The State of Food Insecurity in the World Strengthening the enabling environment to improve food security and nutrition Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations European Commission Brussels, 16th October 2014 http://www.fao.org/publications/sofi
The 2014 Report Organized in three sections: 1. Undernourishment trends around the world. 2. Beyond undernourishment: monitoring the different dimensions of food security through the suite of indicators. 3. The enabling environment to improve food security and nutrition: lessons from analysis of 7 country experiences.
The Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU) Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU): % of people consuming an amount of dietary energy insufficient to cover requirements for an active and healthy life. Probabilistic model referred to a representative consumer Not based on a headcount as the poverty rate: individual energy requirements are virtually unobservable Main limitations: complex to calculate; narrow concept of inadequate food access (calories); not measuring short-term crises; only available at national level Mistakenly described as an indicator of food supply only: combining information on food availability and food access at the macro and micro level
Undernourishment around the world 805 million people suffering from chronic hunger in 2012 14, down 100 million in the last decade, 209 million lower than in 1990 92. The vast majority, 791 million, live in developing countries. 1100 1050 1000 1014,5 994,1 World Developing regions 950 900 929,9 946,2 908,7 930,8 850 800 824,9 840,5 805,3 790,7 750 700 1990-92 2000-02 2005-07 2009-11 2012-14
Progress towards international hunger targets The MDG 1c hunger target is within reach with additional efforts. The WFS goal will not be achieved. 63 countries have already reached MDG 1c 25 countries have achieved the more stringent WFS goal.
30% 28,0% Undernourishment and Underweight: similar trends Developing regions 25% 20% 23,4% 15% 10% 16,6% 13,5% 14,0% 11,7% 5% 0% 1990-92 1993-95 1996-98 1999-01 2002-04 2005-07 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14 prevalence of undernourishment prevalence of underweight
Progress in most regions, but uneven
Changing distribution of world hunger 1990 92 Western Asia, 0.8% Latin America and the Caribbean, 6.8% South-Eastern Asia, 13.6% North Africa, 0.6% Caucasus and Central Asia, 0.9% Southern Asia, 28.8% Oceania, 0.1% Developed regions, 2.0% Western Asia, 2.3% Latin America and the Caribbean, 4.6% North Africa, 1.6% South-Eastern Asia, 7.9% 2012 14 Caucasus and Central Asia, 0.7% Oceania, 0.2% Developed regions, 1.8% Eastern Asia, 29.1% Sub-Saharan Africa, 17.3% Eastern Asia, 20.0% Sub-Saharan Africa, 26.6% Southern Asia, 34.3% Total = 1015 million Total = 805 million
Section One: key findings About 805 million people chronically undernourished in 2012 14. Decline of 209 million since 1990 92, and of 100 million since 2000. Majority of hungry (791 million) live in developing countries. Between 1990-92 and 2012 14, the PoU has fallen from 23.4% to 13.5% in developing countries. The MDG 1c hunger target is within reach, but large differences across developing regions remain. East Asia, South-East Asia, Latin America & the Caribbean have already achieved the MDG hunger target. LA and South-East Asia have also reached the WFS goal. Insufficient progress in sub-saharan Africa, South Asia and Oceania West Asia is moving away from the target. In total, 63 countries have already reached MDG 1c, 25 the WFS goal.
A suite of food security indicators
A suite of food security indicators Availability: Indicators of quantity (adequacy of dietary energy supply & average value of food production), but also quality and diversity of food (share of calories derived from cereals, roots and tubers; average protein supply; average supply of animal-source proteins). Access: indicators of physical access (railway and road density); economic access (food price index, GDP per capita, food expenditure share of the poor) Stability: indicators of exposure to food security risks (cereal dependency ratio, area under irrigation, and value of staple food imports as % of total merchandise exports); incidence of shocks (food price volatility, fluctuations in domestic food supply, & political instability). Utilization: ability to utilize food (access to water & sanitation); outcomes of poor food utilization (wasting, stunting and underweight of children); micronutrient deficiencies (prevalence of anaemia & vitamin A deficiency among children; prevalence of iodine deficiency & anaemia in pregnant women)
Section Two: key findings by FS dimension Availability has improved considerably over the past two decades, BUT insufficient availability in poorer regions, notably sub-saharan Africa and parts of South Asia. Access to food has improved quickly in countries showing rapid economic progress and poverty reduction, notably East & South-East Asia. Access has also improved in parts of South Asia & Latin America, where adequate safety nets and social protection were provided. Utilization, despite progress over past two decades, remains the greatest challenge, with stunting and micronutrient deficiencies remaining stubbornly high. Stability has shown little progress due to growing political instability and price instability, esp. in regions heavily reliant on international food markets, such as Near East, North Africa and Caribbean.
Section Two: key findings by region Sub-Saharan Africa: low availability, despite improved supplies of energy and protein; poor access to food with sluggish income growth, high poverty rates and insufficient infrastructure; poor food utilization. South Asia: main challenge is poor food utilization as a result of poor hygienic conditions and inadequate sanitation facilities. Access also still a problem due to large income disparities. East and South-East Asia: rapid progress on all four food security dimensions over the past two decades. North Africa: high levels of access and availability, reflecting rises in income levels and extensive policy interventions; persistent, albeit contained, problems of food utilization; exposure to instability. Latin America: high food availability; improved food access, especially in countries with targeted social protection measures.
