Historical and Projected Future Climatic Trends in the Great Lakes Region Jeffrey A. Andresen Dept. of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences Michigan State University Grand River Flooding Grand Rapids, MI 21 April, 2013 Photo: MichiganRadio.org
Outline Historical Trends Climatic Variability/Extreme Events Future Projections
Historical Climatic Trends: Instrumental Record
Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies 1880-2017
Changes in the Length of the Frost Free Season 10 Great Lakes Region (32 F threshold) Great Lakes Region Frost-Free Season (days from normal) 5 0-5 -10 1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995 Year Length Spring Fall Source: K. Kunkel, Midwest. Reg. Clim. Center
Impacts of Climatic Variability Past history suggests that society may be able to cope/adapt with steady climatic changes, but possibly not with changes in variability (e.g. changes in extremes, storminess)
Some Recent Extreme Weather Events in Michigan Heat wave, March 2012 Major drought, summer 2012 Third wettest year on record in MI 2013 Coldest winter in more than 100 years, 2013/2014 Top ten coldest winter 2014/2015 Record warm December 2015 Wettest year on record in MI 2017
24-Hour Precipitation Totals (inches) for 2-100 Year Recurrence Intervals Lansing, MI Recurrence Interval 2 Year 10 Year 50 Year 100 Year TP 40 (1938-1957) 2.35 3.70 4.45 4.80 Huff and Angel (1948-1991) NOAA Atlas 14 Vol. 8 (POR, 2013) 2.35 3.25 4.45 5.25 2.43 3.42 4.80 5.50
Growing Season Drought Severity Michigan, 1895-2017 (Source: NOAA/NCEI, 2018)
Projecting the Future: Global Climate Models (GCMs)
(NCICS, 2017)
Projected Temperature Changes Hayhoe et al (2010)
Projected Preciptation-Related Changes 2041-2070 vs. 1971-2000 (Pryor and Scavia, 2013) While possibly heavier, precipitation becomes more extreme and erratic
Projected Great Lakes Regional Changes Average Temperature Total Precipitation Heavy Storm Precipitation Number of Hot Days (T > 90F) Frost-Free Season 3.5 6.0 o F 5-15 % 10-60% 0-90 Days 30-70 Days 2041-2070 2041-2070 2041-2070 2041-2070 2070-2099
Summary Overall, mean average temperatures in Michigan rose approximately 1.0ºF during the past century. Warming of about 2.0ºF has occurred between 1980 and the present. Milder winter temperatures have led to less ice cover on the Great Lakes and the seasonal spring warm-up is occurring earlier than in the past. Annual precipitation rates increased from the 1930 s through the present, due both to more wet days and more extreme events. Most recent GCM simulations of the Great Lakes region suggest a warmer and wetter climate in the distant future, with much of the additional precipitation coming during the cold season months. Projections of future climate change in Michigan suggest a mix of beneficial and adverse impacts. A changing climate leads to many potential challenges for dependent human and natural systems, especially with respect to climate variability. Given the projected rate of climate change, adaptive planning strategies should be dynamic in nature
Questions? Questions?
Resiliency Planning in Michigan
Climate Implications for Michigan Communities Extreme heat events Flooding Infectious disease Air quality issues Reductions in crop yield Negative impacts on trees Increased wildfire risk Waterborne diseases
the planning lens
Communities in Michigan Planning for Resiliency and Climate Change
EDUCATION AND COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT
A Effective Resiliency Planning Process is: Community-focused Cross-Sector Systems Focused Interjurisdictional Inclusive
Bring in Local and State Experts
Tips for Talking About Climate Change
DATA AND MAPPING
Community Vulnerability Assessments Vulnerability= Sensitivity + Exposure
Who is Affected by Climatic Events? Source: Michigan Department of Health and Human Services
Step 1: Mapping Sensitivity % Population 65 or older % Households living alone % Non-white population % Living in poverty % with less than H.S. education
Step 2: Mapping Exposure Urban Heat Island Effect Heat Island Effect
Step 2: Mapping Exposure Tree Canopy Impervious Surfaces
Vulnerability to Extreme Heat Sensitivity Exposure Vulnerability
How Communities are Addressing Heat Vulnerability Increase tree canopy coverage within the City to 30-40%: Public tree planting program Require more trees with new developments Explore a local tree ordinance Reduce impervious surfaces Address heat vulnerable populations by: More cooling centers in targeted areas Neighborhood improvement grants in targeted areas Requiring or incentivize AC in all new rental units
Flooding Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity
How Communities are Addressing Flooding Vulnerability Increase low impact development: Install rain gardens, green roofs, pervious pavement Adopt a stormwater utility fee based on % impervious with allocation of credits similar to Ann Arbor program Protect drinking water supplies with local septic inspection ordinance, wellhead protection ordinance Preserve and restore wetlands by: Adopting a wetlands ordinance for protection of small urban wetlands with high flood control potential Regulate development in flood-prone areas by: Exploring a program to acquire properties in high hazard areas for open space uses Require back-up generators and/or power supply at key community facilities
