Long Run Energy Demand in in Iran: Efficiency and Renewable Energy Scenarios Saeed Moshiri STM College, University of Saskatchewan, Canada Farideh Atabi Department of Environment, Science and Research Branch, Azad University, Iran Mohammad Hassan Panjehshahi Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran Stefan Lechtenböehmer Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy, Germany 29 th USAEE/IAEE N.A. Conference Calgary, Canada October 21
Introduction Objectives Modeling energy demand in different sectors Identifying potentials for energy efficiency and renewables Projecting demand scenarios Methodology End use approach Historical trends Past and current policies Period of Study 25 23 Scenarios Business As Usual (BAU) High Efficiency High Renewables Combined & Constrained 2
Economy Amount GDP (PPP) $599.2 b. World rank: 22 GDP per capita $87 World rank: 98 GDP growth 5.5 % 21 29 Population 7 m. 68% urban, 6% under 3 Population growth 1.3% 2% in the 198s Unemployment rate 12% Inflation rate 15% Current account balance $12b. Note 3
Energy production and use in Iran Amount Primary Energy Production 212.9 MBOE Primary Energy Exports 1185.1 MBOE Primary Energy Imports 121.6 MBOE Primary Energy Use* 97.22 MBOE Oil Proven Reserve 132.5 bbl (11%) World rank: 3 Oil Production 3.979 mbl/day World rank: 4 OPEC rank: 2, R/Q = 91 Oil use 1.51 mbl/day Oil Exports 2.5 mbl/day World rank: 4,OPEC rank:2 Natural Gas Reserves 26.62 tcm (15.3%) World rank: 2 Natural Gas Production 83.9 bcm/year World rank: 7, R/Q = 317 Natural Gas Use Natural Gas Exports Natural Gas Imports Electricity Nominal Capacity Electricity Production 85.54 bcm/year 3.56 bcm/year 5.2 bcm/year 37.3 GW 155 bkwh/year Energy Use per capita (energy use/population) 11.5 BOE/cap 5% average growth rate Energy Intensity (boe/million rials) 1.95 3.4% average growth rate Energy Factor (Final use growth/gdp growth) 1.52 MBOE: million barrel oil equivalent, bbl: billion barrel, tcm: trillion cubic meter, bcm: billion cubic meter, bkwh: billion kilo watt hour, GW: Giga Watt Note 4
Energy Supply and Use 2 16 MBO E 12 8 4 1974-75 1976-77 1978-79 198-81 1982-83 1984-85 1986-87 1988-89 199-91 1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2-1 22-3 24-5 Mboe Final Consumption Primary Energy Supply Per capita energy use has outpaced the world energy use since 1997. 5
Energy Intensity 4 3 2 1.3.25.2.15.1.5. Energy Intensity (tboe/$1, PPP) Energy Intensity (tboe / US $ 1, PPP) OECD US Asia Africa Middle East Iran World 6 Barrels Per Million Rials 1974-75 1976-77 1978-79 198-81 1982-83 1984-85 1986-87 1988-89 199-91 1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2-1 22-3 24-5
Energy Policies Subsidies Electrification Natural Gas Development Price reform 7
Energy Demand Scenarios Demand for energy type j in sector h with M capitals (K) at time t h= 1,, H, j=1, 2,,J e: energy coefficient φ: utilization rate of capital H = 5 (household, industry, transport, others, power plants) J = 6 (fuel oil, gas oil, kerosene, gasoline, natural gas, and electricity) Data sources: household budget survey, manufacturing survey, transport survey, technical studies, energy audits reports, expert surveys, historical data 8
Business As Usual (BAU) BAU: Demand for energy if no far reaching changes in consumption patterns are made. Assumptions: The economy and the energy sector follow the historical trends Five year development plan will be implemented The economy will move in the 2 year Vision s direction GDP and population growth: 25-21 211-22 221-23 GDP Growth (%) 5.5 3.4 3 Population Growth (%) 1.3 1.4.9 9
