Parviz KHAKIMOV Independent Researcher, Tajikistan Integration processes in the CIS region and their implications for agricultural trade, 26-27 March 2015, Kaliningrad, Russia
1. Rationale of the Study 2. Objective & Research Questions 3. Methodology 4. Results 5. Conclusion 4/13/2015 2
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1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Annual growth of GDP and Remittances (%) GDP annual per capita growth (%) 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0-30.0 120 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40 GDP growth Remittances growth (auxiliary axis) 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0-30.0-35.0 GDP per capita growth (annual %) Source: Own compilation based on World Development Indicators of World Bank. 2013 4/13/2015 4
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 36.7 34.1 21.6 7.6 Nominal GDP by economic sectors (percent) Other sectors: Transport & communication; Construction sector; Logistic & procurement; Market and non-market services; Excises 36 32 25.7 25.5 23.7 22 14.6 20.5 32.8 25.1 25.4 22.1 20.1 33.2 21.7 19.7 33.2 31 25.1 10.7 33.5 32.2 23.8 10.5 41.1 33.3 34.2 33.1 30.4 22.2 11.4 24.2 11.2 23.6 19.2 39.9 40.3 22.7 21.2 16.1 16.2 21.5 21.3 19.4 45.9 18.3 16.9 16.4 46.5 19.9 19.4 14.2 Industry Agriculture Other sectors Trade Source: Own compilation based on the data of Agency on Statistics of the Republic of Tajikistan. Statistical yearbook Socio-economic indicators. 2004 & 2010. 4/13/2015 5
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Objective To assess the impact of Tajikistan s WTO and EAEU accessions on its agricultural sector. Research questions How does the accession of the WTO and EAEU effects consumers. producers and the state budget in Tajikistan? How will value of agricultural production & the balance of trade changes? 4/13/2015 7
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The main research tool for the analysis is a AGRISIM partialequilibrium net trade model. COUNTRIES & REGION COMMODITIES Australia Mexico Livestock Crops Brazil Russia Beef & Veal Wheat Canada South Africa Milk Coarse grains China Tajikistan Pig meat Maize Egypt Ukraine Poultry Rice, refined European Union 27 USA Eggs Sugar, refined India Uzbekistan Mutton & Goat Cotton, fiber Japan Rest of the World Oils Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan World 4/13/2015 9
AGRISIM includes 67 equations: Commodity balance sheet; Yield and area functions; Net trade equations; Prices; Price transmission elasticity; Developed & simulated scenarios: Base assumption population growth; Scenario 1 (WTO) BA plus commodity specific bounded tariffs under WTO agreement; Scenario 2 (EAEU) BA plus all import tariffs are zero. Welfare functions; Elasticities, etc. 4/13/2015 10
Tajikistan Population growth & tariffs changes Population growth & tariffs changes 4/13/2015 Source: Own illustration based on Roningen (1997). 11
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Value of Agricultural Production (million USD) 791 789 775 BA WTO EAEU 4/13/2015 Source: own compilation based on AGRISIM simulation results 13
Value of Agricultural Production Change in Scenario (million USD) WTO accession Changes (WTO against BA) EAEU accession Changes (EAEU against BA) million % million USD % BA WTO BA EAEU USD Beef & veal 69.4 46.8-32.6-22.6 69.4 46.3-33.4-23.2 Coarse grain 11.9 12.9 9.1 1.1 11.9 13.8 16.3 1.9 Cotton, fibre 83.6 219.6 162.6 136.0 83.6 209.6 150.7 126.0 Eggs 9.0 3.1-65.3-5.9 9.0 3.7-59.4-5.4 Maize 26.3 30.6 16.2 4.3 26.3 29.5 12.2 3.2 Milk 124.4 177.4 42.6 53.0 124.4 165.0 32.7 40.6 Mutton & goat 73.7 80.2 8.9 6.6 73.7 72.9-1.0-0.8 Oilseeds 156.0 162.8 4.3 6.7 156.0 156.1 0.0 0.0 Pork 1.6 1.9 22.2 0.3 1.6 1.6 4.9 0.1 Poultry 1.2 0.5-57.4-0.7 1.2 0.4-61.6-0.7 Rice, refined 56.7 28.5-49.8-28.2 56.7 29.1-48.7-27.6 Sugar, refined 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Wheat 161.7 26.6-83.5-135.1 161.7 61.4-62.0-100.3 Total 775.5 791.0 2.0 15.5 775.5 789.4 1.8 13.9 4/13/2015 Source: own compilation based on AGRISIM simulation results 14
Balance of Trade Changes (million USD) BA WTO EAEU -76-130 -125 4/13/2015 Source: own compilation based on AGRISIM simulation results 15
Balance of Trade Changes (million USD) BA WTO accession Changes (WTO against BA) million % WTO USD BA EAEU accession Changes (EAEU against BA) million % EAEU USD Beef & veal -26.5-30.7-15.9-4.2-26.5-34.5-30.5-8.1 Coarse grain -2.8-0.9 67.4 1.9-2.8-1.2 58.7 1.6 Cotton, fibre 153.3 157.1 2.5 3.8 153.3 179.8 17.3 26.5 Eggs -6.1-7.9-29.9-1.8-6.1-8.7-43.3-2.6 Maize -3.1 2.1 170.1 5.2-3.1 0.4 113.9 3.5 Milk -15.4-4.1 73.3 11.3-15.4-5.8 62.5 9.7 Mutton & goat -8.4-9.6-14.5-1.2-8.4-11.8-40.1-3.4 Oils -39.2-18.6 52.7 20.7-39.2-28.7 26.9 10.5 Pork -7.5-7.4 1.7 0.1-7.5-7.5 0.2 0.0 Poultry -11.4-13.2-15.9-1.8-11.4-13.9-22.2-2.5 Rice, refined -2.1-9.5-359.2-7.5-2.1-8.6-314.7-6.5 Sugar, refined -71.3-68.9 3.4 2.4-71.3-71.6-0.5-0.3 Wheat -89.6-64.4 28.2 25.2-89.6-112.7-25.8-23.1 Total -130.0-75.8 42.0 54.2-130.0-124.7 4.0 5.3 4/13/2015 Source: own compilation based on AGRISIM simulation results 16
Welfare changes (million USD) 400 300 358 321 286 200 148 208 100 67 46 27 96 0 BA WTO EAEU -100-87 -200-184 -175 Producer surplus Consumer surplus Budget Total 4/13/2015 Source: own compilation based on AGRISIM simulation results 17
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The country's accession to the WTO and the EAEU has a positive effect on both, producers and consumers, with substantial losses to the budget. An application of smaller import tariffs, under international trade agreement (WTO), in open and small economy, net importer of agricultural products, like Tajikistan, will allow to minimize the losses of the losers and maximize the gain of the gainers, than applying zero tariffs within the regional trade agreement. The effects of the WTO and EAEU accession on other sectors of economy, using CGE model, are subject of the further studies. 4/13/2015 19
Email: parviz_khakimov@yahoo.com 4/13/2015 20