Carbon, Poverty and the Energy Transition Dilemma

PESA September, 218 Tinker 218 Carbon, Poverty and the Energy Transition Dilemma Scott W. Tinker

Tinker 218 The Western Narrative Renewables and batteries are clean and good Fossil energy and nuclear are dirty and bad

Tinker 218 The Transition Dilemma Most people do not know how electricity is made or where gasoline comes from. But they think they do!

Outline Tinker 218 Energy Carbon Poverty Radical Middle

Energy Security Tinker 218 Affordable Cost: per unit of energy Price Volatility: stable or fluctuating Available Reliable Sustainable Infrastructure: cost to build the plant Access: substantial resources Intermittent: source consistent or variable Safe: natural/human causes Clean: air and atmospheric emissions Dense: energy per area, weight and volume Dry: fresh water use/risk

The Global Energy Mix Tinker 217 218 Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent 365 583 893 4331 Hydro Nuclear Renew Petroleum 384 86% Coal Nat Gas 3135 Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent 151 83 216 429 136 The Global Energy Mix 194 143 264 862 468 93 11 1 6 Tinker 217 218 881 2 27 4 441 426 362 111 95 151 Hydro Nuclear Coal Renew Petroleum 37 5 24 153 157 323 97 183 86% 122 2798 631 Nat Gas Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent Nuclear Coal Hydro 151 83 216 429 Renew Nat Gas 881 Petroleum 136 37 153 5 Global Energy Demand 24 157 323 194 143 264 468 93 862 11 1 6 362 111 95 426 441 2 27 4 151 97 18 3 631 2798 122 Tinker 217 218 Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Global Energy Mix Global Energy Consumption (MTOE) Tinker 218 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

14, 12, 1, 8, 6, Global Energy Mix Global Energy Consumption (MTOE) The world could be 1% wind, wave and solar by 23, if just for political will Tinker 218 4, 2, 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

World electricity generation 1 by fuel (TWh) 28, Electricity Generation By Region World electricity generation 1 from 1971 to 215 by region (TWh) Tinker 218 24, 2, 16, 12, 8, 4, Africa Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia 2 China Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East OECD 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Excludes electricity generation from pumped storage. 2. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. QAe6822

World electricity generation 1 by fuel (TWh) 28, 24, 2, 16, 12, 8, 4, Electricity Generation by Source World electricity generation 1 from 1971 to 215 by source (TWh) Tinker 218 Non-hydro renewables and waste 2 Hydro Nuclear Fossil thermal 1. Excludes electricity generation from pumped storage. 2. Includes geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean, biofuels, waste, heat and other. 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6811

3 Nuclear Electricity Production World nuclear electricity production from 1971 to 215 by region (TWh) Tinker 218 25 2 15 1 5 Other 2 China Non-OECD Asia 1 Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia OECD 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. 2. Other includes Africa, Non-OECD Americas and the Middle East. QAe6817

Hydro Electricity Production Tinker 218 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 World hydro electricity production 1 from 1971 to 215 by region (TWh) 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Includes electricity production from pumped storage. 2. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. Africa Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia 2 China Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East OECD QAe6819

Wind Electricity Production Tinker 218 World wind electricity production from 25 to 215 by region (TWh) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. Africa Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia 1 China Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East OECD QAe682

World electricity generation 1 by fuel (TWh) Electricity Generation by Source Tinker 216 28, 24, 2, 16, Non-hydro renewables and waste 2 Hydro 12, Nuclear Fossil thermal 8, 4, 1. Excludes electricity generation from pumped storage. 2. Includes geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean, biofuels, waste, heat and other. 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Wind Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6811

Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. Wind Electricity Production Growth in U.S. Wind Generation Million Kwh World wind electricity production 2 214 from 25 to 215 by region (TWh) 45, 9 4, 8 35, 7 3, 6 25, 5 2, 4 Iowa 15, 1, 3 5, 2 Illinois 1 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Tinker 216 Africa Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia 1 China California Oklahoma Kansas Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East OECD Texas QAe5771 QAe682

Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Production Tinker 218 3 World solar PV electricity production from 25 to 215 by region (TWh) 25 2 15 5 Africa Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia 1 China Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. OECD QAe6821

Average Module Price $ / watt 15 12 Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Production United States Solar photovoltaics Source: Economist, Solar Energy Industries Association Tinker 218 9 6 3 21 11 12 13 14 15 16 QAe5833 Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. QAe6821