BAU: Residential Fuel Regression results Natural gasification policy (rising share to 95%) Solar energy share will grow to 5% by 23 Share (%) 25 mboe 23 mboe Growth (%/year) Kerosene 47 13-4.97 Space heating Cooking 1 47 13 Water heating Gasoil 8 13 2.11 Space heating 8 6 1 Cooking Water heating 2 2 3 LPG 8 7 -.68 Space heating Cooking 5 4 3 Water heating 5 4 3 Natural Gas 197 559 4.25 Space heating 75 148 42 Cooking 1 2 56 Water heating 15 3 84 Total (Oil & Natural Gas) 259.5 591.9 3.35 Solar * 3 11.65 Heating 1-5 21 Cooking 1-5 4 Warm water 1-5 4 * The solar share will increase from 1 percent in 21 to 5 percent in 25. MBOE 6 5 4 3 2 1 25 21 215 22 225 23 Gasoil LPG Natural Gas Solar Kerosene 1
BAU: Residential Electricity Demand for Electricity: E t = M j = 1 ( φ jt e jt ) For a household with M appliances φ penetration rate, e electricity use by each appliance t TE t = ( Nbase (1 + r) )/ n) ( C / H) ( Et ) All households N population in the initial year r population growth rate n size of household C number of customers H number of households 11
BAU: Residential Electricity Appliance Average electricity consumption by appliances Average electricity Average electricity consumption of households consumption of households (kw/year), 25 (kw/year), 23 Lamp<1 W 391 334 Lamp 1 W 485 561 Fluorescent Lamp 315 128 Low consumption Lamp 1 53 Refrigerator 59 525 Freezer 186 296 Mixer 9 7 Soft cooker 31 46 Microwave 16 64 Tea-coffee Maker 1 25 Vacuum Cleaner 6 8 Washing Machine 69 19 Iron 157 244 Cooler (water) 111 8 Cooler (gas) 17 369 TV 233 412 Computer 13 92 Total 2,837 3,424 Source: A study of household s electricity consumption pattern and their satisfaction in Tehran, various years, TAVANIR. 12
BAU: Residential Electricity Residential Demand for Electricity, BAU Scenario (25 23) 25 23 Growth (%) Urban Number of Customers (million) 12.14 16.3 1.19 Consumption per household per year (MkWh) 3,319 3,742.48 Total Consumption (MkWh) 39,79 65,89 2.4 Rural Number of Customers (million) 4.4 5.96 1.22 Consumption per household per year (MkWh) 1,538 2,565 2.7 Total Consumption (MkWh) 6,836 12,119 2.32 Total Number of Customers (million) 16.6 22.3 1.19 Total Consumption (MkWh) 46,626 78,8 2.8 13
BAU: Residential Electricity 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, Urban Rural Total 2, 1, 25 21 215 22 225 23 14
BAU: Manufacturing Industries Energy demand e: energy intensity, VA: value added Manufacturing Industries Value Added and Energy Use (25) Manufacturing Industries Value Added Constant 1997 b. Rials Share % Energy Use MBOE Share % Food 7,83 9 17 1 Textile 4,426 6 5 3 Wood 279.4 1.5 Paper 1,44 2 4 3 Chemical 1,598 13 44 27 Refinery 7,184 9 19 11 Non metal mining 6,61 8 26 16 Basic metals 1,8 13 29 18 Machinery and Equipment 28,854 36 7 4 Other industrial 3,119 4 13 8 Total 79,579 1 164 1 Source: The Large Manufacturing Industries Survey, Statistical Center of Iran, and authors calculations. 15
BAU: Manufacturing Industries Decreasing energy intensity (7% annually for the past 15 years) Slower decrease in recent years Trend will continue but at a slower rate Energy Intensity in Manufacturing Industries- 25-23 BOE/b. Rails (constant 1997) 25 23 Food 2.33 1.82 Textile 1.2.8 Wood 2.87 1.73 Paper 2.91 2.26 Chemical 4.19 3.26 Refinery 2.62 2.4 Non-metal mining 3.93 3.5 Basic metals 2.89 2.24 Machinery and Equip..23.18 Other industrial 4.25 3.31 Total 2.6 1.58 16
BAU: Manufacturing Industries Manufacturing Industries Demand for Energy (21-23), MBOE 25 23 Growth (%) Food 17 44 4 Textile 5 8 2 Wood 1 1 1 Paper 4 1 4 Chemical 44 16 4 Refinery 19 45 4 Non-metal mining 26 59 3 Basic metals 29 72 4 Machinery and Equip. 7 16 4 Other industrial 13 19 1 Total 164 38 3.4 17
BAU: Manufacturing Industries 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 Food Textile Wood Paper Chemical Refinery Non-metal mining Basic metals Machinery and Equip. Other industrial Total Energy Demand in Manufacturing Sector 18
