The Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats Jennifer Plunket Stewardship Coordinator North Inlet-Winyah Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve jen@belle.baruch.sc.edu Carolinas Climate Resilience Conference, 2016 Session D: Integrating Climate into Conservation & Natural Resources Management
CC Habitat Vulnerability tool developed Tool tested and refined Tool applied in NE and SE
Reserve Vulnerability Assessment Tool Spec. Sheet: Habitat based and site-specific User defined, local knowledge Climate X non-climate stressors Output management actions
Vulnerability Assessment Framework Heavy precipitation events Exposure: Sensitivity: Un-buffered stream edge Erosion, water quality issues Potential Impact: Vegetated buffer Adaptive Capacity: Complete loss of habitat VULNERABILITY: Fully functional habitat
Exposure and Sensitivity Climate Stressors Non-climate Stressors Invasives CO 2 Precip. Temp. Direct Effects Sea Level Extreme Climate N, P Nutrients Sedimentation Erosion Current Condition DEFINED HABITAT AREA Contamination
Exposure and Sensitivity Interactions Climate Stressors Non-climate Stressors CO 2 Precip. Temp. Sea Level Extreme Climate Invasives N, P Nutrients Sedimentation Erosion Adaptive Capacity Contamination
Assessment Process Local land manger Expert Elicitation Facilitator FWS biologist TNC biologist Guidance Document Site manger Land trust rep. Vulnerability Score Excel Spreadsheet
Pilot Project Outcomes Definition Clarification: HABITAT Ecological USFWS NWI: palustrine, emergent, persistent, regularly flooded Management Former rice impoundment managed by S.C. DNR for waterfowl
Pilot Project Outcomes Definition Clarification: CHANGE Ideal Non-functional
Pilot Project Outcomes Overall Vulnerability Very High High Moderate Low Very Low
Adaptive Capacity Pilot Project Outcomes Components of Vulnerability Primary Dune Scrub/ Shrub Salt marsh Long leaf Restored Marsh Primary Dune Impounded Marsh Flooded Forest Urban Marsh Urban Marsh Exposure-Sensitivity South Carolina sites are in italics Size of circle = 4(maximum certainty)- certainty score
Applications Rhode Island Question: Vegetation loss in marshes. What should (can) be done to improve resilience? Habitat Definition: Saltmarsh includes upper and lower salt meadow, transitional mixed class, water, bare ground, invasive, dominant, and upland border features. Management units were subdivided. Application: Coastal and Estuarine Habitat Restoration Trust Fund project planning
Applications New England Question: Relative vulnerability regionally, what drives differences, what is the state of knowledge Great Bay NERR Wells NERR Habitat Definition: site specific, but likely toward ecological Application: Broader management considerations, direction of research efforts, shared learning for future collaboration Narragansett Bay NERR Waquoit Bay NERR
Applications New England Question: Relative vulnerability regionally, what drives differences, what is the state of knowledge Great Bay NERR Wells NERR Habitat Definition: site specific, but likely toward ecological Application: Broader management considerations, direction of research efforts, shared learning for future collaboration Narragansett Bay NERR Waquoit Bay NERR
Applications Southeastern Intertidal Marshes Question: Differences in projected SLR, geology, stressors, current condition Currituck Banks Habitat Definition: Emergent salt-marsh, may be some site specific variation Application: Broader management considerations, direction of research efforts, shared learning for future collaboration Masonboro Island Zeke s Island North Inlet Rachel Carson
SLR Trends Duck, NC Oregon Inlet Marina, NC Beaufort, NC Wilmington, NC Southport, NC Springmaid Pier, SC 0 1 2 3 4 5 Water Quality: Turbidity
Applications Southeastern Intertidal Marshes Question: Differences in projected SLR, geology, stressors, current condition Currituck Banks Habitat Definition: Emergent salt-marsh, may be some site specific variation Application: Broader management considerations, direction of research efforts, shared learning for future collaboration Masonboro Island Zeke s Island North Inlet Rachel Carson
Applications Murrells Inlet and North Inlet, South Carolina Question: Effects of urbanized edge Murrells Inlet Habitat Definition: Emergent salt-marsh, including oysters and mud, nursery function Application: Potential management actions, future policy guidance North Inlet
Resilient estuaries and coastal watersheds Where human and natural communities thrive 2011 Workgroup 2013 NSC Pilot 2015-2017 New England NSC Transfer 2016-2018 NC/SC NSC Transfer www.nerrs.noaa.gov NERRS Science Collaborative http://graham.umich.edu/water/nerrs/funding
The Future Assessment team trainings North Inlet: Jan. 31 Feb. 2, 2017 North Carolina: Fall 2017 Keep in touch www.ccvatch.com SC Lead: jen@belle.baruch.sc.edu NC Lead: Hope Sutton, NC NERR, suttonh@uncw.edu