World electricity generation 1 by fuel (TWh) Electricity Generation by Source Tinker 218 28, 24, 2, 16, Non-hydro renewables and waste 2 Hydro 12, Nuclear Fossil thermal 8, 4, 1. Excludes electricity generation from pumped storage. 2. Includes geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean, biofuels, waste, heat and other. 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6811

Population and Energy ~45% Tinker 218 Asia 12 The world 1 could be 1% 8 195 197 199 21 23 25 27 21 6 4 2 Global Population (B) wind, wave and solar by 23, if just for political will Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

Population and Energy ~45% Tinker 218 12 1 Asia 8 6 4 2 Global Population (B) 195 197 199 21 23 25 27 21 Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

Population and Energy ~45% Tinker 218 Are there affordable, available, reliable and sustainable: 12 fossil energy and nuclear resources to meet this demand? 1 renewable energy resources to meet this demand? ~15, Tcf (5X to date) ~2,6 Bbo (2X to date) Asia 8 6 4 2 Global Population (B) 195 197 199 21 23 25 27 21 Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

Production cost (28 $/Mbtu) Produced Conventional Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water 15 1 5 Natural Gas Cost of Supply Resources v. Cost Tight 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 3, Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) 15, Tcf Shale Sour Resources (Tcf) Hydrates Tinker 218 QAe98

Tinker 218 Production cost (28 $/Mmbtu) Produced Conventional Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water Natural Gas Cost of Supply Resources v. Cost 15 1 5 Tight 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 3, Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Global Consumption 115 Tcfy Shale Sour ~ 3 year total resource Resources (Tcf) Hydrates QAe98

Produced Conventional Production cost (28 $/Mbtu) Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water 15 1 Natural Gas Cost of Supply Resources v. Cost Tinker 218 Technology, 3, 6, 9, 12, Policy 15, 18, and 21, 24, Demand 27, 3, Resources (Tcf) Hydrates Sour Reserves Tight and Shale production are a 5 Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Global Consumption 215 123 Tcfy The Global Resource is Vast function ~ of 3 year Price, total resource Cost, QAe98

Production cost (28 $) Oil Cost of Supply Resources and Cost Tinker 218 14 12 1 8 6 4 Arctic 2,6 Bbo EOR Deepwater and ultra-deepwater CO 2 EOR Other conventional oil Heavy oil & bitumen Oil shales Shale oil Gas to liquids Coal to liquids 2 Produced MENA 2 4 6 8 1, Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Resources (billion barrels)

Tinker 218 Bakken/Three Forks Marcellus Barnett Permian Basin Permian in progress Basin Fayetteville Haynesville Eagle Ford For presentation or publication, reference: Bureau of Economic Geology Shale Resource and Production Project http://www.beg.utexas.edu/research/programs/shale

Gas Tcf Original In-Place Oil Bakken/Three Forks Bbbl 31 45 Tech. Recoverable 7 27 Production to date 7 5 ~18, ~1, Bakken/Three Forks Horizontal wells to date ~75,~ Future wells (base case) ~5, ~5, Gas Marcellus Marcellus Oil Resourcein-Place ~16,5 TRR Produced to-date 218 Tinker,Tinker 215 Barnett Barnett ~63, ~1,5 ~2, ~6,5 Fayetteville Fayetteville ~13, Permian Basin Permian Basin in progress Haynesville Haynesville Eagle Ford ~16,5 ~9, Eagle Ford ~6, ~35, For presentation or publication, reference: Bureau of Economic Geology Shale Resource and Production Project http://www.beg.utexas.edu/research/programs/shale

Gas Tcf Original In-Place Oil Bakken/Three Forks Bbbl 31 45 Tech. Recoverable 7 27 Production to date 7 5 218 Tinker,Tinker 215 ~18, ~1, Horizontal wells to date ~75,~ Future wells (base case) ~5, ~5, Gas Marcellus Oil Resourcein-Place TRR Produced to-date Barnett ~16,5 ~63, ~1,5 ~2, ~6,5 Fayetteville ~13, Permian Basin in progress Haynesville Eagle Ford ~16,5 ~9, ~6, ~35, For presentation or publication, reference: Bureau of Economic Geology Shale Resource and Production Project http://www.beg.utexas.edu/research/programs/shale

