Clean Automotive Technology Innovation that Works http://www.epa.gov/otaq/technology Carbon Constrained/Energy Driven Transitions to 2050 2009 ERC Symposium 10 June, 2009 David Haugen Advanced Technology Division National Vehicle & Fuel Emissions Laboratory 1
We are at an inflection point in our response to Transportation s Energy & Environmental Policy ENVIRONMENTAL FOCUS Criteria Pollutants (Health of the Population) Climate Change (Health of the Planet) TRANSPORTATION ENERGY POLICY Economic Dependence on Oil (Balance of Trade) Geopolitics of Oil Reserves (National Security) Finite Supply w/ Transition Concerns (Cost, Affordable) ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE Brought together-carbon emissions & energy efficiency 2
U.S. - Transportation and Oil Transportation is 97% dependent on petroleum In the U.S., transportation uses 67% of all petroleum 30 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source, 2006 (quadrillion Btu per year) 25 20 15 Electricity Renewable Energy (excluding ethanol) Coal Other Uses 33% Other Transportation 27% 10 5 0 Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Natural Gas Liquid Fuels (petroleum + ethanol) Light Vehicles 40% Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008 3
Trend of US Oil Consumption Considering EISA2007 & ARRA2009 25 US Oil Consumption Million Barrels per Day 20 15 10 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2010 2020 2030 [-] Annual Energy Review 2006. Table 11.10. Energy Information Administration. Report No. DOE/EIA-0384(2006). June 2007. [-] Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009, Reflecting ARRA.Table 21. Energy Information Administration. SR/OIAF/2009-03 Apr09 4
VMT (Billions of Miles per y Improved Vehicle Efficiency offset by more cars driving more miles 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 U.S. Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled Passenger Vehicles All Highway Vehicles MY EISA2007 CAFE Proposal Combined LD Car & Truck CAFE (mpg) Real World (mpg) Tailpipe (CO2 gm/mi) 2009 25.1 20.2 444 2010 25.3 20.4 436 2011 27.8 22.3 398 2012 29.2 23.5 378 2013 30.5 24.6 362 2014 31.0 25.0 356 2015 31.6 25.5 349 2016 32.3 26.0 342 2017 32.9 26.5 336 2018 33.6 27.0 329 2019 34.3 27.6 322 2020 35.0 28.2 315 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Sources: [-] U.S. DOT, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2006, Table VM-1 & Table 3.4 [-] Annual Energy Outlook 2009. Table A7. Energy Information Administration. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2009). March 2009 5
Million Barrels per Day 120 100 80 60 40 20 Global Trend of Oil Consumption 0 World Oil Demand 31% 27% 25% 26% 24% 23% 21% 20% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2010 2020 2030 US China World Vehicles per 1000 people % annual Country/Region 1996 2006 change Africa 23.4 25.6 0.9% Asia, Far East 110.3 154.1 3.4% Asia, Middle East 57.1 63.3 1.0% Central & South America 67.8 99.8 3.9% China 9.3 26.6 11.1% Europe, East 167.0 254.4 4.3% Europe, West 495.6 593.7 1.8% Pacific 459.8 524.7 1.3% United States 780.4 840.3 0.7% Canada 560.0 599.6 0.7% U.S. Population Growth China's Population Growth Global Population Growth 0.95%/year 0.60%/year 1.14%/year [-] Annual Energy Review 2006. Table 11.10. Energy Information Administration. Report No. DOE/EIA-0384(2006). June 2007. [-] Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009, Reflecting ARRA.Table 21. Energy Information Administration. SR/OIAF/2009-03 Apr09 6
