at the Amman central wholesale market for fruits and vegetables
Perceptions of Retailers and Wholesalers: Non-Cash Assistance Syrian refugees should get cash assistance instead of food vouchers and coupons so that there is more movement in the local markets and higher cash flow. - Mohammed, shop owner, Ramtha
Recommendations to the Basic Needs Working Group Raise awareness about the positive impact that Syrian refugees can and are having on the market Counter the narrative that Syrian refugees have caused massive disruption to the market Review the impact that partnerships with large retailers/malls for cash and non-cash modalities (e.g., vouchers, JoMoPay etc.) may have on smaller retailers and wholesalers to see if the impacts can be mitigated