Gas Tcf Original In-Place Oil Bbbl 31 45 Tech. Recoverable 7 27 Production to date 7 5 Horizontal wells to date ~75,~ Future wells (base case) ~5, ~5, Gas Bakken/Three Forks For presentation or publication, reference: Bureau of Economic Tinker 218 Geology Shale Resource and Production Project http://www.beg.utexas.edu/research/programs/shale ~18, ~1, Recovery to Date 2% of the natural gas 1% of the oil Marcellus Oil Resourcein-Place TRR Produced to-date Barnett ~16,5 ~63, ~6,5 Fayetteville ~13, Haynesville Eagle Ford ~16,5 ~9, ~1,5 ~2, ~6, ~35,

MMbbl/d U.S. Crude Oil Production 1 8 6 4 Rest of U.S. Federal Gulf of Mexico Permian Region Eagle Ford Region Bakken Region Tinker 218 1.7 Mbod ~ 7% of U.S. Oil Production from Shale Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Drilling Productivity Report regions, Petroleum Supply Monthly, Natural Gas Monthly 2 Shale QAe4665

Thousand barrels/year Annual US Oil Production Tinker 218 4 years! From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 212

Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 38% 16% 41% Global Energy Mix Global Energy Consumption Mix 95% 86% Tinker 218 33% 24% 29% % 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass

Population and Energy Tinker 218 12 1 Asia 8 6 4 2 Global Population (B) 195 197 199 21 23 25 27 21 Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

Population and Energy Tinker 218 12 1 Asia 8 6 4 2 Global Population (B) Asia 195 197 199 21 23 25 27 21 Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

Population and Energy ~45% Tinker 218 12 1 Asia 8 6 4 2 Global Population (B) Asia 195 197 199 21 23 25 27 21 Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

Population and Energy Tinker 218 12 1 1 Years Asia ~35% ~25% ~4% 195 197 199 21 23 25 27 21 8 6 4 2 Global Population (B) Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

Natural Gas, Nuclear 1.25.75 Global Primary Energy.5.5 215 6% 3% 1%.75 265 4% 25% 35%.25 1965 8% 15% 5% 1.25 Wind, Solar, Hydro.5.75 1 Coal, Oil, Biomass

Natural Gas, Nuclear 1.25.75 Global Primary Energy.5 4% 4% 2% 265.5 215 6% 3% 1%.75 265 4% 25% 35%.25 1965 8% 15% 5% 1.25 Wind, Solar, Hydro.5.75 1 Coal, Oil, Biomass

Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) by Energy Source (Mtoe) Tinker 218 People s Rep. of China ~69% ~16% ~15% United States ~16% ~38% ~45% Coal 1 Oil India Natural gas Renewables Russian Federation Japan Other 2 1. In this graph peat and oil shale are aggregated with coal. 2. Other includes nuclear, electricity trade, heat, nonrenewable waste. 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6815

Total Final Consumption by Sector (Mtoe) Tinker 218 People s Rep. of China United States India Russian Federation Japan Industry Transport Residential Other 1 Non-energy use 1. Other consumption includes commercial and public services, agriculture/forestry, fishing and non-specified. 5 1, 1,5 2, Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6816

Environmental Impact Coal, Oil, Natural Gas Tinker 218 Mining and Manufacturing Land, Water, Emissions Drilling and Completion: Land, Water Transportation: Pipelines, Trucks, Ships, Rail Refining and Petrochemicals: Emissions Combustion: Vehicle and Power Plant Emissions

Tinker 218 Is this a Shale Basin?

No, it s New York! Tinker 218

Tinker 218 The Western Narrative Fossil energy and nuclear are dirty and bad Renewables and batteries are clean and good

Environmental Impact Renewables and Batteries Tinker 218 Mining and Processing Land, Water, Emissions Manufacturing: Turbines, Panels, Batteries Production: Land for Farms Transmission: Electricity Disposal: Landfill

Energy Tinker 218 Key Points Fossil energy demand remains strong, and resources are vast Wind and solar are a small component of the mix, but growing quickly in some regions No form of energy, at scale, is without environmental impact

Outline Tinker 218 Energy Carbon Poverty Radical Middle

Yogi Tinker 218 In theory there ain t no difference between theory and practice, but in practice there is.

