Towards a road map for hunger reduction Charles Riemenschneider Director, Liaison Office for North America Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Millennium Development Goals 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger 2. Achieve universal primary education 3. Promote gender equality and empower women 4. Reduce child mortality 5. Improve maternal health 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases 7. Ensure environmental sustainability 8. Develop a global partnership for development
842 million are undernourished Number of undernourished people in the developing world: observed and projected ranges compared with the World food Summit target. 1000 Millions Millions 1000 900 900 800 800 Undernourished People in Developing Countries Point estimates prepared in 2003 815 million 700 Business as usual 600 500 On track Point estimates made in 2003 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 400 300
Our knowledge and understanding of hunger reduction imply 7 key lessons
Lesson 1: Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient for hunger reduction 1990-2002 Average GDP growth rate p.c. (>3.5%) High China India Indonesia Peru Ghana Vietnam Low Jamaica Venezuela Zambia Chad Niger Syria High Change in undernourishment (>7%) Low Source: FAO
Lesson 2: Hunger reduction is fundamental for development and poverty reduction Poverty and undernourishment, 1995-2000 Poverty and undernourishment: trends % of the population living with< 1 US$/day <5 5-19 20-34 35 % of the population undernourished Source: FAO
Lesson 3: Investment in agricultural and rural development is crucial for increased availability and access to food and for enhancing income earning opportunities Trends in undernourishment and GDP, 1990-1992 to 1995-97 and 1995-97 to 1999-2001 Countries where the number of undernourished people: Capital stock in agriculture % of population undernourished 2000-02 <2.5 Decreased in both sub-periods Increased then decreased Decreased then increased Increased in both sub-periods 0 1 2 3 Average annual growth in agricultural GDP (%) 2.5-4 5-19 20-34 >= 35 1996-2001 1976-80 Source: FAO 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Capital stock per agricultural worker 000 s (constant 1995 US$)
Lesson 4: Technology development can improve food supplies but not necessarily access to food World rice production and price (constant US$2002), 1961-2003 1700 Metric tonnes 700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500 300 Production Price 600 500 400 300 200 100 100 1961 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 Source: FAO/IRRI
Lesson 5: The state could play an important role in the provision of public goods and safety nets, and through sound macroeconomic management Expenditure for agriculture External assistance to agriculture % of population undernourished % of population undernourished <2.5 <2.5 2.5-4 1996-98 1990-92 average 2. 5-4 5-19 5-19 1999-2001 1990-92 20-34 20-34 >= 35 >= 35 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Agricultural orientation index 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Total external assistance to agriculture (constant 1995 US$ per agricultural worker)
Lesson 6: Trade openness and integration can lead to important gains in hunger and poverty reduction Integration in agricultural trade and undernourishment % of population undernourished <2.5 2.5-4 5-19 1996-2000 20-34 >= 35 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 Agricultural imports and exports as a share of agricultural GDP (%)
Lesson 7: Peace and stability are sine qua non conditions for growth and hunger reduction Hunger hotspots in 2004 Major armed conflict / human insecurity (latest)
From lessons learned to a road map for hunger reduction: the twin-track approach Availability Access Stability Utilization Track 1: improving long-run sustainability of food Track 2: addressing immediate food requirements Cross-cutting conditions: creating an enabling environment for food security
Track 1: Rural development and productivity enhancement Availability Access Stability Utilization Improving productivity and production capacity, esp. of small-scale farmers Investing in rural markets and infrastructure Enhancing urban food supplies Promoting incomeearning opportunities Enhancing access to assets Facilitating the creation of of rural non-farm enterprises Improving Improving transition transition and and sequencing sequencing of of emergency emergency rehabilitation-development efforts efforts Facilitating diversification Reducing production variability (irrigation, water harvesting, pest control, etc.) Food handling and storage infrastructure Food safety regulations and institutions Safe drinking water and sanitation Improving the functioning of input and output markets Improving the functioning of rural financial systems and labour markets Monitoring production and consumption short falls Improving access to credit and saving services
Track 2: Direct and immediate access to food Availability Access Stability Utilization Food aid Market information School meals Food for work programmes Emergency food relief Safety nets Nutrition intervention and education programmes Transport and communication Cash transfers Community and extended family structures
Cross-cutting conditions Growth Trade Macroeconomic stability Governance institutions Secure access to assets Market institutions
The policy agenda Bring hunger to the forefront of poverty reduction Address immediate hunger in the context of longterm food security and development Develop flexible support for the resilience of food and agricultural systems in crisis situations Place anti-hunger policy in the context of the macro-economic environment Good governance and institutions that are participatory are fundamental to fighting hunger
MDG Hunger Task Force Recommendations 1. Move from political commitment to action 2. Reform policies and create an enabling environment 3. Increase agricultural productivity of food-insecure farmers 4. Improve nutrition for the chronically hungry and vulnerable 5. Reduce vulnerability of acutely hungry with productive safety nets 6. Increase incomes and make markets work for the poor 7. Restore and conserve natural resources essential for food security