Economics and GHG emissions of Irish cattle systems Paul Crosson, E.G. O Riordan and M. McGee Livestock Systems Research Department, Animal & Grassland Research and Innovation Centre, Teagasc, Grange, Ireland. 64 th Annual Meeting of the EAAP Nantes, France, 29 August 2013
Outline Irish agriculture overview Structure of farms in Ireland Irish beef production systems GHG emissions from Irish beef systems Future perspectives for Irish cattle systems
Overview Irish agriculture overview Structure of farms in Ireland Irish beef production systems GHG emissions from Irish beef systems Future perspectives for Irish cattle systems
Irish economy 200 16.0 Irish GDP (2000=100) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Irish unemployment rate (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 - Irish GDP Irish Unemployment rate Source: Irish Dept Agr, Fisheries and the Marine; Central Stats Office
Agriculture s role in the Irish economy Agriculture accounts for ~30% of net foreign earnings from the Irish manufacturing economy. Source: Irish Dept Agr, Fisheries and the Marine; Central Stats Office
Export-led Agri-food sector 1200 % of gross output from agriculture Self sufficiency (%) 1000 800 600 400 200 Cereals, 5 Sheep, 4 Other, 15 Beef & Cattle, 30 0 Pigs, 8 All Meats Beef & Veal Pigmeat Sheepmeat Poultrymeat Milk, 39 Other Meat Drinking Milk Cream Butter Cheese Source: Irish Dept Agr, Fisheries and the Marine; Central Stats Office
Land use Total land area 7 m ha (1/8 of France) 4.6 m ha for agriculture and 0.75 m ha for forestry Forestry, 14% Other, 2% Cereal, 15% Grassland, 69% Source: Irish Dept Agr, Fisheries and the Marine; Central Stats Office
Overview Irish agriculture overview Structure of farms in Ireland Irish beef production systems GHG emissions from Irish beef systems Future perspectives for Irish cattle systems
Distribution of farms and cattle System Dairying Mixed Livestock Cattle Rearing Cattle Other Sheep Tillage % farming population 14.7 5.6 25.4 32.4 14.4 7.1 % of total cattle 35.0 24.3 11.7 14.7 6.4 8.0 % of dairy cows 71.0 29.0 - - - - % of suckler cows 2.7 10.9 40.0 18.3 16.0 12.1 Source: Hennessy et al., 2012
Farm size & income System 140% 120% Dairying Mixed Livestock Cattle Rearing Cattle Other Sheep Tillage Area farmed (ha) 100% 54.8 47.6 31.1 33.7 41.3 64.8 DP as % of FFI Of which rented 80% (ha) 11.9 10.7 3.5 4.1 5.1 18.3 60% Stocking rate 40% (LU/ha) 1.84 1.51 0.97 1.20 1.10 0.44 20% Gross margin ( ) 0% 114,056 65,884 21,433 28,626 30,274 75,816 Dairying Cattle Rearing Cattle Other Mainly Sheep Mainly Tillage Mixed Livestock All Systems FFI ( ) 68,570 34,902 10,453 14,573 16,805 35,296 Source: Hennessy et al., 2012
Demographics % of total farmers 30% 70% 25% 60% 20% 50% 40% 15% 30% 10% 20% 5% 10% 0% Distribution of farmers ages 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2007 2010 2000 2001 2002 Off farm job 2003 2004 2005 2006 No off farm job 2007 2008 2009 < 35 35-44 45-54 55-64 > 65 2010 Source: Hennessy et al., 2012
Overview Irish agriculture overview Structure of farms in Ireland Irish beef production systems GHG emissions from Irish beef systems Future perspectives for Irish cattle systems
Production systems Pasture based production systems Spring-calving (March-April) Continental crossbred cow & latematuring sire of a different breed Cost of feed production ( /t DM) 250 200 150 100 50 0 Grazed grass Grass silage Maize silage (without plastic) Whole crop w inter w heat Spring barley grain First calving at ~30 months of age Steers finished at ~28 months of age Heifers finished at ~24 months of age
Breeds Suckler beef cows LM CH SI BB EM (HE&AA) Other 31% 23% 12% 21% 5% 8% Sires used on beef cows
Breeds Dairy cow breeds HO-FR MO RB JE Other 94% 3% 1% 1% 1% Sires used on dairy cows