16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions (Million Tonnes) Tinker 216 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

16, 4, 35, 14, 3, 12, 25, 1, 2, 8, 15, 6, 1, 4, 5, 2, CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions (Million Tonnes) CO 2 Emissions (Million Tonnes) Tinker 218 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Asia Pacific Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Africa Total S. & Cent. America Total Middle East Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions (Million Tonnes) ~16/34 GT Import Products Tinker 216 Export CO2 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Asia Pacific Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions (Million Tonnes) Don t blame Asia! They make products for the world. Tinker 216 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Asia Pacific ~16/34 GT Total Africa Total S. & Cent. America Total Middle East Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

Electricity Use (212: Billion KwH) Tinker 218 Data Center Networks Powering Devices Manufacturing QAe5585 Source: Emerging Trends in Electricity Consumption for Consumer ICT, Peter Corcoran and Andres Andrae (213) and CIA World Factbook. China/Russia/Canada figures are from 214.

Baseload The Future Electricity Mix Tinker 218 12 North America Quadrillion BTUs Europe 12 12 Asia Pacific 1 8 1 Electricity Generation by Fuel 8 1 8 6 6 6 4 Renewables 4 4 Nuclear 2 Coal 2 2 Gas Oil 198 25 23 198 25 23 198 25 23 ExxonMobil Corporation, 21, The outlook for energy: a view to 23: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

Percent of total Tinker 218 U.S. Electric Generation Shares (25-15) 1% 2% Nuclear 8% 8% Renewables 6% 18% Other Natural gas 4% Fracking! 21% 13% 32% 2% 51% Coal 34% % 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Source: EIA QAe4744

Percent of total Tinker 218 U.S. Electric Generation Shares (25-15) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% 8% 18% Nuclear Renewables Other Natural gas ~ 2% CO 2 Reduction! 21% 13% 32% % of CO 2 2% 3% 2% 51% Coal 34% 68% % 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Source: EIA QAe4744

Quadrillion Btu 2 18 US Energy Mix Tinker 218 16 14 12 1 8 Total Energy Consumed 6 Nuclear Oil 4 Natural Gas 2 Coal 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 After Jim Sweeney, 215. Data: EIA, Monthly Energy Review Imports Fracking Wind & Solar Biofuels Hydro

Quadrillion Btu 2 US Energy Mix Tinker 218 18 16 14 12 Growth.55% less than GDP 8 Quads Efficiency 1 8 Total Energy Consumed 6 Nuclear Oil 4 Natural Gas 2 Coal 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 After Jim Sweeney, 215. Data: EIA, Monthly Energy Review Imports Fracking Wind & Solar Biofuels Hydro

The Future Electricity Mix Tinker 218 12 North America Quadrillion BTUs Europe 12 12 Asia Pacific 1 8 1 Electricity Generation by Fuel 8 1 8 6 6 6 4 Renewables 4 4 Nuclear 2 Coal 2 2 Oil Gas 198 25 23 198 25 23 198 25 23 ExxonMobil Corporation, 21, The outlook for energy: a view to 23: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

Power generation (TWh) European Coal Generation Tinker 216 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 892 819 841 86 798 788 164 157 694 177 173 136 132 143 131 19 11 76 12 18 24 32 23 21 25 25 44 55 41 29 4 44 53 37 4 45 49 45 43 43 37 47 47 44 42 37 41 41 42 137 14 135 138 13 13 129 263 262 277 283 274 272 26 Germany Poland Czech Italy Spain Netherlands UK Other *preliminary QAe5339

Power generation (TWh) European Natural Gas Power Generation Tinker 216 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 766 74 176 169 74 68 95 86 92 89 153 145 176 147 Coal 586 511 147 461 497 56 123 13 124 73 55 52 47 57 79 47 52 7 64 64 129 19 94 19 11 97 12 11 598 147 53 53 81 119 146 UK Italy Germany Spain Netherlands Other *preliminary QAe534

Tonnes of coal equivalent, bn China Energy Consumption by Fuel Type Tinker 218 Coal Petroleum Hydro, nuclear, and wind power Natural gas 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 Source: Economist, National Bureau of Statistics QAe5832

Coal Production Tinker 218 9 World coal 1 production from 1971 to 216 by region (Mt) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1971 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 216 Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Includes steam coal, coking coal, lignite and recovered coal. 2. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. Africa Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia 2 China Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East OECD QAe689