BAU: Transportation Demand for energy C total number of vehicles T: Travel distance per vehicle per year E: specific energy consumption Private Public 25 23 Number of cars (million) 6 18.26 Average total travel distance by a passenger car per year (km/year) 24, 22, Total travel distance by passenger cars per year (million km/year) 144, 41,632 Average load per car (person) 1.7 1.5 Total travel distance by passengers (million person km/year) 244,8 62,449 Average gasoline consumption per car (liter/1 km) 14 7.5 Total gasoline consumption by passenger cars (m. liter) 2,16 3,122 Number of buses 233, 358, Average travel distance by bus per year (km/year) 45, 41,25 Total travel distance by bus (mkm/year) 1,496 17,219 Total travel distance by passengers bus (million person km/year) 182,682 382,497 Average gas oil consumption by bus (liter/1 km) 51 25 Total gas oil consumption by bus (million liter) 5,353 4,35 Total travel distance by train (million person km) 11,149 29,78 Total gasoil consumption by train (million liter) 95 253 Total travel distance by air (million person km) 1,985 29,284 Total fuel consumption by airplane (million liter) 1,63 3,166 19
BAU: Transportation Mobility in Iran in Mio. Pkm 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, Mio. Pkm 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 25 21 215 22 225 23 cars train bus aviation 2
BAU: Transportation Demand for energy 14 12 1 MBOE 8 6 4 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Gasoine Gas Oil Kerosine CNG 21
BAU: Power Generating Plants Total energy demand TGC: total generation capacity s: share of each power plant type E: specific energy consumption l: load factor Telec: total electricity demand TDL: transmission and distribution loss OU: own demand 22
BAU: Power Generating Plants Electricity Generation by Renewable and Non Renewable Sources- BAU (25-23)` Electricity generation (GWh) 25 23 Existing thermal power system 4,615 6,394 nuclear power 6 Renewable Sources: Hydropower 4,5 6,75 Wind power 22 2,75 Photovoltaic 7 Geothermal 33 Solar thermal power 1.6 Small hydropower 28 Biomass 18 other Source: Tavanir and authors estimation 23
BAU: Power Generating Plants Energy demand by power generating plants 25 23 Growth (%) Total Fuel 458,5 717,18 4 1.81 Gas Oil 47,312 44,827.22 Natural Gas (existing plants) 326,43 5 39,28 9.22 Natural Gas (new plants) 282,72 9 Solar Heat Power Plants 37.28 Heavy Fuel 84,753 8,32.22 Average Efficiency Factor (%) 39.7 46.1 24
BAU: Others (Agriculture) Change in Energy Change in Energy Energy Carrier Energy Intensity (24) (BOE/Const. 1997 m.rials) Intensity 1996 24(%) Energy Intensity 25 23 Intensity (23) (%) Gas oil.41 4 2.2.23 Kerosene.8 19 6.7.1 Gasoline.1 2 1.6.1 Fuel Oil.5 22 7.3.1 Electricity.18 2 1.23 Total.59 3.4 1.47 25
BAU: Others (Agriculture) Agriculture Demand for Energy (25 23) MBOE Energy Carrier 25 23 Growth (%) Gas Oil 24 25.9.31 Kerosene.5.17 4.6 Gasoline.9.12.91 Fuel Oil.3.1 4.87 Electricity 1 26.6 3.66 Total 35 52.8 1.6 26
BAU: Others (Agriculture) 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. 25 21 215 22 225 23 Gas Oil Kerosene Gasoline Fuel Oil Electricity 27
BAU: Others (Commercial) Energy use and energy intensity in the commercial sector 24 Energy Use (BOE) Energy Intensity (BOE/constant 1997 million Rials) Electricity a 4955813.796.445 Gasoline 558.17396.4 Kerosene 438,273.33 Gas Oil 4,185,21.296 Fuel Oil 9,718,672.79 Natural Gas 1,12,39.9 1. Electricity and natural gas intensities are calculated for 25. 28
BAU: Others (Commercial) 7 6 5 4 MBOE 3 2 1 25 21 215 22 225 23 Gasoline Kerosene Gas Oil Feul Oil Electricity Natural Gas 29
BAU: Others (Public) Energy Demand in Public Sector (24) Energy Consumption (BOE) Energy Intensity (BOE/Constant 1997 million Rials) Gasoline 626,813.13 Kerosene 944,19.29 Gas Oil 6,368,751.93 Fuel Oil 73,132.33 Electricity 1,336,43.213 Natural Gas 16,.3 3
