INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON ECONOMICS AND MARKETING OF TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL FRUITS 16-18 18 July 2007 PWTC Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
The Global Supply and Demand Prospects of Tropical Fruits A presentation by : Kaison Chang, Secretary, FAO Sub-Group on Tropical Fruits
The Global Supply and Demand Prospects of Tropical Fruits Current Situation Data Source - Annual questionnaire, supplemented by FAOSTAT and COMTRADE Medium Term Dynamic time series models used
Tropical fruits are widely perceived by developing countries as representing viable options for diversification Future international trade prospects are subject to uncertainties, some of which derive from the very success of export efforts of the pioneers in the field In particular, diversification into tropical fruit has in some cases been encouraged without sufficient knowledge of potential market outlets, with resultant adverse price effects for all.
Tropical Fruits - Production (Thousand tonnes) 72000 70000 68000 66000 64000 62000 60000 58000 1999-01 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total
Tropical Fruits Production 2005 (Thousand tonnes) 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Mango Minor Pineapple Papaya Avocado
Share of Fruit Production by Region - 2005 Asia LAC Africa Oceania
Minor Fruit Production - 2005 (Thousand Tonnes) 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Durian Rambuttan Guava Total
Durian Production 2005 (Thousand tonnes) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Thailand Indonesia Malaysia
Rambutan Production 2005 (Thousand tonnes) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Thailand Indonesia Malaysia
Guava Production - 2005 (Thousand tonnes) 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 India Pakistan
Trade Value 2005 (US $ million) 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Tropical Fruits Bananas apples oranges pears
Major Fresh Tropical Fruits Exports Value Million US $ 1100 550 0 Pineapples Mangoes Papaya Avocados 2003 2004 2005
Fresh Tropical Fruits Exports (Thousand tonnes) 2005 2004 2003 2002 1999-01 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Total Mangoes Pineapples Avocados Papaya
Fresh Tropical Fruits Imports (Thousand tonnes) 2005 2004 2003 2002 1999-01 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Total Mangoes Pineapples Avocados Papaya
MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK Dynamic time series models used for projections Assumptions included : normal weather conditions would prevail past trends in planted areas, yields, GDP growth and population would continue. Adjustments made to the forecast results to reflect current trends, policies and future market prospects Projections do not account for processed fruit, due to lack of trade information and conversion factors between fresh and processed forms
Projected Production to 2014 (Thousand tonnes) 84000 82000 80000 78000 76000 74000 72000 70000 68000 66000 64000 2005 2014
Projected Production by Variety - 2014 (Thousand tonnes) Mango Pineapple Papaya Avocado
Projected Share of Mango Production by Region 2014 Asia LAC Africa Other
Projected Share of Pineapple Production by Region 2014 Asia LAC Africa Other
Projected Share of Papaya Production by Region 2014 Asia LAC Africa Other
Projected Share of Avocado Production by Region 2014 Asia LAC Africa Other
Projected Import Demand by 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 2014 (Thousand tonnes) 0 Developed Developing Total
Projected Import Demand by Variety (Thousand tonnes) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Pineapple Mango Papaya Avocado Total
CONCLUSIONS 1. Data Constraints Constraint to supply and demand analyses Lack of international standards difficult to compare prices Re minor fruits - unless the value of trade of an individual fruit exceeded US $50 million, statistics will continue to be aggregated World Customs Organization.
2. CONCLUSIONS - Contd 2. Increasing share of fresh fruit Advances in post harvest technology Highly efficient logistics Price premiums based on quality have replaced novelty based premiums Hikes in oil prices have eroded profit margins Traders reluctant to pass on increased costs to retailers because of intense competition in a highly elastic market
CONCLUSIONS - Contd 3. Medium Term projections suggest that demand will continue to grow strongly Supply per se is not a major constraint to international trade, as only 5 percent of production is actually exported Importance of quality in an increasingly crowded international fruit market has led to major initiatives Major challenges in managing the field-to to- market-supply chain, for both fresh and processed products Should find a proper balance between cost and demand when meeting standards
CONCLUSIONS - Contd 4. Policy Issues Phytosanitary measures are of concern Although market access and sanitary issues are of importance, compliance is not as problematic Challenges in WTO on scientific and equivalency grounds are common Cost of treating fruit for exports could be a limiting factor Must be clearly linked to supply outputs