A Different Future? Robert J. Finley Illinois State Geological Survey Champaign, Illinois

Fossil Fuels, Energy Efficiency, and Carbon Emissions: A Different Future? Robert J. Finley Illinois State Geological Survey Champaign, Illinois Governor s Pollution Prevention Awards October 25, 2007 Chicago, Illinois

Presentation Outline Energy demand growth Global overview of fossil fuel reserves Changes in the global energy scene FutureGen: what is it? Carbon sequestration

Sources of Information BP Statistical Review, London (BP) Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, D.C. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) International Energy Agency, Paris (IEA) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium Chevron Corporation

Key Observations The world is on an energy express train with respect to expanding use of conventional fossil fuels Developing countries are pursuing living standards and industrialization with impacts that are just beginning to be globally felt Coal is abundant, but we need to solve coal s emissions and climate issues through new technology like IGCC and FutureGen Globally, we are adding 70 million people per year and 450 million additional vehicles are expected by 2030

World Energy Projections: 2020-2030* 2030* Oil demand growth will reach 104 mmbd in 2020, and 118 mmbd in 2030, up from 84.5 mmbd in 2006* Coal demand will grow 47 percent from 4.8 bty to 7.0 bty by 2030 In 2002, 1.6 of 6.1 billion people lacked electricity; in 2030 1.4 billion of 8.3 billion people may still lack electricity** *EIA 2007, BP, 2006 **IEA, 2001, 2002

World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel, 1980-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 250 200 150 History 38% Projections Oil Coal 34% 27% 26% 100 50 0 24% 24% Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 8% 6% Share of World Total 9% 5% EIA International Energy Outlook 2006

Regional Shares in World Energy Demand, percent (IEA, 2004) 2002 10,200 Mtoe 2030 16,325 Mtoe Developing 38 52 Developed Countries 48 43 10 Transition Economies 9

60 50 U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) History Projections Liquid Fuels 40 Coal 30 20 Natural Gas 10 Nuclear 0 Renewables 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary

World Oil Reserves (BP, 2004) Known world oil reserves will last 43 years at current rates of consumption The Middle East holds about 63 percent of proven reserves while North America holds about 6 percent

Proved Oil Reserves End 2005 (BP, 2006) 742.7 140.5

U.S. Crude Oil Production by Source, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day) 10 History Projections 8 6 Total 4 2 Alaska Deepwater Offshore Lower 48 Onshore Shallow Water Offshore 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary

25 U.S. Transportation Energy Consumption by Mode, 1980-2030 (quadrillion Btu) History Projections 20 Light-Duty Vehicles 15 10 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 5 Rail Air Water 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary

30 U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (million barrels/day) 25 History Projections 20 Consumption Net Imports 61% 15 60% 10 5 Domestic Supply 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary

18 16 14 Net Oil Imports in the United States, China, and India, 2003-2025 2025 (million barrels/day) United States 12 10 8 6 China 4 India 2 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 EIA International Energy Outlook 2006

World Natural Gas Reserves (BP, 2004) Known world gas reserves will last 64 years at current rates of consumption The former Soviet Union has 8 times the gas reserves of North America and the Middle East has 7 times

Proved Natural Gas Reserves End 2005 (BP, 2006) 64.01 72.13 14.84

U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 10 History Projections 8 Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional 6 Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore 4 2 Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore Lower 48 Associated-Dissolved Alaska 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary

28 Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 2005-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 26 Growth in Alaskan Production 24 22 Growth in LNG Imports 20 18 Base Production (all sources) Growth in Non-Associated Unconventional 16 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (EIA, 2007)

World Coal Reserves (BP, 2005) Known world coal reserves will last 312 years at current rates of consumption Three areas of the world have subequal, major coal resources: -Asia Pacific 297 billion tons -North America: 254 billion tons -Europe and Eurasia: 287 billion tons

Proved Coal Reserves End 2005 (BP, 2006) 254.4 287.1 296.9 50.3

Coal: An Old Fuel in Abundant Supply (BP, 2004) The United States: - holds 25 percent of world coal reserves - accounts for 22 percent of world production - accounts for 22 percent of world consumption ( balance between reserves, production, and use)