BAU: Others (Public) 25 2 15 MBOE 1 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 Gasoline Kerosene Gas Oil Fuel Oil Electricity Natural Gas 31
B AU: Total Demand Total Primary Energy Demand in Iran by Sectors (25 23), MBOE 25 Share (%) 23 Share (%) Growth (%) Household 259 37.2 592 44.2 3.4 Manufacturing Industries 135.6 19.4 326 24.3 3.6 Commercial 49.5 7.1 68 5.1 1.3 Public 11 1.6 14 1. 1 Agriculture 24.5 3.5 26.2 2..3 Transport 218 31.2 313 23.4 1.5 Total 698 1 1,339 1 2.6 32
BAU: Total Demand 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, MBOE 8 6 4 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Household_Oil & Gas Manufacturing Industries Commercial Public Agriculture Transport 33
BAU: Total Demand Total Energy Demand in Iran by Type of Energy Carriers (25 23), MBOE 25 Share (%) 23 Share (%) Growth (%) Kerosene 5 7 15 1 4.6 Gas oil 147 21 245 19 1.8 LPG 11 2 13 1.9 Fuel Oil 54 8 193 7 1.2 Natural Gas 39 44 822 59 3.5 Gasoline 11 15 123 1.5 CNG 6 1 7 1 Total Energy Demand 698 1 1339 1 2.6 34
BAU: Total Demand 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 MBOE 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Kerosene Gas oil LPG Fuel Oil Natural Gas Gasoline 35
High Efficiency Scenario Assumptions Household: building efficiency measures (renovations, replacement, more efficient appliances relative to European standards Industry: The auditing recommendations will be applied: Use of efficient motor system, improved monitoring and process control, process optimization and integration (pinch analysis), and recycling New plants will be more efficient Transport: More efficient vehicles and public transportation will be used 36
High Efficiency Scenario 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 mboe 1, 8 6 4 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 BAU EFF 37
High Renewables Scenario Assumptions Electricity production by 23: Wind power : 22 TWh/a Geothermal: 45 Twh/a Biomass:.18 Twh/a Solar: 94 TWh/a CSP:.7 TWh/a Hydropower: 17.3 TWh/a 38
High Renewables Scenario 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 mboe 1, 8 6 4 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 BAU Renewalbe 39
Combined Scenario 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 mboe 1, 8 6 4 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 BAU Combined 4
All Scenarios Scenario Total Demand (MBOE) 25 23 Savings in 23 (% of BAU) Growth (%) BAU 97 1,822 2.6 High Efficiency 97 1,84 4.4 High Renewables 97 1,76 3 2.4 Combined 97 1,3 43.2 Constrained 97 1,7 41.4 41
All Scenarios Household: Heat Household: Electricity MBOE 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 KWH/HH/YEAR 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 BAU EFF COMB CONS RENEW Manufacturing 25 21 215 22 225 23 Transport BAU EFF COM CONS RENEW MBOE 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 BAU EFF COMB CONS RENEW BOE 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 BAU EFF COM CONS RENEW 42
All Scenarios MBOE M B O E Agriculture 6 5 4 3 2 1 Public 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 BAU EFF COM CONS RENEW 25 21 215 22 225 23 BAU EFF COM CONS RENEW MBOE Commercial 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Total 25 21 215 22 225 23 BAU EFF COM CONS RENEW 25 21 215 22 225 23 BAU EFF Renewable Combined Constrained 43
16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 44 1991 23 World Germany BAU Renew. Efficiency Combined BAU Target 23 Scenarios f or 23 22 Iran Comp. Iran Germany Energy Intensity MJ/$ ppp
All Scenarios: Savings US$ billion 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 25 21 22 23 Efficiency Renewables Combined Constrained Additional Revenue Due to Energy Savings 45
All Scenarios: Emissions 8 7 6 m. tonnes 5 4 3 2 1 25 21 22 23 BAU Efficiency Renewable Combined Emissions in Different Scenarios 46