Section Three: strengthening the enabling environment 7 country reviews to help Governments design more effective interventions Very different contexts and environments Country reviews guided by 4 dimensions needed for enabling environment: Policies, programmes and legal frameworks Financial and human resources Institutional coordination mechanisms Evidence-based decision-making
Bolivia Inclusive processes and institutions for previously marginalized indigenous peoples Strong focus on pro-poor security policies resulted in rapid hunger decreases
Brazil Achieved international goals including MDG and WFS hunger goals Progress accelerated through Zero Hunger Programme comprehensive approach for food security
Haiti Taken steps to improve policy formulation and implementation to address multiple challenges Twin-track approach to addressing food insecurity
Indonesia Institutionalization of food as human right through legislation Strengthening of local government capacities and decentralization improved programmes effectiveness
Madagascar Country now rebuilding its capacities after political crisis Ambitious new sector programme (PSAEP) and National Action Plan for Nutrition 2012-2015
Malawi Hunger and food inadequacy declining since 2005 due to maize production growth Food security and nutrition still challenges and constitute key priorities in national development plan
Yemen Transition government taking steps to improve food security and nutrition after political unrest Ambitious targets set in the National Food Security Strategy for both food security and nutrition
Section Three: Key findings Sustained political commitment at highest level Continuity of food security policies Effective participation of key stakeholders in policy processes Adopting comprehensive strategies to increase food security Improved coordination & government leadership Enhancing government capacities & capabilities for designing & implementing programmes & policies
Thank you For more information The State of Food Insecurity in the World The international reference on global hunger issues www.fao.org/publications/sofi
Monitoring food security Food security is a multidimensional phenomenon: multiple indicators required Lack of a global standard: over 200 indicators proposed Trade-off between best operational definition of food insecurity and feasibility of the data collection Need to improve our ability to monitor food insecurity at the global and national level Post 2015 development agenda: Food security and nutrition as a separate Goal with 5 targets ( Zero Hunger challenge) Trade-off between Global and National monitoring
The PoU methodology Probabilistic approach: The PoU is based on a comparison of a probability distribution of habitual daily Dietary Energy Consumption of a randomly selected person in the population with the Minimum Dietary Energy Requirement f(x) PoU f x dx x<mder PoU MDER
Key Parameters of the Distribution Mean: mainly from Food Balance Sheets, now reconciliation with HH surveys Coefficient of variation measure of inequality: from HH surveys; model-based when HH surveys not available; Skewness: from HH surveys; Threshold: Minimum Dietary Energy Requirement (MDER), or sex and age range weighted average requirement minimum acceptable Body Mass Index -- 5th percentile for adults, median BMI for <10 years-- and Physical Activity Level =1.55 Continuous effort to improve the methodology; Major revision in 2012 Methodological refinements in 2014 Parameters updated regularly; Improve basic agricultural statistics through a renewed initiative of statistical capacity development
Other indicators are also problematic Children underweight/stunted Multiple causes, not only food insecurity (e.g. diseases and infections) South East Asia paradox (higher than in SS Africa) Information only on one segment of the population Old data Insufficient country coverage IFPRI Global Hunger Index Plagued by the same problems of the individual indicators on which it is based Aggregates different indicators with no clear rationale for the aggregation function Not possible to measure progress Ranking of countries very unstable
FAO response Revise its methodology for estimating the PoU Develop a suite of indicators to monitor the 4 dimensions of food security (availability, access, utilization, stability) => CFS mandate The Voices of the Hungry project: a new metric system for monitoring food access, one of the dimensions of food security for which indicators are largely missing
The Voices of the Hungry Project (VoH) Establish a global standard (Food Insecurity Experience Scale - FIES) for measuring the severity of food insecurity that allows comparisons over time, across countries and across social groups: A questionnaire of 8 simple yes/no questions to reveal food-related behaviors and experiences associated with increasing difficulties in accessing food Provides a direct assessment of the adequacy of food access, a key dimension of food security for which proper indicators are missing A new metric for both households and individuals Provide estimates the prevalence of moderate and severe food insecurity in 150+ countries in 2014 and 2015, and to set a benchmark against which to monitor progress at national level. Make available the linguistic and cultural adaptation of the questionnaire to any interested user in more than 200 languages. Promote adoption of the FIES in national food security monitoring systems, by including the module in national household surveys
VoH project: Main benefits People s access to adequate food is measured directly Enables assessment of the depth of food insecurity (mild, moderate, or severe) A sound methodology (Item-Response Theory) allows assessment of reliability and precision of the measures Allows assessment of food insecurity experiences at the individual level, thus proper analysis of gender related food insecurity disparities Rapid and low cost enables timely global monitoring Complements other existing measures of food security Ideal measure for the Post-2015 Development agenda (food access target)