Wheat Market Outlook - Spring 217 Industry Outlook Conference Denver, Colorado April 2, 217 DANIEL O BRIEN EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST U.S. Dollar Index (Trade Weighted) 1973 early April 217
U.S. Dollar Index vs World Grain $ s 198 Early April 217 U.S. Dollar Index US Dollar Index (Trade Weighted) Corn Wheat Soybeans 15 $18 $16 125 $14 1 $12 $1 75 $8 5 $6 $4 25 $2 $ World Grain Prices (USD$ per bu)
Wheat Markets World Wheat Market Prospects: Large Supplies A Buyer s Market (w. Quality concerns) Record World Supplies & Usage Forecast in 216/17 o 4 th consecutive record high World wheat crop 217 Wheat Production & Supply Prospects o Lower acres in U.S., but few/no emerging Non-U.S. threats yet World wheat exports to remain a buyer s market unless or until World supplies & stocks tighten o Alternative All World vs World Less China perspectives???
U.S. Wheat Quality & Exports Moderate U.S. Exports Quality Issues, Large Stocks, & Low Prices U.S. wheat exports have been slowed by large competitive World supplies of fair quality Wheat, but tight high protein U.S. HRW Wheat 216 : 11.5% protein / 6.5 lb/bu test weight Vs 211-215 year avg: 12.8% protein / 6.3 lb/bu test weight U.S. HRS Wheat 216 : 14.1% protein / 61.6 lb/bu test weight*** Vs 211-215 year avg: 14.2% protein / 61.4 lb/bu test weight U.S. SRW Wheat 216 : 9.4% protein / 58.6 lb/bu test weight Vs 211-215 year avg: 1.% protein / 58.5 lb/bu test weight CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat Monthly Chart: February 28 March 217 + 4/19/217 close MAY 217 $4.16 ¾ 4/19/217 $6.1 $4.59 $3.67 $4.17 $4 33
HRW Wheat Cash & CME KS HRW Futures $ s Hutchinson, KS Local Elevators April 19, 217 $7 $6 $.6 375 /mo $.8 /mo $.8 833 /mo $.5 917 /mo $Price / bu $5 $4 $3 $4.17 $4.3 $4.46 $3.41 $3.59 $3.5 $3.2 $3.23 $3.23 $4.72 $4.9 $2 $1 $ Futures Low Cash/FC$ High Cash/FC$ Marketing Loan Kansas Wheat Seasonal Cash $ Index Monthly Prices: 1999/ 215/16 + Current MY 216/17
Wheat Prices & 217 Costs KSU Hutchinson, KS Local Elevators April 19, 217 $Price / bu $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 All Costs Direct Costs $5.44 $4.37 $3.59 $4.3 56 bu/ac Yield Non-irrigated $3.5 $ June 217 July 217 Futures High FC$ Direct Cost /bu All Costs /bu SRW Wheat Cash & Chicago Wheat Futures $ s Toledo, OH Local Elevators April 19, 217 $Price / bu $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ $.7 75 /mo $4.19 $4.35 $4.49 $4.9 $4.17 $3.88 $3.89 $.7 /mo $.7 333 /mo $2.66 $2.66 $.5 833 /mo $4.71 $4.88 Futures Low Cash/FC$ High Cash/FC$ Marketing Loan
SWW Wheat Cash & Chicago Futures $ s Wasco, OR Local Elevators April 19, 217 $6 $Price / bu $5 $4 $3 $4.76 $4.76 $4.35 $4.35 $4.19 $4.35 $4.49 $3.55 $3.55 $4.71 $4.88 $2 $1 $ Futures Low Cash/FC$ High Cash/FC$ Marketing Loan
HRS Wheat Cash & Minneapolis Futures $ s Minot, ND Local Elevators April 19, 217 $Price / bu $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ $5.37 $5.45 $5.52 $5.61 $5.7 $4.62 $4.67 $4.57 $.4 /mo $.3 375 /mo $.2 83 /mo $2.65 $2.65 $.3 8 /mo Futures Low Cash/FC$ High Cash/FC$ Marketing Loan
Durum Wheat Cash & Minneapolis Futures $ s Williston, ND Local Elevators April 19, 217 $Price / bu $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ $5.8 $.4 /mo $.3 375 /mo $5.37 $5.45 $5.52 $5.61 $5.7 $4.75 $2.98 $2.98 $.2 833 /mo $.3 83 /mo Futures Low Cash/FC$ High Cash/FC$ Marketing Loan U.S. Wheat Seeded Acreage
U.S. Wheat Acreage: 2-217 est U.S. Wheat Yields: 2-217 est Record High
U.S. Wheat Production & Supplies MY 24/5 Next Crop MY 217/18 Highest since 3.945 bb in 1987/88 U.S. Wheat Use by Category & Stocks MY 24/5 Next Crop MY 217/18 *!!!*
U.S. Wheat Export Shipments MY 212/13 thru MY 216/17 1,2 1, 212/13 Million Bushels 8 6 4 213/14 214/15 215/16 2 1 4 7 1 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 216/17 Weeks of Marketing Year (June 1 st to May 31 st ) U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks & % Stocks/Use MY 25/6 Next Crop MY 217/18 % End Stocks-to-Use 5 4 3 2 1 27 571 13 36 49 976 36 863 24 59 5. 976 51.8 1,159 42.3 927 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Million Bushels Marketing Year
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks & Prices MY 26/7 Next Crop MY 217/18 USDA U.S. Wheat Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use MY 1973/74 Next Crop MY 217/18
World Wheat Production Regions
World Wheat Supply, Use & End Stocks MY 27/8 Current MY 216/17 World Wheat Producers: MY 213/14 216/17 2 Million Metric Tons 15 1 5 145 129 87 63 73 32 35 26 27 14 39 136 MY 213/14 MY 214/15 MY 215/16 MY216/17
World Wheat Exporters - Since MY 213/14 4 35 ** Note Weaker Currencies! ** 3 Million Metric Tons 25 2 15 1 5 28 27 2 25 1 28 7 17 6 13 MY 213/14 MY 214/15 MY 215/16 MY 216/17 Euro & Russia Exchange Rates EU: Wheat Exports/Soy Imports Russia: Wheat Exports Russian Ruble Vs All Currencies Europe EURO vs USD$ USD$ stronger vs Euro$ & Ruble since mid 214, but???? pattern with Ruble of late.
