BP Energy Outlook 218 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist
Alternative scenarios Primary energy consumption by fuel Carbon emissions Billion toe Billion tonnes CO2 2 24 4 3 1 Renewables 3 1 216 ET ICE ban Less RE gas push switch FT EFT Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 2 2 2 1 Evolving transition (ET) Internal combustion engine ban (ICE ban) 1 Less gas switching Renewables push (RE push) Faster transition (FT) Even faster transition (EFT) 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24
Alternative scenarios Primary energy consumption by fuel Carbon emissions Billion toe Billion tonnes CO2 2 24 4 3 1 Renewables 3 1 216 ET ICE ban Less RE gas push switch FT EFT Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 3 2 2 1 Evolving transition (ET) Internal combustion engine ban (ICE ban) 1 Less gas switching Renewables push (RE push) Faster transition (FT) Even faster transition (EFT) 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24
Billion toe 2 Transport 1 1 Three windows on the energy transition Industry Non-combusted Buildings 2 1 1 Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD 2 1 1 Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 4
Economic backdrop % per annum GDP growth by region and factor 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % LNG Russian pipeline Conventional 199-216 216-24 Productivity Population World China India Africa OECD Other
Billion toe 2 Transport 1 1 Three windows on the energy transition Industry Non-combusted Buildings 2 1 1 Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD 2 1 1 Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 6
Energy demand by sector Billion toe 2 Primary energy consumption by end use sector % per annum % Final energy consumption growth: non-combusted versus industry 1 Transport Industry Non-combusted Buildings 4% 3% Non-combusted Industry 1 2% 1% 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 % 197-198 198-199 199-2 2-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 7
Energy demand in buildings Final energy consumption in buildings by fuel type Billion toe 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.. Oil Gas Coal Electricity. 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 8
Energy demand in buildings and transport sector Final energy consumption in buildings by fuel type Billion toe 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.. Oil Gas Coal Electricity Contributions to transport energy consumption growth Billion toe 4 3 2 1 Income per head Population growth Efficiency gains. 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 216 24 9
Regional energy demand Primary energy consumption by region Billion toe 2 1 1 Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD Primary energy growth and regional contributions % per annum 3.% 2.% 2.% 1.% 1.%.%.% 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 -.% 2-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 1
216 24 216 24 216 24 216 24 216 24 Differences in the fuel mix across regions Billion toe Primary energy demand by fuel and region Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables 4 3 2 1 US EU China India Middle East 11
Billion toe 2 Transport 1 1 Three windows on the energy transition Industry Non-combusted Buildings 2 1 1 Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD 2 1 1 Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 12
Global energy by fuel Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy Billion toe 2 1 1 Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil % 4% 3% Oil Coal Hydro Gas Nuclear Renewables 2% 1% 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 % 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 13
Diversified fuel mix Shares of primary energy 1% 8% 6% Oil Gas Coal Non-fossil 4% 2% % 19 192 194 196 198 2 22 24 14
Billion toe 2 Transport 1 1 Three windows on the energy transition Industry Non-combusted Buildings 2 1 1 Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD 2 1 1 Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 1
Five key questions What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution? When is global oil demand likely to stop growing? Just how fast will renewable energy grow? How resilient is the outlook for natural gas? Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough? 16
Five key questions What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution? When is global oil demand likely to stop growing? Just how fast will renewable energy grow? How resilient is the outlook for natural gas? Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough? 17
Penetration of electric cars in 24
Penetration of electric cars in 24 Share of global car parc ~1% Share of Vkm ~3%
Electric cars, shared mobility and autonomy Trillion km Car kilometres by fuel type New mobility share of Vkm 4 Electricity 4% Private - autonomous 3 3 Gas Liquids 3% Shared - autonomous Shared - human driver 2 2 2% 1 1 1% 216 22 22 23 23 24 % 216 22 22 23 23 24 2
Liquid fuel demand from passenger cars Mb/d 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 18.7 Changes in liquids demand from cars: 216-24 216 Growth in demand for travel 2. 22.6 18.2 Tightening in vehicle efficiency standards 2. Shared mobility EVs Switch to EVs Other gains in fuel efficiency 18.6 24 21
Global ban on internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars Share Electric car sales as a share of total car sales Share Share of total passenger Vkm powered by electricity 1% 1% Evolving transition Evolving transition 8% ICE ban 8% ICE ban 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% % 216 22 22 23 23 24 % 216 22 23 24 22
Impact of ICE ban Mb/d 24 2 16 Passenger cars liquids demand Evolving transition ICE ban Carbon emissions from energy Billion tonnes CO 2 4 3 3 2 12 8 4 2 1 1 Evolving transition Even faster transition 216 Evolving transition ICE ban 216 24 199 2 21 22 23 24 23
Impact of ICE ban Passenger cars liquids demand Carbon emissions from energy Mb/d Billion tonnes CO 2 24 2 16 Evolving transition ICE ban 4 3 3 2 12 8 4 2 1 1 Evolving transition ICE ban Even faster transition 216 Evolving transition ICE ban 216 24 199 2 21 22 23 24 24
