INTERNATIONAL AGENCY Transport, Energy and CO2: Aviation and Maritime François Cuenot, IEA Expert Group Meeting on Transport for Sustainable Development, 28 August 2009
Index Recent trends, future projections GHG effects and impacts on climate change Alternative Fuels Efficiency Improvements Modal Shifting Immediate effect of the crisis Policies and GHG reduction strategies
Recent Trends - Air 250 230 Commercial airline traffic, fuel efficiency and CO 2 Index to equal 100 in 1990 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 Tonne kilometers flown 2.1x CO 2 emitted 1.4x Fuel use/tonne km 0.7x 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F Source: IATA, ICAO
Future projections Non-OECD will grow much faster than OECD countries 2050-2005 multiplier: Baseline High Baseline BLUE Shifts OECD 2.6 2.9 1.8 Non-OECD 6.3 8.4 5.3
Plane GHG emissions impact on climate change Still many issues to be solved, but impact is important
GHG emissions Alternative fuels biggest source of reduction in BLUE scenarios 2005 GHG emissions increased in all scenarios
Alternative Fuels liquid fuels compulsory Synthetic fuels (xtl) might be the only viable substitution to petroleum fuels
Efficiency snapshot Aviation the most GHG-intensive mode, on average Efficiency gap between OECD an Non-OECD mainly due to secondhand market
Efficiency improvement Non-technology factors have limited impact
Shifting away from planes limited to short distance inland travel Virtual mobility (Video-conferencing mainly) could also participate in air travel reduction
Recent Impact of the financial crisis also true for ships old planes are getting out the fleet more rapidly 1500 1000 New deliveries Aircraft leaving the fleet 'Normal' fleet replacement New aircraft deliveries and fleet replacement Number of aircraft 500 0-500 -1000 Source: Ascend Fleet replacement - average 2.1% fleet replaced each year - fleet turnover on average every 33 years 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Jan-May (annualised) But this is only short term, orders are also decreasing, increasing life time fo the average plane
Recent Trends - Maritime Source: Clarksons, Global Insight, Drewry and IEA.
Future projections Energy use will remain as today s level or more than double
Shipping Energy Use Space and weight constraint not as critical as for aviation; alternative fuels options available: gaseous fuels are potentially an interesting alternative, already used in LNG tankers but energy from fossil energy can be substituted by other sources
GHG emissions impacts on climate change negative impact for shipping sector SOx have other negative impact on the environment MARPOL Annex VI wish to reduce air pollution from shipping (swithcing away from HFO) might change the present situation in the near future
Container vessel (2000-8000+ TEU) Container vessel (coastal <2000 TEU) Efficiency of ships Ships are the most energy-efficient mode of transportation RoRo 50 60 13 20 32 36 Bulk Carrier (10k-200k Dwt) Products Tanker (5k-60k Dwt) Crude oil carrier (10k-200k Dwt) Rail Electric Rail Diesel Road (>35t) Air Long Haul (>1600km) 2.5 8 5.7 24 2.9 9 19 40 17 69 51 91 570 633 1 10 100 1000 Source ITF estimates and Buhaug, et al., (2008) Shifting from trucks to ships for certain type of goods should be further increased, mainly for inland waterways.
Shipping efficiency improvements 48 measures individual potential improvement evaluated Overall, 40% reduction of the energy intensity could be reached by 2030, 60% by 2050
Aviation and Shipping GHG reduction strategies Efficiency technologies (at best) counter balances the traffic growth Alternative fuels key but biofuels only clear option to reduce GHG International cooperation is key for any policy implementation Crossing borders inherent to Air and Maritime sectors National policies are possible (e.g. NL tax on flight departures, ) but have little effects isolated The EU is pushing hard for cap and trade schemes for both Aviation and Maritime sectors. Monitoring of Aviation CO 2 emissions to start in 2010 Every plane coming in or leaving Europe would be concerned
Aviation and Shipping GHG reduction strategies IMO asked to provide GHG emission reduction strategies to COP15 ICAO/IATA also plans to release strategies at Post- Kyoto conference in Copenhagen. Aviation Global Deal (AGD) Group set up to propose more ambitious targets International organizations should push for international agreements on air and maritime sectors. More work is needed at the IEA and elsewhere to better monitor GHG emissions and GHG reduction costs