Mapping is a very powerful tool
Natural Disaster Responsible Parties & Feedback Loops Local Government Natural Hazard Mitigation Emergency Manager / Responders Emergency Response Residents & Local Government Long Term Recovery Past events inform future mitigation strategies
The Waffle House Index
DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS
Atlas 14 Precipitation Frequency Tables Changing our engineering and design standards to align with observed and expected precipitation changes
Socioeconomics of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Developed by Headwaters Economics & Great Lakes Adaptation Assessment for Cities Link: https://headwatersec onomics.org/dataviz/ great-lakes-atlas/
Cities Impacts & Adaptation Tool (CIAT) Developed by University of Michigan Climate Center Link: http://grahammaps.miserver.it.umic h.edu/ciat/
Download the handbook at www.resilientmichigan.org/handbook.asp
Claire Karner ckarner@bria2.com
APPROACHES TO RESILIENCE IN MICHIGAN: A NEW WAY FORWARD Planning Michigan Conference 2018 Annual Conference Saturday, September 22, 2018
ABOUT DELTA INSTITUTE Who we are: Multidisciplinary team of 21 staff, including urban planners, civil engineers, economists, scientists, architects, LEED APs, GIS experts. What we do: We collaborate with communities to solve complex environmental challenges throughout the Midwest. How we do it: Work with public and private partners to identify opportunities for marketbased environmental solutions Design, test, and share on-the-ground solutions that yield social, environmental, and economic benefits for communities.
SEBEWAING, MICHIGAN Population: 1,610 On the coast of Saginaw Bay Challenges: Increase intensity and duration of rainfall Ice jams in Sebewaing River Increase in straight line winds, lightning strikes, flooding Aging utilities
ICE JAMS ON THE SEBEWAING RIVER Source: Mlive.com
RESILIENCY FOCUS ON UTILITIES
WHAT S IN SEBEWAING S PLAN? ENGAGE STAKEHOLDERS & Identify Assets IDENTIFY COMMUNITY ASSETS e. g. outdoor recreation, utilities Understand Disturbances EVALUATE DISTURBANCES e.g. floods, demand for recreation Assess Vulnerabilities Resilience Strategies ADOPT PLAN & IMPLEMENT ASSESS VULNERABILITY e.g. sensitivity, capacity to adapt
Vulnerability Levels of Assets Property value, roads, buildings All utility infrastructure Backup power engines Substations Lift Stations Resilience Strategies and Actions (Planning, Operational, and Capital Improvement) Prevent development in sensitive areas and improve access; Rewrite Master Plan. Amend and implement zoning ordinances. Upgrade roads as needed for emergency access Implement corrective measures to existing infrastructure to prevent damage from severe weather and flooding using both vegetative and built measures. Utilize green infrastructure Ensure local storm water ordinances include resilience provisions Retrofit/weatherize buildings Provide generators at public facilities Preplan for debris management Improve reliability and redundancy of power engines. Create capital improvement program to purchase necessary equipment to provide both primary and backup power for the Village and industries. Implement corrective measures to existing infrastructure to prevent damage from severe weather and flooding using both vegetative and built measures. Retrofit/weatherize buildings Continue to provide up to date water system reliability studies according to the Michigan Safe Water Drinking Act, PA 99 of 1976, as amended.
POLICY In developing proposals to build, modify, or expand infrastructure for municipal utilities, the Village of Sebewaing and Sebewaing Light and Water Department shall: Seek to site new critical public infrastructure outside of the 100-year flood zone. Require that 100-year flood zone boundaries are mapped and used for siting purposes. Submit a plan for formal review through the public engagement process including cost, location, and timeline for installation of the proposed infrastructure.
HOW IT ALL FITS TOGETHER SEBEWAING, MICHIGAN Resilience Plan (2017) Purpose: To guide the Village in the development and adoption of climate adaptation and resilience strategies. Implemented Recommendation: Public Utility Siting Policy; CHP engines Master Plan (2018) Purpose: To reflect the ideas and vision of the community and to guide future development. Recommendations from the Resilience Plan are incorporated as Action Items in the Master Plan. CONTINUE IMPLEMENTATION (future) Update Zoning (future) Purpose: To regulate the use of land. Contains rules to regulate the vision described in the Master Plan. The zoning ordinance was reviewed for where resilience efforts could be incorporated.
RESOURCES Agency resources FEMA maps Department of Environmental Quality National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Community members knowledge Local leadership Tools Green Infrastructure Toolkit Templates, plan sets, cross sections, costs, and material specifications Resilience Plans for Muskegon, Michigan and Sebewaing, Michigan Examples of resilience assessments and analysis of disturbances
THANK YOU! Contact: Emily Rhodes erhodes@delta-institute.org 312-586-1516 www.delta-institute.org Check out our tools: www.delta-institute.org/tools Connect with us: @deltagreatlakes