National Agricultural Statistics Service Overview

National Agricultural Statistics Service Overview Hubert Hamer, Administrator USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service Lincoln, Nebraska September 24, 2016

Mission of NASS The National Agricultural Statistics Service provides timely, accurate, and useful statistics in service to U.S. agriculture. 10/13/2016 2

FARM DEFINITION Any place from which $1,000 of agricultural products were produced and sold, or normally, would have been sold. This definition is unchanged since 1974.

Who We Are An official U.S. federal statistical agency Employs nearly 1,000 staff across the country Statisticians, IT Professionals, Public Affairs Specialists, and Geographers, comprise most of the professional staff Oversees 3,000 enumerators collecting data 10/13/2016 4

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What Does NASS Do? Administer USDA s Statistical estimating Program and the 5-year Census of Agriculture Coordinate Federal/State agricultural statistics needs Conduct statistical research for other Federal/State or private organizations and other countries Statistical Research

What Does NASS Do? Supply Statistics We supply the statistics necessary to manage USDA programs Our statistics help to improve efficiency of these programs Facilitate in the development of new programs

What Doesn t NASS Do? Set policy Regulate activities Permit influence Disclose individual reports Favor any group above others

Agricultural Estimates Program Provides Official Statistics for Production, Inventory, Value, Demographics 120 Crop estimates produced annually 45 Livestock commodities produced annually Over 400 Reports published annually 10/13/2016 10

NASS Crop County Estimate Program

Crops Included in County Program Barley Oats Wheat Corn (Silage & Grain) Soybeans Sorghum Peanuts Cotton Hay Tobacco Sugarbeets Sugarcane Sunflowers Flaxseed Canola Rice Potatoes Sweet Potatoes Dry Peas & Lentils Dry Beans Processed Tomatoes

Data Sources Farmer Reported Survey Data FSA Certified Acres RMA Planted Acres FSA & RMA Failed Acres Remote Sensing Indications Other Administrative

Farmer Reported Surveys Small Grains September APS ~66,000 Sample Size First 2 Weeks of Sept ~65-70% Response Small Grain CAPS ~80,000 Sample Size Aug 1 Oct 10 ~65-70% Response Row Crops December APS ~83,000 Sample Size First 2 Weeks of Dec ~60-65% Response Row Crop CAPS ~170,000 Sample Size Oct 15 Jan 15 ~60-65% Response

Sequence of Estimates National State Ag Statistics District County

Reported Data & Coverage

Sequence of Estimates Planted Acres Harvested Acres Yield/Production

Publication Standards Minimum of 30 positive yield reports OR Reported harvested acreage from reports with positive production must account for at least 25% of the harvested acreage estimate

85 Acreage and Production Survey (APS) Response Rates 2005-2015 80 75 70 65 60 55 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 September December

Farmer Reported Surveys Data are collected via Mail (~$4.00) Telephone (~$12.00) Internet (~$2.00) Personal Interview (~>$50.00) Voluntary Reporting

Challenges Response/Disclosure Limited by available information Dependent upon voluntary survey response Weather There is never an average year Each season is unique Crop Rotation/Shifting Normal practices Price reactions

Targeted Data Collection Near the end of data collection timeframe we focus efforts on counties nearing publication standards. Standard Group 1 Group 2 Group 3

How Can We Improve? Accuracy Number of Counties Published Increase Response!

External Challenge Process Data user disagrees with published estimate User provides written appeal RFO and/or HQ reviews county in question Changes made and published if needed Challenger notified of review result

CENSUS HISTORY The first Census of Agriculture was conducted in 1840 in 26 states and the District of Columbia.