World Wheat Importers: MY 213/14 MY 216/17 3 Million Metric Tons 2 1 28 24 26 22 17 14 9 8 28 North Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Sub Shrn Africa Eastern Asia South America North America FSU-12 Others MY 213/14 MY 214/15 MY 215/16 MY 216/17
World Wheat Ending Stocks & % Stx/Use % Ending Stocks-to-Use 4 3 2 1 32 33 177 183 29 157 36 35 21 23 26 23 21 136 156 128 31 23 34. 34.1 31 28 26 242 252 218 195 178 6 5 4 3 2 1 Million Metric Tons Marketing Year U.S. Wheat Price ($) vs World %Stx/Use MY 1973/74 Current MY 216/17
U.S. Wheat Price USD$ adj vs World Less China %Stx/Use MY 1973/74 Current MY 216/17 U.S. Grain Production & ALL Grain Stocks Trends for the 1969/7 216/17 Marketing Years Billion Bushels 3 25 2 15 1 5 198 s Farm Crisis & Freedom to Farm 14.5 15.5 17.5 Ethanol & Soy Exports 19. 2.6 22.2 12/1 ALL STOCKS of U.S. Cn-GS-Sb-Wht 12/1 OFF-FARM STOCKS U.S. Cn-GS-SB-Wht U.S. Total Cn-GS-Sb-Wht Production
U.S. Grain Production & OFF-FARM Stocks Trends for the 1969/7 216/17 Marketing Years Billion Bushels 3 25 2 15 1 5 3.9 198 s Farm Crisis & Freedom to Farm 14. 14.5 15. 15.5 17.5 4.9 6.1 19. 5. 5.4 6.1 6.5 Ethanol & Soy Exports 2.6 22.2 7.3 8.1 12/1 OFF-FARM STKS of U.S. Cn-GS-SB-Wht U.S. Total Cn-GS-Sb-Wht Production OFF-FARM STORAGE 7-Year Average U.S. Grain Production & ALL Grain Stocks Trends Since MY 26/7 for Corn, Sorghum, Wheat & Soybeans Billion Bushels 25 22.2 2.6 18.3 19. 19.7 2.2 2 18. 18.3 17.6 15.8 16.3 17.7 15 15.3 15.5 16. 14.1 14.1 14.5 13.2 13.8 14.3 1 11.8 5.6 6.1 5.9 6. 6.5 6.1 5.9 6.5 6.7 7.3 8.1 5 12/1 ALL STOCKS of U.S. Cn-GS-Sb-Wht 12/1 OFF-FARM STKS of U.S. Cn-GS-SB-Wht U.S. Cn-GS-Sb-Wht Production
Kansas Production & Stocks of Major Crops Trends for the 1969/7 216/17 Marketing Years 2, Ethanol & Soy Exports Million Bushels 1,6 1,2 8 4 198 s Farm Crisis & Freedom to Farm Dec. 1 ALL STOCKS OF KS 4 Major Crops Dec. 1 KS OFF-FARM 4 Crop Stocks KS Corn-Milo-Soybeans-Wheat Crops Kansas Grain Production & OFF-FARM Stocks Trends Since MY 26/7 Million Bushels 1,6 1,2 8 4 88 665 521 1,87 1,181 86 832 619 645 1,361 1,248 948 965 727 774 1,124 1,153 939 927 783 882 825 75 624 596 672 698 1,332 1,66 862 1,627 1,227 982 12/1 ALL STOCKS OF KS Cn-GS-Sb-Wht 12/1 OFF-FARM Kansas Grain Stocks Kansas Cn-GS-Sb-Wht Production
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