Key IPCC Findings on Climate Change Impacts Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. The probability that warming is caused by natural climatic processes alone is less than 5%. Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium. Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate, and sea levels are very likely to change. Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions. Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway. Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time. Source: IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers of Working Group II. 7
Climate Change another policy consideration Not just or even like energy\oil & economics Toward the end of this 21 st century, assuming moderate emissions growth, the United States will be much warmer and dryer. All economic sectors can be expected to participate in GHG reduction strategies. SOURCE: 2008 Draft Technical Support Document on Climate Change (EPAHQOAR-2008-0318-0082) 8
Carbon Constrained On April 17, 2009, EPA s Administrator Jackson signed a proposal that finds six key greenhouse gases CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs & SF 6 threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations. In response to the 2007 US Supreme Court order regarding Mass. v. EPA, EPA is proposing to regulate these GHG emissions from new motor vehicles and motor vehicle engines under 202(a) of the Clean Air Act. Longer term, this suggests that GHG might be addressed in the manner EPA has regulated NOx, CO, HCs, & PM Looking at transportation within the context of section 202(a) of the CAA, it is not unreasonable to expect that any light-duty auto standards could be followed by heavy-duty on and offroad, small engines, and marine Opportunity to comment closes June 23, 2009 9
Mobile Sources have been a Large and Growing Share of the Nation s GHGs - 31.5% of all US sources 2006 U.S. GHG Emissions 104.2Tg 244.3Tg Pipelines 1.5%, Lubricants 0.5% Ships & Boats 5.0% Aircraft 11.6% Other U.S. Sources 68.5% (4920.8 Tg) Transportation 29.3% (2102.8 Tg) Non- Transportation Mobile 2.2% (159.1 Tg) Rail 2.8% Med. & HD Trucks 19.2% Buses 0.6% Motorcycles0.1% Light-Duty Trucks 26.5% Passenger Cars 32.3% Transportation is the fastest-growing source of GHGs in the U.S., accounting for 47 percent of the net increase in total U.S. emissions from 1990-2006. 10
U.S. Transportation Sector GHG Emissions, 2005 Boats and Ships 3.2% Pipelines Rail 1.5% 2.5% Refrigerants and Lubricants 3.8% Buses and Motorcycles 0.8% Aircraft 9.4% Commercial Aircraft 7.9% Passenger Cars 31.4% Freight Trucks 19.1% Light-Duty Trucks 28.1% Light-Duty Vehicles 59.5% Emissions weighted based on global warming potential of greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O and HFCs). Official transportation sector estimates do not include emissions from international bunkers, which are reported in the Inventory but not included in the national total. Emissions from agricultural and construction equipment are classified as nontransportation mobile sources and are reflected in industrial sector totals. Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2005 11
Transportation has a direct and compelling part to play in Climate\Energy solutions U.S. Transportation GHG Emissions Projections and Illustrative Targets Based on Proportional Reductions 5500 5000 4500 4000 Business-As-Usual without 2007 EISA Business-As-Usual with 2007 EISA, 35 mpg and 36 billion gallons renewable fuels 450 PPM IPCC stabilization scenario 70% below 2005 levels by 2050 80% Below 1990 Levels by 2050 MMT CO 2 -equivalent 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year 12