176 YEARS LATER NASS has conducted the Census of Agriculture since 1997 with the transfer of authority from the Census Bureau. Census of Agriculture encompasses 50 states and Puerto Rico (and Outlying Areas) Data are available for: National, State and County levels Congressional Districts Watersheds Organic, Irrigation, Horticulture, Specialty Crops and Aquaculture

Census of Agriculture Provides a detailed picture of U.S. farms and ranches and the people who operate them. Only source of uniform, comprehensive agricultural data for every state and county in the United States. Census Special Studies include: Horticulture, Organics, Irrigation, Land Tenure, Aquaculture, Local Foods 10/13/2016 35

5-Year Census of Agriculture Cycle Year 5 - Release Year 4 - Production Year 1 - Direction Year 3 - Reference Year 2 - Planning

Year 1 (2015) Year 1 - Direction Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 (2016) (2017) (2018) Year 5 (2019) Monitor products from previous Census of Agriculture (CoA) Continue follow-ons from previous Census List building - National Agricultural Classification Survey (240,000 forms mailed) Begin working on processing and analysis systems Determine Content Year 4 - Production Year 3 Reference Year 5 - Release Year 2 - Planning Year 1 - Direction

Year 2 - Planning Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 (2015) (2016) (2017) (2018) (2019) Census of Agriculture Content Test Test new content and systems Focus on improving online respondent experience List building - National Agricultural Classification Survey (340,000 forms mailed) Begin working on publication specifications Year 4 - Production Year 5 - Release Year 1 - Direction Year 3 Reference Year 2 - Planning

Year 3 - Reference Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 (2015) (2016) (2017) (2018) (2019) List building - National Agricultural Classification Survey (1 million forms mailed) Supplemental samples from June Agricultural Survey Used to improve census coverage & determine misclassification Print all correspondence materials Year 4 - Production Year 3 Reference Year 5 - Release Year 2 - Planning Year 1 - Direction

Year 4 - Production Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 (2015) (2016) (2017) (2018) (2019) Data Collection and Processing Editing and Imputation Data Analysis Summarization, Weighting, and Disclosure Products and Release Planning Prepare for CoA Follow-ons Year 4 - Production Year 3 Reference Year 5 - Release Year 2 - Planning Year 1 - Direction

Year 1 (2015) Year 2 Year 5 - Release Year 3 Year 4 (2016) (2017) (2018) Year 5 (2019) Release CoA results Conduct first of the CoA Follow-ons Evaluate the 2017 CoA and solicit input for the 2022 CoA from the public Year 4 - Production Year 5 - Release Year 1 - Direction Year 3 Reference Year 2 - Planning

Partnership With NASDA First Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with a State signed with Wisconsin Department of Agriculture in 1917 Following the initial MOU, numerous cooperative relationships and agreements between NASS and State Departments of Agriculture, Land Grant Universities, and other entities were forged. Today NASS has a MOU on file with each of the State Department of Agriculture.* Share a common mission to benefit agriculture

Partnership With NASDA Benefits include: Eliminate Confusion - One Number Reduces Respondent Burden Avoid Duplication of Resources (Staff, Equipment, Sample Frames) Combined Resources Produce More Than Each Individually Examples of Efficiencies Add Questions of State Interest to Federal Survey Increase Sample Size for Sub-State Data Use Federal Sample Design for Special Surveys Help!

Agency Appropriated Budget Line Item FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 Ag Estimates Request 123.922 131.227 123.782 116.977 117.306 130.955 134.599 134.462 Census Request Total Request Ag Estimates Actual Census Actual Total Actual 37.908 33.494 41.639 62.500 42.295 48.044 45.747 42.177 161.830 164.721 165.421 179.477 159.601 178.999 180.346 176.639 123.922 123.375 116.977 108.608 116.661 124.566 126.266 H126,572 S127,462 37.908 33.073 41.639 58.029 44.545 47.842 42.177 H41,871 S42,177 161.830 156.447 158.616 166.637 161.206 172.408 168.433 H168,433 S169,639

Thank You Questions? All Reports Available at: www.nass.usda.gov Hubert Hamer Hubert.Hamer@nass.usda.gov