Energy applications offer growth potential for tin Technical Session: Specialty minerals and metals for energy storage Tuesday 8 March 2016 Peter Kettle, Jeremy Pearce & Tom Mulqueen - ITRI Ltd
Presentation agenda Overview of tin applications: growth trends and the key markets today Current and future role in energy storage, generation and conservation o Lead-acid and advanced batteries o Solar power & thermoelectric materials o Hydrogen and clean fuels New sources for new applications o Supply problems for current producers o Known and unknown future resources o Investment urgently needed
World tin consumption from 1900 000tpy 350 300 250 Post-war reconstruction to oil crisis 200 Cans and cars 150 100 China, electronics & lead-free solders 50 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
Estimated world refined tin use, 2014 7.3% 5.2% 7.0% 2.0% 43.5% Solders - electronic Solders - industrial Chemicals Tinplate 14.7% Lead-Acid Batteries Brass & Bronze 15.5% 4.8% Float glass Other
Global tin use by industry sector Consumer electronics Transport Packaging Construction Industrial equipment Other Solder - electronic Solder - industrial Tinplate Chemicals Brass & Bronze Float Glass Others 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
R&D of tin energy uses is booming 8,000 tin R&D publications per year Energy uses the major theme
Broad potential in tin energy technologies Storage Lead-acid Lithium ion Magnesium ion Sodium ion Supercapacitors Aluminium Air Fuel Cells Generation Solar cells Solar storage Thermoelectric Hydrogen Methane to hydrogen Water splitting Clean Fuel Biodiesel catalysts Fuel catalysts Calcium tin grids, tin sulphate electrolyte Tin nanoneedles, Silicon + tin anodes, tin electrolyte Antimony or bismuth tin alloy anodes Tin sulphide / carbon anodes Manganese + iron tin oxide anodes Tin alloy addition, tin stannate electrolyte Tin phosphate membrane, molten tin, tin platinum catalyst, tinned copper mesh Copper Zinc Tin Sulphide (CZTS), Tin perovskite Molten Tin Tin Selenide, Magnesium Stannide Molten tin Tin oxide, tin sulphide photocatalysts Iron Tin oxide Tin antimony alloys
Performance continues to improve across multiple battery types Source: Atsushi Tsutsumi, Tokyo University
Tin use in lead acid batteries High end VRLA Antimony free Tin solder Calcium-Tin Tin sulphate Tin additions improve performance
High-end lead acid battery uses favour tin Start-Stop vehicles Regenerative braking Only tin batteries have high performance
Now the fourth largest tin use Tin in China Lead-Acid Batteries Type Tin Use per KVhr Million units Total Tin Use Starter 52.1g 100 5,200 Motive 59g 90 5,310 Industrial 35.5g 37.5 1,330 Jian, Z. (2015), Outlook for Tin Application in Lead-Acid Batteries, 2015 ITRI China International Tin Forum, pp. 140 156. 11,840 tpa Global consumption ~26,000 tpa and rising
Lead acid battery markets are booming
Tin use in lithium-ion batteries Possible Tin Use
Main new target is zero emissions vehicles US Pat 9142830, Sep 2015 US Pat 9142830, Sep 2015 Other targets for lithium-ion include home energy storage
Specific Capacity (mah/g) Silicon in anodes has higher charge capacity 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Graphite Tin Germanium Silicon Leading materials in development for addition to lithium-ion battery anodes Silicon appears to have taken the lead
But tin R&D continues to increase Number of published R&D Papers relating to use in lithium ion batteries 600 500 400 300 200 Tin Silicon 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Tin may be used to stabilise silicon
Markets for post-lithium $14 billion by 2026 Source: Kang et al, J. Mater. Chem. A, 2015, 3, 17899
Tin is a leading anode material for post lithium-ion battery technologies Magnesium-ion : Antimony Tin alloy Bismuth Tin alloy US Pat 8647770, Dec 2013 Sodium-ion : Tin sulphide / Carbon Source: Kang et al, J. Mater. Chem. A, 2015, 3, 17899
Solar cell markets grow as price falls Source: PV Demand: James, GTM Research, March 2015 PV Module Price: Four Peaks Tech., Solar Cell Central website
Solar start-ups launching tin technology now New cheap tin perovskite technology takes off
Thermo-electrics tin selenide 50% of US heat energy from fuels is wasted Tin the most efficient to date
Liquid tin can produce hydrogen from methane Carlo Rubbia Nobel Laureate More than 50% cheaper hydrogen production
New tin fuel cell products in development Tin pyrophosphate membrane Tin state-of-the-art for cheaper fuel cells
ITRI promoting new fuel catalyst R&D Tin fuel catalysts reduce fuel and emissions
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 China and Indonesia dominate supply 350 Shares in world mine output 1980-2014 300 250 200 150 Myanmar China Indonesia Malaysia 100 Bolivia 50 Peru 0 ROW Data: ITRI
Changing China raw material sources Sources of China tin raw materials, 000t 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Crude tin imports for re-refining Secondary refined tin production Concentrates imports Unreported mine production Reported mine production* * Official mine production data has ceased to be published since 2013. Data: ITRI, CRU,CNIA
Indonesian exports fall further 12-month moving total of tonnage of metal checked prior to export 110,000 105,000 100,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 New export regulations from 1 July / 30 August 2013, November 2014, August 2015
Floor price of marginal production China Indonesia Other Asia Rest of World 2015 Cash production costs net of byproduct revenues, US$/t contained tin (based on mid-december 2015 exchange rates and by-product prices) Soft floor ~ US $13,850/t
Changes in 2015 mine production Total World Myanmar Bolivia Brazil Australia Africa Peru China Indonesia -30,000-20,000-10,000 0 10,000 20,000
Mapping known tin resources Global tin resources (inc. reserves) Total CRIRSCO Compliant 0.05 (Mt) 0.5 (Mt) 5 (Mt) Data: ITRI Global Tin Production * Resources located by country. Specific deposit sites not represented.
220 Mt 11.2 Mt 4.8 Mt 2.1 Mt Tin metal (Mt) Plenty of supply at the right price 1,000 Comparing global tin resource & reserve estimates ~720 yrs *ITRI estimates include resources and reserves non-compliant with CRIRSCO 100 Years of 2014 tin mine production (306 Ktpa) 10 ~37 yrs ~16 yrs ~7 yrs 1 Extractable Global Resource ITRI Resource (2016) USGS Reserve (2015) ITRI Reserve (2016) Data: USGS, UNEP, ITRI
Visible total tin stocks 250 000 tonnes 200 150 US Strategic Stockpile Producer & consumer LME 100 50 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Forecast weeks supply and prices 14.0 Weeks supply, price in US$/tonne Forecast 40,000 12.0 Weeks' supply Prices 35,000 10.0 30,000 8.0 6.0 4.0 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 2.0 5,000 0.0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Data: ITRI
Summary points Current tin applications broadly stable in terms of technology change and substitution risks and opportunities Potential for commercial development in energy storage and generation over 3 30 years Tin supply from traditional producing areas is declining and exploration and development close to stalled Global tin resources are more than adequate to ensure long-term supply Medium-term price recovery likely to re-stimulate investment Energy-related R&D showing strong and growing interest in tin