What might an ~80% GHG reduction by 2050 look like? One example pathway. do all of the following: Light Duty 100% electric vehicles in fleet (running on zero-ghg electricity) NO liquid fuels Heavy Duty Fuel economy equivalent to today s LDVs (20 mpg onroad) PLUS 20% reduction in VMT Rail and Pipelines Full electrification (running on zero- GHG electricity) Air 50% reduction in energy demand (combination of efficiency & VMT) Marine 66% reduction in energy demand (combination of efficiency and VMT) Nonroad 70% reduction in energy demand (combination of efficiency and VMT) Fuels 40 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol used across the sector in gas and diesel engines MMT 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 Year 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 Aviation Pipeline Rail Non-road Marine MD/HD highway Light Duty 13
Today s Electric Energy Feedstocks 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Southeast States Percentage of (Wattage) Capacity by Feedstock 344 GW 30 GW 17 GW 1088 GW 116 GW Indiana Wisconsin National Northeast States California 69 GW Nameplate Capacity Other Sources Wind Other Bio Wood Hydro Nuclear Other Gases Natural Gas Petroleum Coal 14
Source-to-Sink Comparison: Today s Fossil Sources FUEL Vehicle Type & Vehicle Cost Crude Oil Coal Electric Gasoline Gasoline Gasoline Coal-fired Electric (today) Compact Sedan convention powertrain ~$18k Compact Sedan Advanced Gas-Hybrid ~$21-24k National Electric National Electric Mix (today) Compact Sedan with PHEV - Extended Range EV type $30k+ "Never Plugged In" "All Electric" fuelled. Resource Used, Energy Consumed for 300 miles of driving Fuel Cost $26 $3/gal, 8.8 gal $19 $3/gal, 6.2 gal $20 $3/gal, 6.7 gal $11 12c/kWh, <30 mi / trip $11 12c/kWh, <30 mi / trip Feedstock Consumed 0.24-.29 barrel oil 0.16-.21 barrel oil 0.17-.22 barrel oil 35-41 kg coal ~~~~~ Feedstock-Energy Used ~1.4 GJ ~0.9 GJ ~1.0 GJ ~1.0GJ ~~~~~ Feedstock-Energy Rate ~1.3 kw-hr/mi ~0.8 kw-hr/mi ~0.9 kw-hr/mi ~0.9 kw-hr/mi ~0.9 kw-hr/mi Vehicle Energy Used (measured at tank or plug) 1.1 kw-h/mi 0.7 kw-h/mi 0.8 kw-h/mi ~0.3 kw-h/mi ~0.3 kw-h/mi 34 mi/gal 49 mi/gal 45 mi/gal GHG Emissions for 300 miles of driving Carbon Emitted - LifeCycle ~106 kg CO 2 in Air ~75 kg CO 2 in Air ~81 kg CO 2 in Air ~130 kg CO 2 in Air ~93 kg CO 2 in Air CO2 in Air gm/mile 320-360 gmco 2 /mi 230-270 gmco 2 /mi 240-275 gmco 2 /mi 390-435** gmco 2 /mi 280-320** gmco 2 /mi "gal-ge" is a gallon of fuel with gasoline energy equivalency * All vehicles are comparable size and utility (1,400 kg - Toyota Prius or GM "Delta" platform) ** Assumes best "GHG case" operating cycle for PHEVs - not more than 30 miles per charge (i.e., used like a short range BEV) 15
Typical Daily Vehicle Mileage Comparison of the number of vehicles within each daily mileage bin with their fraction of total VMT 80% Number of Vehicles Fraction of Daily Total VMT 70% 60% 50% 40% 86% of vehicles travel 40 miles or fewer in a given day and account for about 47% of overall VMT. 30% 20% 10% 0% DailyVMT>200 DailyVMT 180<X<200 DailyVMT 160<X<180 DailyVMT 140<X<160 DailyVMT 120<X<140 DailyVMT 100<X<120 DailyVMT 80<X<100 DailyVMT 60<X<80 DailyVMT 40<X<60 DailyVMT 20<X<40 DailyVMT 0<=X<20 Source: DOT National Housing and Transportation Survey, 2001 Mileage Bin 16
WHAT IF?... we tried to reach 2050 GHG thru vehicle efficiency improvements only Total GHG Emissions Light Duty Vehicles 2500 CO2 Emissions (MMT) 2000 1500 1000 500 Current Scenario Baseline Scenario 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 This is a what if??? Year -How much would LD vehicle energy\fuel efficiency need to improve if LD vehicles met their fair share contribution to the fleet reduction of an 83% reduction in GHG by 2050, if vehicle efficiency alone was used (no fuels carbon reduction) 17
