The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Somnath Sinha May 12, 216 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 215. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. 1
Key Energy Outlook Themes Energy is fundamental to standards of living. Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards. Economics and policies impact the fuel mix. Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24. Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 2 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Trends Continue to Evolve 125% Growth from 214 Level Percent GDP 1% 75% 5% 25% Demand Population % 214 24 Carbon Emissions 3 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Energy is fundamental to standards of living. 4
Children cannot study in the dark. Girls and women cannot learn or be productive when they spend hours a day collecting firewood. Businesses and economies cannot grow without power. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon United Nations Foundation 5
Energy Fuels Human Development U.N. Human Development Index 213 Index 1. Norway Germany United States.75 Brazil Bangladesh India China.5 Nigeria.25 Niger. 1 1 1 1 Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day) 6 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Developing nations lead in GDP growth and living standard improvements. 7
Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations 214 OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China Mexico Brazil Nigeria Egypt Turkey Iran Saudi Arabia India Thailand China Indonesia South Africa $72 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 8 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations 24 214 OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China 2.% per year 3.4% 3.5% 5.5% 5.% $72 Trillion (21$) ~$15 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 9 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Middle Class and Urbanization Increase Global Middle Class Billion People 5 Urbanization Percent 1 4 3 Rest of World Key Growth 75 OECD* Turkey China Indonesia 2 China 5 India 1 India 25 OECD* '14 '3 198 2 22 24 Source: The Brookings Institution *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries Source: United Nations 1 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Demand Growth From Developing Nations Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs 8 6 Rest of World Key Growth 4 India China 2 OECD* 2 22 24 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 11 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Economics and policies impact the fuel mix. 12
Every country finds itself at a different point in the development journey. Therefore, the pace and rhythm of their emissions reductions and investments in adaptation will vary. President Jim Yong Kim World Bank Group 13
CO 2 Policy Assumptions Vary by Region 24 CO 2 Proxy Cost < 1 $/ton ~ 2 $/ton ~ 35 $/ton ~ 8 $/ton 14 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
CO Energy 2 Emissions Mix Shifts Plateau to Lower-Carbon Fuels Global Energy Mix Percent Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes 1% Biomass 4 Renewables 75% Nuclear 3 Rest of World Gas Key Growth 5% 2 India Coal China 25% 1 Oil OECD* % 214 24 2 22 24 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 15 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24. 16
Transportation and Chemicals Drive Growth Liquids Demand by Sector MBDOE 75 25 4 5 1 25 Chemical Transportation Industrial Res/Comm Electricity Generation 17 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE 75 Rail 5 Marine Aviation Commercial Heavy Duty 25 Light Duty 2 22 24 18 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Fuel Economy Standards (28) Policy in Place Standards Policy Evolving 19 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Fuel Economy Standards (214) Policy in Place Standards Policy Evolving 2 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Vehicle Fleet By Type Million Cars 2 Internal Combustion Engine Electric 15 Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel Gasoline Lower Cost Convenience Improving Efficiency Natural Gas & LPG Hybrid Public Transport High Efficiency High Cost Range/Charging Limit Hydrogen Fuel Cell 1 5 '1 '15 '2 '25 '3 '35 '4 21 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Production By Region MBDOE 12 By Type MBDOE 4 8 Other NonOPEC Russia 3 1 4 25 North America 2 4 OPEC 1 2 22 24 OPEC Non-OPEC NGLs Tight Oil Deepwater Oil Sands Other Conventional Crude and Condensate 22 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE 3 Other Demand 2 Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil 1 Oil Sands Deepwater 1 2 3 4 North America Conventional Crude & Condensate 23 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE 45 45 45 Other 45 Natural Gas Liquids 45 45 45 Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater 3 3 3 Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand 3 3 3 3 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 1 2 3 4 North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 24 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. 25
Gas Demand Grows in All Sectors Gas Demand by Sector BCFD 25 4 2 25 15 1 1 5 Electricity Generation Industrial Res/Comm Transportation 26 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Demand Continues to Surge By Sector Thousand TWh Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh 4 1 214 3 Transportation 8 China 2 Res/Comm 6 4 Key Growth United States Europe OECD 1 Industrial 2 India 2 22 24 198 21 24 27 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Electricity Transitions Regional Generation Thousand TWh 12 12 12 12 12 4 1 25 Other Renewables 8 8 Wind & Solar 8 8 8 Nuclear 4 4 4 4 4 Gas Coal Oil OECD* China India Key Growth Rest of World 28 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Natural Gas Supply By Production Type BCFD 6 By Delivery Type BCFD 6 LNG 4 Unconventional 4 Pipeline 2 2 Conventional Net Local Production 2 22 24 2 22 24 29 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Gas Trade Balance by Region BCFD 18 15 Unconventional Production Conventional Production Demand 12 9 6 3 1 2 3 4 North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 3 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 31
The only reason I m optimistic about this problem is because of innovation. Bill Gates The Atlantic, Nov. 215 32
Technology Helps Us Do More With Less Global Average Energy Intensity Thousand BTUs per dollar GDP (21$) 15 214 1 5 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 33 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Technology Contributes to the Fuel Mix Global Mix of Fuels 1% 75% Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Unconventional Gas Gas 5% Deepwater, Oil Sands, Tight Oil Oil 25% Coal % Biomass 185 19 195 2 24 Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (18-196) 34 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Demand 24 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25.7% Average Growth / Yr. 214-24 2 214 1.6%.9% 15 -.2% 1 5.3% 2.9% 4.8% 1.3% Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo 35 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Managing Climate Risk U.S. CO 2 Abatement Costs Dollars per tonne 9 8 3 2 1-1 Improved Gasoline Vehicles Gas into Power Nuclear Hybrid Vehicles Carbon Capture and Sequestration Wind Solar Electric Cars 36 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
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