World Coal Demand by Sector, percent (IEA, 2004) 2002 4,791 million tons 2030 7,029 million tons Industry 16 12 Other 69 12 1 8 3 Residential Power Generation 79

20,000 18,000 World Net Electricity Generation, 2004, 2015, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 17,174 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 OECD 9,455 Non-OECD 11,120 11,169 13,190 8,000 6,969 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2004 2015 2030 North America OECD Europe OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Non-OECD Asia Middle East Africa Central & South America International Energy Outlook 2007 (EIA, 2007)

World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990-2030 (billion metric tons) 50 History 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Projections Total Coal Liquids Natural Gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 International Energy Outlook 2007 (EIA, 2007)

1.2 U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Real Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2030 (index, 1970 = 1) 1.0 0.8 per capita per dollar real GDP 0.6 0.4 History 0.2 Projections 0.0 (EIA, 2007) 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2007

Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2030 (metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP) 1,000 (EIA, 2007) 800 600 400 200 486 in 2010 407 in 2020 353 in 2030 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

9,000 U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030 (million metric tons) 8,000 7,000 History Projections 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 6,214 in 2010 6,944 in 2020 7,950 in 2030 2,000 1,000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (EIA, 2007)

Illinois Basin

296 million tons per year carbon dioxide emissions in the Illinois Basin from fixed sources

~40,548 20-ton truckloads of liquid CO 2 /day

FutureGen: Near-Zero Emission Coal-Fired Electric Generation FutureGen is a multifaceted demonstration of coal gasification, electricity generation, hydrogen production, and carbon sequestration Sequestration = CO 2 capture + transport + storage Illinois offers storage = geological sequestration potential over a wide area of the Illinois Basin

CO 2 Injection: Caprock/Seal Integrity Shale Seal Shale Seal Sandstone Reservoir

Mattoon and Tuscola FutureGen Sites Plant Sites Injection Sites Predominantly farm land Outstanding community support for FutureGen Familiarity with industrial facilities and coal mining or quarrying Excellent sequestration option on site or 10 mi via pipeline

Sequestration at Mattoon and Tuscola

Pennsylvanian coal seams adsorption on coal Mississippian sandstone and carbonate oil reservoirs CO 2 EOR in mature fields New Albany Shale adsorption on shale Maquoketa Shale St. Peter Sandstone Eau Claire Shale Mt. Simon Sandstone Illinois Basin Stratigraphic Column major saline reservoirs from Leetaru, 2004

Mt. Simon Sandstone Reservoir 4,143 ft 8,467 ft Mt. Simon Sandstone is used for natural gas storage in Champaign County, IL at 4,000 to 4,200 ft Mt. Simon core has been recovered from a few deep exploration wells, such as this sample from near Salem, IL at 8,467 drilled in 1966

CO 2 Storage in Sandstone Reservoir Pore Space Pore space Pin head Sand grain

Pin head Reservoir Caprock (shale seal)

Mt. Simon after 120 Years 80 years of injection 40 years shut-in Saline Reservoir Capacity: 19-77 Gt Illinois 29-115 Gt Illinois Basin High Porosity Low Porosity

FutureGen for Illinois: Current Status FutureGen Industrial Alliance formally announced September 13, 2005 Alliance led by 10 coal and utility companies July 25, 2006: Two Illinois sites and two Texas sites finalists from among 12 sites in 7 states NEPA Environmental Impact Statement public meetings in June 07 Final results of NEPA due Fall 07 Alliance makes final selection ~ Dec 07-Jan 08 Illinois effort led by the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity and its Office of Coal Development

Illinois Seeking FutureGen and Facilitating IGCC, Carbon Sequestration, and CO 2 EOR Illinois Office of Coal Development leading Illinois FutureGen team; IN and PA formally endorse Illinois sites IL SB 1704 provides liability protection for the Alliance and establishes monitoring responsibility at ISGS Illinois Office of Coal Development supporting IGCC projects with grants, bonding, and cofunding Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, a DOE regional sequestration partnership Illinois working across state agencies to attract more IGCC projects that use abundant Illinois coal and are optimized for carbon sequestration Illinois seeking public-private partnership to develop a CO 2 pipeline backbone to deliver CO 2 from these projects to Illinois oil fields