IEA Technology Roadmap: Delivering sustainable bioenergy Adam Brown ETIP Bioenergy, 11 April 218 OECD/IEA 217
Roadmap launched IEA Bioenergy Roadmap launched on 3 November 217 at joint IEA and Mission Innovation Event in Ottawa Technology Roadmap - Delivering Sustainable Bioenergy www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/technology-roadmap-on-bioenergy.html. Team effort!
The full portfolio of technologies is needed for decarbonisation GtCO 2 5 4 3 2 1 Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions Global CO2 reductions by technology area Gt CO 2 cumulative reductions in 26 2 4 2DS RTS B2DS 214 22 23 24 25 Efficiency 34% 4% Efficiency Renewables 4% 15% 35% Renewables 35% Fuel switching 18% 5% Fuel switching 5% Nuclear Nuclear 1% 6% 6% CCS 33% 15% Delivering deep carbon emission reductions will require an unprecedented effort in technology innovation and diversification worldwide
Bioenergy an essential component of IEA Low Carbon Scenarios Role of Bioenergy Role of RTS Bioenergy to B2DS Global Emissions GT CO2 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 255 26 2DS - Other technologies 2DS - Other technologies 2DS - Bioenergy B2DS - Other technologies 2DS - Bioenergy B2DS - Bioenergy Bioenergy to provide some 17% of cumulative carbon savings to 26 in the 2DS and around 22% of additional cumulative reductions in the B2DS, including an important contribution from BECCS
Strong acceleration needed between now and 23 Modern bioenergy in final energy consumption in 2DS 8 6 EJ Other Electricity Transport 4 2X Industry 2 3X 215 23 26
Sector growth (indexed 28 = 1) Bioenergy is already a significant global energy source Modern bioenergy in final energy consumption 215 (left) and growth by sector 28-15 (right) Total: 17 EJ 2 1 Modern bioenergy for heat Bioenergy for electricity Biofuels for transport 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Biofuels for transport Modern bioenergy for heat Bioenergy for electricity Modern bioenergy accounted for around half of renewables in final energy consumption in 215, a contribution five times greater than wind and solar PV combined. However, growth rates vary by sector.
Biofuels: an important option in a portfolio of transport solutions Transport Fuels 2DS 12 EJ 1 8 6 4 2 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 255 26 Hydrogen Electricity Biofuels Other fossil Fossil Jet Fuel Fossil Diesel Fossil Gasoline While demand of transport services more than doubles, biofuels complement end-use efficiency and strong growth in electricity, providing almost 3% of transport final energy demand in 26
Advanced biofuels play a key role 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 EJ Biojet Biodiesel - advanced Biodiesel - conventional Biomethane Ethanol - advanced Ethanol - conventional 215 225 235 245 255
Electricity generation in 2DS TWh 6 5 4 3 2 1 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 255 26 Biomass with CCS Biomass Other Renewables Hydro Nuclear Natural gas Coal Oil Bio-electricity grows 7-fold and goes from 2 to 7% of electricity generation
Four key actions 1. Promote short term deployment of mature options 2. Stimulate the development and deployment of new technologies 3. Deliver the necessary feedstock sustainably, backed by a supportive sustainability governance system 4. Develop capacity and catalyse investment via a coordinated international collaboration effort Need for appropriate policy frameworks
Stimulate development and deployment of new technologies Some routes to new biofuels New technologies needed with good carbon performance and adapted to market roles in 2DS. Continued R,D and D to reduce costs and improve GHG performance of existing biofuels technologies Demonstrate reliable performance from existing novel biofuels plants Develop and demonstrate routes to diesel and biojet with improved costs, better C balances and GHG performance (link to RE H 2 production) Identify potential and development paths for cost reduction
Advanced biofuels cost reduction potential USD/GJ EJ 6 7 5 6 4 5 3 Novel biofuels costs 4 3 2 carbon costs 2 1 1 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 23 Costs can be reduced by o the impact of R&D o scale-up economies of scale o experiential learning. o scope for integration with other processes and leveraging/using existing infrastructure o adding value to co-and by-products o Reducing financing costs Production (right axis) Support costs to buy down costs c 1Bn$ -.5% of fossil fuel costs in transport
Deliver the necessary feedstock sustainably 3 25 2 15 1 5 EJ MSW Residues Forestry operations Agriculture Total -Minimum Total Maximum 2DS/B2DS needs Deployment will need wastes, residues, forestry and energy crops Produced in line with sustainable resource management, forestry and agricultural practice Produced with minimized impacts on land use change emissions by coproduction with food, use of under-productive land, improved production Supported by general effort to improve agricultural productivity and efficiency
What next? Influencing - Strategy for IEA Bioenergy - Biofuture Platform - MI Sustainable Bioenergy Challenge Follow up of key deployment indicators via IEA Clean Energy Progress Report. Continued cooperation/coordination of international organisations - Potential for cost reduction for advanced biofuels - Potential for bioenergy in industry (along with other renewables) - Role of international aid agencies and lenders in bioenergy - Expanded work on synergies between bioenergy and wider bioeconomy - Identification of policy best practice for stimulation of sustainable bioenergy including novel biofuels - Effective application of sustainability criteria for bioenergy, including for forestry based biomass.
Conclusions Sustainable bioenergy is an essential element in the portfolio of measures needed for a low carbon scenario. Biofuels can play a particularly important role in the transport sectors. Advanced biofuels key to success low emissions, use in aviation and shipping Progress is much slower than necessary so we need to: - Expand deployment of existing technologies - Commercialise the new technologies - Develop sustainable supply chains and appropriate sustainability governance systems - Build technical and regulatory capacity in a much wider range of countries and regions