Five key questions What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution? When is global oil demand likely to stop growing? Just how fast will renewable energy grow? How resilient is the outlook for natural gas? Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough? 2
Demand for oil and other liquid fuels Mb/d Liquids demand Mb/d, average annual growth Liquids demand growth 14 12 1 Cars Non-road Industry Power Trucks Non-combusted Buildings 2. 2. 1. Power Industry Transport Buildings Non-combusted Total 8 6 1. 4. 2. 2 21 22 23 24 -. 2-21 21-21 21-22 22-22 22-23 23-23 23-24 26
Demand for oil and other liquid fuels Liquids demand Mb/d 12 1 8 6 4 2 Evolving transition ICE ban Faster transition Even faster transition 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 27
Demand for oil and other liquid fuels Liquids demand Mb/d 12 1 8 6 Evolving transition 4 ICE ban Faster transition 2 Even faster transition Supply with no investment (3% decline rate) 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 28
US tight oil: alternative scenarios Mb/d US tight oil production Number of US oil rigs (in the four main producing regions*) 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Evolving transition 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 12 1 8 6 4 2 Evolving transition 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 29 *Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara
US tight oil: alternative scenarios Mb/d US tight oil production Number of US oil rigs (in the four main producing regions*) 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Evolving transition Early peak 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 12 1 8 6 4 2 Evolving transition Early peak 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 3 *Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara
US tight oil: alternative scenarios Mb/d US tight oil production Number of US oil rigs (in the four main producing regions*) 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Greater resource Evolving transition Early peak 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 12 1 8 6 4 2 Greater resource Evolving transition Early peak 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 31 *Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara
Five key questions What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution? When is global oil demand likely to stop growing? Just how fast will renewable energy grow? How resilient is the outlook for natural gas? Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough? 32
Rapid growth in renewable energy Growth of renewable power TWh, average annual growth Pace of power market penetration Largest gains in market share over 2 years, %pts 16 14 12 OECD China Other 2% 1% 1 8 6 1% Nuclear (1966-1991) Renewables (21-24) 4 % Gas (198-21) 2 2-216 216-23 23-24 % 33
Renewables push scenario 1% Renewables share of power growth 216-24 8% 6% 4% 2% % Evolving transition Renewables push 34
Renewables push scenario Renewables share of power growth 216-24 Change in carbon intensity of power 216-24 1% % 8% -2% 6% -4% 4% -6% 2% -8% % Evolving transition Renewables push -1% Evolving transition Renewables push Even faster transition 3
Five key questions What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution? When is global oil demand likely to stop growing? Just how fast will renewable energy grow? How resilient is the outlook for natural gas? Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough? 36
Growth in natural gas demand Gas consumption by region Gas consumption by sector Bcf/d Bcf/d 7 6 N America China Middle East Africa Europe India & Other Asia CIS Other 7 6 Transport Power Industry Buildings Non-combusted 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 216 24 216 24 37
Possible risks to the outlook for natural gas Billion toe 2. 1. Gas demand increase 216-24 Industry Transport Power Buildings Non-combusted 1. Switching. Other effects. Evolving transition Less gas switch 38
Possible risks to the outlook for natural gas Billion toe 2. 1. 1. Gas demand increase 216-24 Industry Transport Power Buildings Non-combusted Switching % per annum -1% % 1% 2% Evolving transition Less gas switch Renewables push Gas demand growth 216-24.. Evolving transition Less gas switch Other effects 39 Faster transition Even faster transition
Five key questions What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution? When is global oil demand likely to stop growing? Just how fast will renewable energy grow? How resilient is the outlook for natural gas? Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough? 4
Carbon emissions continue to rise in the ET scenario Carbon emissions Carbon emissions in 24: EFT versus ET scenario Billion tonnes CO 2 4 Billion tonnes CO 2 4 Energy intensity Fuel switching 3 3 2 1 Evolving transition Faster transition 2 1 Power Other sectors CCUS Even faster transition 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 Evolving transition Even faster transition 41
Impact of faster transition on global energy system Reductions in carbon emissions: EFT versus ET scenario Billion tonnes CO 2 in 24 2 4 6 8 1 12 Billion toe 2 Primary energy consumption under different scenarios 24 Power CCUS Industry & Buildings 1 1 Renew. Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Transport 216 ET FT EFT 42
Conclusion Some aspects of energy transition seem relatively likely: global energy demand continues to grow driven by increasing prosperity slower growth as we learn to do more with less increasing abundance and diversification of energy supplies renewable energy growing in importance oil and gas continue to play a central role in the global energy system Other aspects remain far more uncertain: impact of EVs and autonomy in reshaping transport sector role of natural gas and renewables in lower carbon transition how will we achieve a more decisive break from past to achieve sharp fall in carbon emissions? 43
BP Energy Outlook 218 edition