WHAT IF?... we tried to reach 2050 GHG thru vehicle efficiency improvements only Vehicle Efficiency only as the Pathway to the 2050 Waxman-Markey Goal Real World Fuel Economy (mpg) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Tailpipe CO 2 Emissions (gm/mile) Real World (mpg) CAFÉ under 2007 EISA 2050 thru vehicle efficiency only CAFE\Lab (mpg) What if??? Tailpipe (CO2 gm/mi) Fleet Ave. (CO2 gm/mi) MY 2009 20 26 444 444 2020 28 35 317 2035 183 229 49 2049.86 183 229 49 57 18
Source-to-Sink Comparison: 2020-2030 Options FUEL Vehicle Type & Vehicle Cost Fuel Cost Coal-fired Electric Plant (future w/ CCS) Compact Sedan** PHEV-ER EV $30+k Electric Plant (nuclear) Compact Sedan** PHEV-ER EV $30+k Cellulose>Synthetic\ Alcohol Fuel Compact Sedan Advanced IC Engine + Hybrid $21-24k Resource Used, Energy Consumed for 300 miles of driving $13 15.6c/kWh, 10x30 mi trips $11 12c/kWh, 10x30 mi trips $?? $?/gal, 6.1 gal Cellulose>Synthetic\ Alcohol Fuel (w/ CCS) Compact Sedan Advanced IC Engine + Hybrid $21-24k?? $?/gal, 6.1 gal Feedstock Consumed 39-44 kg coal 70-78 kg biomass 78-87 kg biomass Feedstock-Energy Used ~1.1GJ ~410 kw-hr ~450 kw-hr Feedstock-Energy Used ~1.02kW-hr/mi ~1.37 kw-h/mi ~1.50 kw-h/mi Vehicle Energy Used (measured at tank or plug) Best Fossil (Future) Nuclear Biomass Gasification 0.28 kw-h/mi 0.28 kw-h/mi 0.70 kw-h/mi 0.70 kw-h/mi 120 mi/gal-gas equivalent 120 mi/gal-gas equivalent 50 mi/gal 50 mi/gal GHG Emissions for 300 miles of driving Biomass Gasification w/ccs Carbon Emitted - ~21 kg CO 2 in Air ~2 kg CO 2 in Air ~7 kg CO 2 in Air ~(-30) kg CO 2 in Air in AIR & GND ~82 kg CO 2 in Gnd 0 kg CO 2 in Gnd ~0 kg CO 2 in Gnd ~32 kg CO 2 in Gnd Net CO2 in Air gm/mile 60-85** gmco 2 /mi 5-10** gmghg/mi 20-30 gmco 2 /mi -(70-90) gmco 2 /mi 19
Transportation Fuel s Carbon Content (Not including fuel conversion efficiency of ICE\FCV\BEV or Source-to-Tank Carbon emissions) Fuel Energy per Unit of Carbon 16 Gaseous Fuels Difficult for Transportation "Energy Carriers" Wide Range, dependent upon Feedstock Energy Content per Carbon Unit (kw-hr/kg Carbon) 15 14 13 12 Gasoline Diesel Fuel Natural Gas Propane Hydrogen Electricity DME Methanol Ethanol 20
Focusing IC Engine Research on Low-GHG liquid Future Fuels Alcohols & DME (Dimethyl Ether) fuels for engines: Enable high compression ratio engines, for high efficiency Tolerant of high boost and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) for Unthrottled operation, for high efficiency Advanced combustion phasing, for best efficiency Lower NOx and PM formation Alcohols: high EGR rates/high CR reduces enrichment requirements for TWCs Methanol (M85) and Ethanol (E85) are well suited to low cost Spark-Ignition, Port Fuel Injection, with conventional exhaust aftertreatment DME fits within the traditional heavy-duty Direct Fuel Injection architecture 21
The Future Vehicle Fleet A policy response to Climate Change will truly be a paradigm shift in how fleet efficiency issues are dealt with in the Transportation Sector The degree of vehicle efficiency improvements to meet GHG goals will need to be fleet transformative, not incremental Decarbonizing the fuel should be a major thrust of the technical development, but vehicle efficiency will also be paramount if we are to retain the affordability of personal mobility During the next 20+ years we can be hopeful - but not depend - on finding a single breakthrough technology that enables the transportation fleet to reach these GHG levels; advancements in many areas (fuels, batteries, fuel cells, hybrids, vehicles, engines, clean electricity) will be required Further development of low carbon fuel & their engines, particularly for the heavy-duty and non-road fleet (where electrification will be even more challenged) is an opportunity for all engine researchers 22