5 4 3 2 1 8 Actual Cost of Electricity Average national electricity prices (in 211 US cents/kwh) Data: average prices from 211 converted at mean exchange rate for that year Affordable Available Reliable 8 1 1 1 11 12 17 18 19 2 26 28 29 3 35 Tinker 218 41 India Canada Mexico China S. Africa France Nigeria Brazil USA Russia Sources: IEA, EIA, national electricity boards, OANDA, shrinkthatfootprint.com UK Japan Italy Australia Spain Germany Denmark

Actual Cost of Electricity Tinker 218 Affordable Available Reliable

Auto Sales Developing Nations Rolling 12-month (million) 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 26 28 21 212 214 216 Tinker 218 India Brazil Mexico Russia Indonesia Thailand Source: National car data, Macquarie Research, January 217 QAe5762

3 25 2 15 1 5 Auto Sales Developed Nations Rolling 12-month (million) Recession ~ 27 MM Tinker 218 China USA EU28 Japan India 26 28 21 212 214 216 Source: National car data, Macquarie Research, January 217 QAe5761

Annual sales (light plug-in electric vehicles) Global Annual Sales Light-Duty Plug-In Electric Vehicles (211 216) Tinker 218 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, < 2% Canada Japan China Western Europe United States 1, 211 212 213 214 215 216 Source: Argonne National Laboratory, United States Department of Energy QAe5893

Million Cumulative Electric-Vehicle Forecasts Tinker 216 6 5 216 217 Bloomberg OPEC ExxonMobil EIA 4 3 2 1 22 25 3 35 4 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Economist.com; EIA, WEO, 217 QAe5779

Million Cumulative Electric-Vehicle Forecasts Tinker 216 6 216 217 Bloomberg OPEC ExxonMobil EIA 5 4 3 12,, Batteries in 12 yrs avg 1,,/yr. 2 ~1% of Global Vehicle Fleet 1 22 25 3 35 4 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Economist.com; EIA, WEO, 217 QAe5779

Million Cumulative Electric-Vehicle Forecasts Tinker 216 6 216 217 Bloomberg OPEC ExxonMobil EIA 5 4 3 2 ~1% of Global Vehicle Fleet 1 2,, Batteries in 24 yrs avg 5,,/yr. 22 25 3 35 4 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Economist.com; EIA, WEO, 217 QAe5779

Electricity TFC by sector (Mtoe) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 1971 Total Final Consumption by Sector Electricity 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Tinker 218 Other 1 Transport Commercial and public services Residential Industry 1. Includes agriculture, fishing and non-specified other. Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6813

Tinker 218 CO 2 Reduction Strategies Efficiency Fuel Substitution Carbon Capture and Sequestration Adaptation to Warming

Carbon Tinker 218 Key Points Renewables will grow, but not soon enough or large enough to reduce CO 2 emissions at scale Natural gas and nuclear can reduce CO 2 emissions at scale and in needed time frames Reduce methane emissions! Electric Vehicle growth will not mitigate the demand for liquid petroleum fuels

Outline Tinker 218 Energy Carbon Poverty Radical Middle

Billion people People Without Access to Electricity and Clean Cooking Facilities Tinker 218 3 2.5 People without clean cooking access 2 1.5 1 People without access to electricity Other developing Asia China Other developing Asia Southeast Asia.5 2 24 28 212 216 2 215 India Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe687

ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH /CAP Limited Access to Electricity Restricts Standard of Living 16 14 United States Developed 12 Australia 1 Russia Saudi Arabia Japan U.S. GDP > 2X 8 Developing 6 South Korea China Germany 4 Emerging Brazil Malaysia 2 Mexico Niger Ecuador India 1 2 3 4 5 6 Ghana Haiti GDP/CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Undeveloped Source: World Bank Databank 199 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 11 12 13 14 15

ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH /CAP Limited Access to Electricity Restricts Standard of Living 16 14 United States Developed 12 1 Niger 8 6 4 2 Brazil Undeveloped Russia Developing China Saudi Arabia 2.5 billion people Australia Ecuador South Korea Mexico Malaysia Japan Germany U.S. GDP > 2X India 1 2 3 4 5 6 Ghana Haiti GDP/CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 11 12 13 14 15

ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality 16 14 United States 12 1 8 Russia Saudi Arabia Australia Switch Japan 6 4 2 Niger 4.5 billion South Korea China Germany Brazil Malaysia Mexico Ecuador India 1 2 3 4 5 6 Ghana Haiti GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 Photo 199 92 Tinker, 92 93 93 Ecuador, 94 94 95 95 217 96 97 98 99 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 921 21 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16

ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality 16 14 United States 12 Australia 1 8 Russia Saudi Arabia Japan 6 4 2 Niger Brazil China Switch On 2.5 billion Ecuador South Korea Mexico Malaysia Germany India 1 2 3 4 5 6 Ghana Haiti GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 Photo 199 92 Tinker, 92 93 93 Ecuador, 94 94 95 95 217 96 97 98 99 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 921 21 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16

ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Niger Australia Saudi Arabia Russia United States Switch Japan On 2.5 billion South Korea China Germany Brazil Malaysia Mexico Ecuador India 1 2 3 4 5 6 Ghana Haiti GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 Photo 199 92 Tinker, 92 93 93 Ecuador, 94 94 95 95 217 96 97 98 99 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 921 21 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16

Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality It s Time to Educate & Power the People ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 United States 14 12 Australia 1 Russia Saudi Arabia 8 6 4.5 billion South Korea China 4 Brazil Niger 3 billion India 1 Ghana Haiti Germany Malaysia Switch On 2 Switch Japan Ecuador Mexico 2 3 4 GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ 5 6 Source: World Bank Databank Photo Tinker, Ecuador, 217 199 199 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 2 2 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 921 21 11 11 12 12 13 13 1 2 2 3 3 4 14 14 16 15 15

Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality It s Time to Educate & Power the People ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 United States 14 12 Australia 1 Russia Saudi Arabia 8 6 4.5 billion South Korea China 4 Brazil Switch On 2 Niger 3 billion India 1 Ghana Haiti Switch Japan Germany Malaysia http://switchon.org Mexico Ecuador 2 3 4 GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ 5 6 Source: World Bank Databank Photo Tinker, Ecuador, 217 199 199 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 2 2 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 921 21 11 11 12 12 13 13 1 2 2 3 3 4 14 14 16 15 15

Electrification rate 213, % Poverty and electricity access in selected developing countries, circles sized by total population Africa Asia Latin America * Bangladesh uses 25 PPP and $2 a day poverty line Purchasing power parity Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 215 Electricity and Poverty 1 8 6 4 2 Brazil Electricity Vietnam China Cameroon Kenya Tanzania Uganda India Bangladesh* Nigeria Ethiopia Poverty 2 4 6 8 1 Income % (<$3.1 a day at 211 PPP, %) Tinker 218 Photos Tinker, Lynch, Ecuador, 217 QAe521

Electrification rate 213, % Poverty and electricity access in selected developing countries, circles sized by total population Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 215 Electricity and Poverty 1 Brazil Electricity China India Tinker 218 8 Vietnam Energy does not end poverty. Bangladesh* Africa 6 Asia Cameroon Nigeria Latin Poverty America cannot 4 be ended without energy. Tanzania * Bangladesh uses 25 PPP and $2 2 Kenya Ethiopia a day poverty line Poverty Purchasing power Uganda parity 2 4 6 8 1 Income % (<$3.1 a day at 211 PPP, %) Photos Tinker, Lynch, Ecuador, 217 QAe521

Poverty Tinker 218 Key Points Energy underpins modern economies and helps lift the world from poverty Energy resources vary by region and nations will use the energy resources that they have to reduce energy poverty

Outline Tinker 218 Energy Carbon Poverty Radical Middle

Carbon Tinker 218 Climate Change is the major issue of our time, and fossil fuels are the problem Poverty is the major issue of our time, and fossil fuels are the solution Poverty Interactive Systems Political Energy

Tinker 216 Environment Economy Radical Middle Energy

Tinker 218 Environment Politics, economics, and passion run deep on all sides of the climate change and poverty debate. Economy Energy

Tinker 218 Environment Is civil energy discourse possible? Economy Radical Middle Energy

Tinker 216 Environment Radical Middle Economy Energy

Tinker 216 Environment Economy Radical Middle Energy

Towards a Radical Middle Tinker 218 Understand that no form of energy is good or bad Assess the environmental impact of all energy Focus energy policy on energy security Make energy efficiency and energy storage tactical Recognize energy poverty as a critical challenge Engage in Energy Education!

keep it in the Ground.

Keep them in Poverty.

Lift them from Poverty! Africa from IEA, 218

Tinker 216 Environment Radical Middle Economy Energy

Tinker 216 Environment Economy Radical Middle Energy

Tinker 218 Thanks! Join the Switch Energy Alliance SwitchOn.org Inspire an Energy Educated Future