Energy Investment Needs for Fulfilling the Paris Agreement and Achieving Sustainable Development Goals Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) The World Bank, 27 November 2017, Washington DC, USA
New Paper on Future Investment Needs McCollum et al, submitted to Nature Energy Support by the World Bank and CD-LINKS. Multimodel Assessment 6 teams 1.5 and 2C scenarios NDCs vs SDGs
Paris Agreement + SDGs
GHG emissions (GtCO2e) Staying below 2C requires a deep and rapid transformation 100 80 early peak ~2020 NDCs 60 40 20 0 rapid decarbonisation electrification, efficiency(!) zero-c power sector net zero GHG emissions ~ 2070 2 C negative emissions in some scenarios -20 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
GHG emissions (GtCO2e) 100 1.5C requires further acceleration and an even deeper transformation 80 NDCs 60 40 20 VERY rapid decarbonisation, demand! + supply Net zero GHG emissions ~ 2050 0 2 C 1.5 C -20 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 Earlier and more negative emissions compared to 2 C
GHG Emissions [GtCO2e] The Emissions GAP by 2050 60 2010 emissions 40 20 0 41 GtCO 2 e 51 GtCO 2 e NDC 2.0 C 1.5 C
disinvestment investment Global Investment Portfolios for 1.5 and 2C Average annual investments 2010 to 2050 Fossil power Fossil Exraction T&D, storage Nuclear & CCS Renewables Efficiency 2 C compared to baseline McCollum et al, (under embargo do not cite or quote)
disinvestment investment Global Investment Portfolios for 1.5 and 2C Average annual investments 2010 to 2050 1.5 C compared to baseline McCollum et al, (under embargo do not cite or quote)
Low-Carbon Investment Shares 1.5C zero-carbon / renewables share ~80%
Regional Investments (2C) 2015-2050, compared to baseline Most of the investments in Asia due to growth & decarbonization OECD second, focus on capacity replacement McCollum et al, (under embargo do not cite or quote)
Regional Investments (1.5 vs 2C) 2015-2050, compared to baseline Most of the investments in Asia due to growth & decarbonization OECD second, focus on capacity replacement McCollum et al, (under embargo do not cite or quote)
Regional Disinvestments (1.5C vs 2C) 2015-2050, compared to baseline Most of the disinvestments in fossil resource countries Middle East/Africa, Asia, OECD McCollum et al, (under embargo do not cite or quote)
Coal is phased out with only small investment into CCS McCollum et al, (under embargo do not cite or quote)
Comparing Energy transformation investments to other investment needs
Thank you riahi@iiasa.ac.at
Climate Policy Impact on SDG: 1.5 C 2050 adverse effect co-benefit Krey et al. (in review) under embargo, do not cite
Krey et al. (in review) under embargo, do not cite Integrated Policy Costs 2050 2 C 1.5 C
Climate Policy Impact on SDG: 1.5 C 2050 X X X adverse effect co-benefit Krey et al. (in review) under embargo, do not cite
Balancing Trade-offs Between Water and Energy Investments Integrated assessment of global energy and water infrastructure pathways Interactions between clean water (SDG6) and climate change mitigation through energy systems Global power sector costs are between 8 and 11 % higher when SDG6 added to 1.5 C SDG6 access and efficiency targets accelerate expansion of electricityintensive water sources SDG6 water efficiency targets limit water-intensive low-carbon energy technologies
Climate and Water Policy Interactions 2030 SDG Agenda Limited CCS / nuclear +4% more electricity demand Air-cooling technologies Water costs increasing under decarbonization SDG6 scenarios are the most vulnerable due to the prevalence of electricityintensive water infrastructure
Integration of global and national perspective Global transformation pathways Framing within global targets Boundary conditions, e.g. interntional feedbacks, techno-economics, resource prices National low-carbon development pathways Improved representation of national circumstances and policy priorities
CD-LINKS Partners
Climate Policy Database www.climatepolicydatabase.org Aim: open, collaborative platform to gather all climate-related policies, with full geographical and sectoral coverage. Platform: Semantic Media Wiki, an opensource, database driven extension of MediaWiki Niklas Höhne: niklas.hoehne@wur.nl n.hoehne@newclimate.org Presentation by Niklas Höhne
NDC 2 C 1.5 C NDC 2 C 1.5 C NDC 2 C 1.5 C NDC 2 C 1.5 C NDC 2 C 1.5 C NDC 2 C 1.5 C NDC 2 C 1.5 C Cumulative emissions 2010-2050, by region China USA India EU Russia Japan Brazil Energy & Industry Emissions, GtCO 2 0 100 200 300 400 500 NDC National Models Global National Presentation by Detlef van Vuuren
EJ EJ Primary Energy Results from National Teams EJ EJ Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil wccs Oil woccs Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 120 100 80 60 40 20 Presentation by Amit Garg 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Presentation by Roberto Schaeffer 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Side event agenda Keywan Riahi, IIASA Introduction and Overview of Decarbonization Pathways Detlef van Vuuren, PBL Burden Sharing and regional carbon budgets Volker Krey, IIASA Sustainable development implications Niklas Höhne, WU Policy Perpective on the NDCs Roberto Schaeffer, COPPE Mid-century decarbonisation pathway for Brazil Amit Garg, IIM Mid-century decarbonisation pathway for India http://www.cd-links.org @C_DLINKS Concluding Panel with Tom van Ierland, EC and Guido Schmidt-Traub, SDSN
Regional Disinvestments McCollum et al, (under embargo do not cite or quote)
Coal phase-out McCollum et al, (under embargo do not cite or quote)
GHG Emissions [GtCO2e] Global GHG 2030 60 2010 emissions 40 11 GtCO 2 e 20 17 GtCO 2 e 0 NDC 2.0 C 1.5 C