Numbers of breeding & other cattle 6.80 1.20 6.60 6.40 6.20 6.00 5.80 5.60 5.40 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Cattle numbers (m head) 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 Cow numbers (m head) 0.90 Total Cattle Dairy Cows Other Cows
Cattle disposals 2,000 Slaughtered ('000 head) 1,600 1,200 800 400-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Live Exports Meat Export Premises Home Market
Export destinations
Price trends 150.0 Relative price (base 2000 = 100) 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Prime Cattle Cows Store Cattle Sheep Milk
Profitability Challenge 2.4 2.2 Teagasc eprofit Monitor 2010 1000 800 Stocking rate (LU/ha) 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 600 400 200 0-200 Gross margin ( /ha) 1-400 Bottom 5% Bottom 10% Bottom 33% Average Top 33% Top 10% Top 5% Stocking rate Gross margin
Overview Irish agriculture overview Structure of farms in Ireland Irish beef production systems GHG emissions from Irish beef systems Future perspectives for Irish cattle systems
GHG emissions GHG emissions in steady decline since (JRC, 1998; 2011) 9% lower than 1990 But accounted for 30.4% of national emissions in 2010; EU average ~9% Of developed countries, only New Zealand has a higher proportion
GHG emissions 16 GHG emissions (kg CO2e/kg live weight) 12 8 4 0 SRW SRS SRF DYS DYF STF Production system Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emissions from Irish beef production systems. SRW = Suckler to weanling; SRS = Suckler to store/finish; SRF = Suckler to finish; DYS = dairy calf to store/finish; DYF = dairy calf to finish; STF = store to finish.
Green targets: GHG emissions Agricultural GHG emissions (Mt CO2eq) 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 Historic data FH Scenario 2005 level Decline in animal numbers Natural restructuring of national herd 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Maximum reduction potential using BAT -10% target -20% target -30% target Source: http://www.teagasc.ie/publications/2011/61/61_climatebillsubmission.pdf
Overview Irish agriculture overview Structure of farms in Ireland Irish beef production systems GHG emissions from Irish beef systems Future perspectives for Irish cattle systems
Export-led Agri-food sector Increase beef output value by 20% (40%) Increase milk production by 50% Increase sheepmeat output value by 20% Source: Irish Dept Agr, Fisheries and the Marine
Implementation of CAP 1.2 800 1.0 Flat rate 600 impact on more intensive farmers 0.8 Solution 400 partial convergence. Payments <90% 0.6 0.4 of national 200 average increase by 1/3 of difference. 0.2 0 0.0 0 to 20 50 to 100 150 to 200 245 to 272 Total SPS '000 300 to 350 400 to 450 500 to 550 600 to 650 700 to 750 1400 2.0 1200 1.8 1.6 1000 1.4 Stocking rate (LU/ha) Total m LU/ha
Projected cattle numbers System 2010 2015 2020 Dairy cows 1,022 1,031 1,293 Dairy heifers 195 233 271 Beef cows 1,134 1,086 1,032 Beef heifers 154 145 143 Total cattle 6,232 5,574 5,844
Sectoral roadmap Sectoral Average Research Target Current (2011) 2018 Calving interval 400 390 367 Calves/cow/year 0.81 0.87 0.95 Grass (% of total DM fed) 49 51 61 Herbage utilised (kg DM/ha) 4,760 5,997 10,009 Liveweight output (kg/ha) 457 580 1,183 Carcass output (kg/ha) 250 317 666 Costs per kg liveweight ( /kg) 1.77 1.52 1.27 Gross output ( /ha) 699 887 1,903 Gross margin ( /ha) 262 377 1,038 Net margin ( /ha) -110 5 610
Summary Agriculture playing an increasingly important role in the depressed Irish economy Industry targets (Food Harvest) significant increase in output smart, green, growth. Challenge to meet GHG emissions targets Dairy industry projected to expand substantially with corresponding increases in dairy beef production. Sectoral targets have been set to improve productivity and profitability
Go raibh maith agaibh Paul Crosson Animal & Grassland Research and Innovation Centre, Teagasc, Grange, Email: paul.crosson@teagasc.ie Phone: +353 46 9061100 Fax: +353 46 9061154