LAST TIME Population growth, distribution, and size in Latin America Urbanization Problems with urban growth continued The urban economy Migration

TODAY Agricultural and Rural Development Tropical Deforestation

Agricultural and Rural Development: Internal Colonization of Tropical Lowlands An example from Amazonia > 600 million ha Amazonian environments Terra firme Várza Savanna

Development history in Amazonia Early extractive uses Rubber Forestry

Development history in Amazonia Spontaneous peasant agricultural colonization Brazilian Andean

Development history in Amazonia Governmentally planned peasant colonization highways planning excessively centralized Highway location bad for soils geopolitical motives domestic political motives

Development history in Amazonia Cattle ranching Fishbone patterns

Development history in Amazonia Scale & geography of change Soil degradation on already poor soils Poor rural health Poor government planning

Development history in Amazonia Consequences Farm abandonment Consolidation by cattle ranchers and large soy farmers urbanization

Amazonian deforestation Wider consequences in Brazil speculation and abandoned lands deforestation of rare tropical rain forest destruction of species destruction of Indigenous people s traditional livelihood consequences for global warming fails to solve land tenure problem Solutions?

Tropical Deforestation Deforestation rates

Tropical Deforestation Causes agricultural clearing pasture clearing timber harvesting oil exploration/extraction population growth? degradation of lands in source areas of migrants poor land tenure equity in source areas of migrants

Population and Environmental Change in Latin America 519 million people in 2000 (UN, 2001) 30 year doubling time, 1970-2000. 1 billion by 2100? Declining fertility, Rural out-migration (2% annually) and Urbanization, but Rapid forest clearing Major impact of rural-rural migrants and pasture expansion T. M. Whitmore

Significance Environmental Impacts The Amazon basin alone contains: 1) the greatest extent of closed tropical forests in the world 2) 45% of all the fresh water on the Earth 3) the planet s largest carbon sink 4) the planet s most bio-diverse forests Human development Impacts rural underdevelopment food production T. M. Whitmore

Central America: Forest Cover Source: FAO, 2003 T. M. Whitmore

South America: Forest Cover Source: FAO, 2003 T. M. Whitmore

Results Central America 1961-2001 59% rural population increase (19 million) 34%. rural population density increase. 15% deforestation (13 million ha.) Great temporal and geographic variation T. M. Whitmore

T. M. Whitmore -68% -47% -40% 87% 51% 1.20 Panama -79% -51% -51% 137% 29% 0.81 Nicaragua -32% 2% -6% 39% 21% 0.78 Mexico -56% 5% -11% 101% 109% 1.02 Honduras -70% -46% -51% 62% 71% 2.81 Haiti -80% -62% -49% 156% 106% 1.79 Guatemala -66% -17% -49% 51% 8% 2.51 El Salvador 59% 109% 100% 26% -22% 2.32 Dominican Republic -72% -24% -45% 98% 81% 1.76 Costa Rica 1961-2000 1981-2000 1961-2001 1961-2000 1961-2001 1961 Change Forest/Capita Deforesta tion Rural Population Change Rural Population Density CENTRAL AMERICA

Central America: Pasture and Arable & Permanently Cropped Land as a Percent of Total Land 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 34.9% 36.7% 38.9% 10% 0% 12.9% 13.1% 15.2% 1961 1981 2001 T. M. Whitmore

Percent A&P Land Irrigated Fertilizer Use (1000 Kg/Ha. of Cropland) 1961 1981 2001 1961 1981 2001 Central America Costa Rica 5.42 12.97 20.57 19 72 128 Dominican Republic 11.11 11.93 17.23 14 58 98 El Salvador 2.78 4.97 4.95 21 88 73 Guatemala 2.08 3.98 6.82 15 89 183 Haiti 3.02 7.82 6.82 0 6 14 Honduras 3.38 4.65 5.60 6 28 152 Mexico 12.63 22.17 23.15 191 1561 1870 Nicaragua 1.53 6.37 4.38 4 60 23 Panama 2.48 4.83 5.04 5 30 29 Average 10.39 17.75 19.04 30 222 T. M. 285 Whitmore

South America 1961-2001 62 million decrease in rural population (-6%) rural population density nearly halved 6% deforestation (12% weighted). T. M. Whitmore

T. M. Whitmore 19% 38% 26% 6% -57% 2.15 Venezuela -46% -14% 8% 101% -48% 1.50 Paraguay -64% -35% -43% 59% 34% 1.18 Ecuador -30% -3% -16% 20% 40% 1.76 Colombia -7% -15% -18% -12% 46% 0.64 Chile 23% 20% -3% -21% -66% 1.41 Brazil -40% -13% -12% 47% -32% 1.49 Bolivia -18% -39% -34% -19% -34% 0.19 Argentina 1961-2000 1981-2000 1961-2001 1961-2000 1961-2001 1961 Change Forest/Capita Deforestation Rural Population Change Rural Population Density SOUTH AMERICA

South America: Pasture and Arable & Permanently Cropped Land as a Percent of Total Land 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 26.3% 30.3% 23.9% 4.6% 8.4% 7.7% 1961 1981 2001 T. M. Whitmore

Percent A&P Land Irrigated Fertilizer Use (1000 Kg/Ha. of Cropland) 1961 1981 2001 1961 1981 2001 South America Argentina 3.45 4.55 4.46 16 96 860 Bolivia 4.99 4.44 4.26 0.8 7 12 Brazil 1.73 2.59 4.38 270 2,753 6,773 Chile 28.02 22.74 82.61 46 114 481 Colombia 4.55 7.43 21.18 71 280 640 Ecuador 17.53 20.65 28.98 11 70 231 Paraguay 3.70 3.09 2.15 0.6 9 67 Venezuela 14.46 8.39 16.87 19 146 300 Average 4.89 4.74 7.39 54 434 1,170 T. M. Whitmore

Revisiting hypotheses Population and Forest Clearing Positive relation between rural population and population density dynamics AND deforestation rates and deforestation rates per capita (rural). YES AND NO What are the land use drivers? Positive relation between rural population and population density dynamics AND cropland relative to pasture. YES and NO Negative relation between rural population and population density AND relative agricultural intensification. YES T. M. Whitmore

Conclusion Future food production: intensification and pasture expansion Migration Scale Data limitations Policy implications T. M. Whitmore

In-migration of Colonists

Area of high density of rubber trees Jarí Fordlândia

USGS

Roger J. Harris, 2001

NASA