PERCEPTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE, ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND THEIR DETERMINANTS THE CASE OF BORANA PASTORALISTS, SOUTH ETHIOPIA A Thesis Presented By Meseret Kassahun Majour advisor: Co-advisor; Teshale WeldeAmanuel(Ph.D) Tefera Mengistu(Ph.D) June, 2013
Presentation outline Conclusions & Recommendations Result & Discussions Research Methodology i
The Pastoralist population in Africa is: over 268 million Introduction occupies about 43% of the total area contributes up to 44% of GDP Pastoralist population in Ethiopia: close to 65% of the land is where pastoralism is in one way or another a dominant mode of life; 3
1.2. Problem of Statement Yet, this group of population is: facing threat from global climate change, most powerless to influence policy making More over, their experiences of: current climate change, Introduction Continued its impacts on their livelihoods, adaptive strategies, and determinants of the strategies used are less understood 4
1.2. Problem of Statement Introduction Continued Without such understanding it is difficult, to design policy and strategies that address their issues The objective of this study was to generate empirical data on pastoral communities experiences with climate change including: perception, impact on their livelihoods, adaptation mechanism, and determinants of their adaptive strategies 5
Research Design and Methods 200 households were interviewed using structured questionnaire survey 12 focus group discussions were conducted Key informants interview were conducted from both 4 Government Nongovernment organizations Elders
Descriptive statistics Method of Data Analysis Qualitative data from key informant interviews and focus group discussions were Transcribed, categorized and interpreted Econometric Analysis Multinomial logit model was applied 7
Results & Discussions Perception to Climate Change 97% - perceives the existence of climate change 94% - witnessed existence of climate change related effect They enlisted various climate change related indicators observed in the area 7
Perception to Climate Change Trend of rainfall is decreased while others are increased SN Indicator Trend %respondents 1 Temperature Increased 97 2 Rainfall Decreased 97.5 3 Rainfall seasonal Fluctuation 54 4 Frequency of drought Increased 98 5 Climate related livestock disease Increased 82 6 Climate related crop disease Increased 86.5 7
100 100 90 Perception to Climate Change Continued Trends of bush, crop, bare land cover & Trends of grass, settlement forest cover are increased & wildlife are decreased percent of change percent of change 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 Bush cover Cropcover Grass cover Bare Forets land settlement wild life 10 10 0 0 Geda Geda year year 12
Patterns of Local Climate from Meteorological Record 1000 900 800 Temperature ( o C) 700 600 Climate diagram of the study site based on metro logical...(1962-2008) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Short and long rainy season average annual rainfall (1957-2011) Temperature Rainfall 180 150 120 90 60 Ranfall (mm) Annual RF Annual rain fall in (mm) 500 400 300 200 20 10 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Months 30 Long rainy season) Short rainy season 100 0 1957 1959 1961 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Commu nity peak year for drought 13 Years
Impacts of Climate Change Drought is the most climate change impact than others Impact of climate change Frequency Percent Drought 179 89.5 Livestock disease 133 66.5 Shortage of pasture and water 115 57.5 Crop disease 108 54 Livestock death 107 53.5 Human disease 99 49.5 Crop failure 66 33 14 Flood 21 10.5
Adaptation to Climate Change 93 % of the respondents are already practicing one or another form of climate change adaptation measures. Categorized under three major strategies 1. Livestock based climate change adaptation strategies 2. Crop based climate change adaptation strategies 3. Externally driven climate change adaptation strategies 13
Livestock based Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Livestockrearingas their major livelihood system since time immemorial. However the conventional livestock production is no more viable livestock sales 25% not adapting 2% Shifting to camel and goat rearing 23% purchasing feed 20% Storing hay 30% 15
Crop Based Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Crop production is a growing economic activity in Borana next to livestock production Crop diversification 33% not adapt 31% Change planting date 20% Improved crop variety 16% 15
Externally driven Climate Change Adaptation strategy A lot of continuous supports from Go and NGO working in the study area to capacitate the pastoralist and agro pastoralist community to adopt various strategies Joinig coprative or creadit union 14% Destocking 18% Livestock insurance 5% Not adapting 12% Owning of house in town for business 3% Soil and water coservatio n 48% 16
Explanatory Variable Determinates of Household s Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Livestock based climate change adaptation strategy Crop based climate change adaptation strategy Externally driven climate change adaptation strategy Positive relation Negative relation Positive relation Negative relation Positive relation Negative relation Age Education Family size Livestock holding Traditional climate information source Non Traditional climate information Access to credit Frequency of extension contact Cultural norms believes of the society Amount social capital Water source access Farm land size Distance from market District 17
Conclusions and Recommendations The study reveal that in the absence of recording weather stations: Pastoralists well narrate their experiences of climate change that very much correlates with records This knowledge can be used to understand trends at local level not only for understanding patter of change but also for policy formulation for adaptation and mitigation 23
Conclusions and Recommendations Cont d They are employing combination of strategies to adapt The choices between traditional and externally introduced strategies are affected by a number of variables, and understand the relationship between these variables and adoption of adaptation strategy is essential in policy formulation In other words adaptation strategies can only be effective if they are designed considering variables that make them adopted 23
COMMUNICATION Meseret Kassahun E-mail: messykasa@yahoo.com messykasa@gmail.com Skype: messikasa1 Cell phone: 2403748855 21 Climat Eval 2nd International Cofrience On Evaluating Climate Change And Development 12/9/2014