The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Todd Onderdonk FPA DFW Symposium May 216 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 215. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. 1
Key Energy Outlook Themes Energy is fundamental to standards of living. Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards. Economics and policies impact the fuel mix. Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24. Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 2 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Trends Continue to Evolve 125% Growth from 214 Level Percent GDP 1% 75% 5% 25% Demand Population % 214 24 Carbon Emissions 3 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations 214 OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China Mexico Brazil Nigeria Egypt Turkey Iran Saudi Arabia India Thailand China Indonesia South Africa $72 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 4 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations 24 214 OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China 2.% per year 3.4% 3.5% 5.5% 5.% $72 Trillion (21$) ~$15 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 5 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Developing Economies Dominate Growth Energy Demand by Region Quadrillion BTUs 75 Rest of World 5 Key Growth India 25 China OECD* 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 6 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
United States Energy Trends Indexed to 2 2.5 GDP 2. 1.5 Population 1. Demand Carbon Emissions.5. 2 22 24 7 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Economics and policies impact the fuel mix. 8
CO 2 Policy Assumptions Vary by Region 24 CO 2 Proxy Cost < 1 $/ton ~ 2 $/ton ~ 35 $/ton ~ 8 $/ton 9 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
CO Energy 2 Emissions Mix Shifts Plateau to Lower-Carbon Fuels Global Energy Mix Percent Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes 1% Biomass 4 Renewables 75% Nuclear 3 Rest of World Gas Key Growth 5% 2 India Coal China 25% 1 Oil OECD* % 214 24 2 22 24 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 1 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24. 11
Transportation and Chemicals Drive Growth Liquids Demand by Sector MBDOE 75 25 4 5 1 25 Chemical Transportation Industrial Res/Comm Electricity Generation 12 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE 75 Rail 5 Marine Aviation Commercial Heavy Duty 25 Light Duty 2 22 24 13 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Transportation Demand Shifts Toward Diesel Non OECD MBDOE 5 OECD MBDOE 5 Gas Other Jet Fuel Fuel Oil 25 Biodiesel Diesel 25 Ethanol Gasoline 2 22 24 2 22 24 14 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Fuel Economy Standards (214) Policy in Place Standards Policy Evolving 15 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Vehicle Fleet By Type Million Cars 2 Internal Combustion Engine Electric 15 Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel Gasoline Lower Cost Convenience Improving Efficiency Natural Gas & LPG Hybrid Public Transport High Efficiency High Cost Range/Charging Limit Hydrogen Fuel Cell 1 5 '1 '15 '2 '25 '3 '35 '4 16 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Fleet by Type Million Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon 18 Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell 75 16 14 Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel 6 12 1 Gasoline 45 Average Fleet 8 6 4 2 3 15 Europe U.S. 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 21 22 23 24 17 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Motorcycles Grow With Rising Incomes Global LDV and Motorcycle Fleet Million Penetration Per 1 People 2 6 4 LDVs 14 4 15 4 14 1 Motorcycles 2 Motorcycles 5 LDVs 2 22 24 Europe South Korea Brazil China Indonesia India 18 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Chemical Demand Chemical Demand by Region Quadrillion BTUs 75 Chemical Demand by Fuel Type Quadrillion BTUs 25 4 Rest of World 2 5 Key Growth India 15 1 25 25 China 1 OECD* 5 United States 2 22 24 Naphtha Gas Liquids Other Oil Gas Coal Elec/ Heat *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 19 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Supply 2
Liquids Production By Region MBDOE 12 By Type MBDOE 4 8 Other NonOPEC Russia 3 1 4 25 North America 2 4 OPEC 1 2 22 24 OPEC Non-OPEC NGLs Tight Oil Deepwater Oil Sands Other Conventional Crude and Condensate 21 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 Net Imports Net Exports Other Supply 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 1 2 3 4 North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 22 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. 23
Gas Demand Grows in All Sectors Gas Demand by Sector BCFD 25 4 2 25 15 1 1 5 Electricity Generation Industrial Res/Comm Transportation 24 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Grows in Developing Economies Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh 4 Per Capita Demand MWh per person 15 214 United States 3 Rest of World 1 2 1 Key Growth India China OECD* United States 2 22 24 5 198 21 24 China Europe Key Growth India *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 25 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Fuel for Electricity Transitions Electricity Delivered by Type Thousand TWh 4 3 Other Renewables Wind & Solar 2 Nuclear Gas 1 OECD ' '1 '2 '3 '4 Coal Oil 26 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
A Shift in Electricity Generation Change in Electricity Net Delivered 214-24 Thousand TWh Gas Net Wind/Solar Nuclear Other Renewables Coal OECD* China India Key Growth Rest of World Oil -2 2 4 6 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 27 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Supply 28
Natural Gas Supply By Production Type BCFD By Delivery Type BCFD 6 6 Rest of World Asia Pacific LNG 4 North America 4 Pipeline Unconventional 2 Conventional 2 Net Local Production 2 22 24 2 22 24 29 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Gas Trade Balance by Region BCFD 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 15 15 15 Net Imports Net Exports 15 Other Supply 15 15 15 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 3 4 North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 3 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 31
Technology Helps Us Do More With Less Global Average Energy Intensity Thousand BTUs per dollar GDP (21$) 15 214 1 5 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 32 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Technology Contributes to the Fuel Mix Global Mix of Fuels 1% 75% Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Unconventional Gas Gas 5% Deepwater, Oil Sands, Tight Oil Oil 25% Coal % Biomass 185 19 195 2 24 Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (18-196) 33 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Demand 24 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25.7% Average Growth / Yr. 214-24 2 214 1.6%.9% 15 -.2% 1 5.3% 2.9% 4.8% 1.3% Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo 34 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Demand 24 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25 2 Total Non OECD share increases from 6% to 7% 15 Non OECD 1 5 OECD Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo 35 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
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