The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Rob Gardner March 2014 This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development Motor Gasoline Distillate Naphtha 15 demand Jet Fuel Fuel Oil LPG Lubes sectors Asphalt Natural Gas Nuclear Residential 100 Commercial Lt. Transportation countries Bio mogas Biomass/Other Hvy. Transportation Coal Geothermal Aviation Rail Chemicals Solar Asphalt Wind Bio distillate Lubricants Trade 20 fuel Flows types Flaring Energy Industry Technology Electricity & Hydro Marine Agriculture Policy Market Heat Heavy Industry Power Generation
CO 2 Policies
Global Progress Drives Demand Population Billion GDP Trillion 2005$ Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2010 2040 0.8% Average Growth / Yr. 2010 2040 2.8% Average Growth / Yr. 2010 2040 1.0% Energy Saved ~500 Rest of World India China Key Growth OECD *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth
Key Growth Countries Leading Economic Growth 2010 to 2040 Percent Share 2040 Energy Demand QUADS 60+ Countries Turkey Egypt China ~40% India ~15% Other 25% Key Growth 20% Thailand South Africa Nigeria Mexico Iran 10 Countries Saudi Arabia Indonesia Brazil
United States Energy Trends
United States Energy Demand and Supply By Sector Quadrillion BTUs 100 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 100 80 Res/Comm Industrial 80 Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear 60 60 Coal 40 Electricity Generation 40 Gas 20 Transportation 20 Oil 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Electricity Generation Leads Growth Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 2040 2025 Electricity Demand 2010
Electricity Generation
Electricity Demand Global Electrical Demand by Sector Thousand TWh Global Electrical Demand by Fuel Thousand TWh Other Industry Gas Heavy Industry Coal Commercial Nuclear Wind & Solar Transportation Residential Oil Other Renewables
United States Electricity Demand Electricity Demand Thousand Terawatt Hour 6 5 4 Transportation Commercial Residential Other Industry Heavy Industry Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption Quadrillion BTUs 45 30 Other Renewables Wind & Solar Biomass Nuclear 3 2 15 Coal 1 Gas 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Oil 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
U.S. Changing Electricity Generation Fuel Mix Electricity Generation Quadrillion BTUs Wind & Solar Other Renewables Growth versus 2010 by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Generation CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons 2.5 2.0 Nuclear 1.5 Coal 1.0 Oil Gas 0.5 0.0 2010 2020 2030 2040
Industrial
Industrial Energy Demand By Region Quadrillion BTUs By Sector Fuel Percent Share 2010 Other Other Naphtha NGLs Rest of Non OECD India China Electricity Energy Industry Coal Chemicals Other Heavy Oil Industry OECD Gas 2040
Chemicals Demand Sees Significant Growth By Sector MBDOE Ethylene Production MTA Other Chemicals ROW Steam Cracking Fertilizer Asia Pacific North America
Transportation
Transportation Fuel Demand World MBDOE United States MBDOE Fuel Oil Natural Gas Other Jet Fuel Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline
U.S. Heavy Duty Demand and Natural Gas Heavy Duty Demand MBDOE HDV Gas Demand BCFD Gas LPG Buses Medium Trucks Diesel Heavy Trucks Gasoline
U.S. Natural Gas Vehicle Economics Light Duty Vehicles 5 yr. Cost of Ownership; $k Heavy Duty Vehicles 3 yr. Cost of Ownership; $k Fuel Cost Fuel Cost Vehicle Cost Vehicle Cost Long Haul Truck LNG Tanks
Gas Into Transportation 2040 by Region BCFD 2025 * Excludes Mexico and Turkey
Supply
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs 0.7% 2040 1.7% Average Growth / Yr. 2010 2040 2010 1.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.4% 5.9% 2.0%
Global Liquids Demand by Sector By Sector MBDOE By Region MBDOE Rest of World Transportation India China Key Growth Industrial OECD* Electricity Generation Res/Comm * Excludes Mexico and Turkey
Liquids Supply Supply by Type MBDOE 2040 Liquids Supply by Region MBDOE Biofuels Other Liquids NGLs Oil Sands Tight Oil Deepwater Conventional Crude & Condensate 2010
Highest Texas Production Since 1980 s Texas Field Production of Crude Oil KBD Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; 2013 through August
Global Natural Gas Demand by Sector By Sector BCFD By Region BCFD Electricity Generation Rest of World India China Industrial Key Growth Res/Comm OECD* Tran. * Excludes Mexico and Turkey
United States Natural Gas Demand Total Demand Quadrillion BTUs Gas by Sector BCFD Other Coal Gas Oil
Natural Gas Into Industry United States Total Industrial by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Gas by Industrial Sector BCFD Coal Electricity Biomass Chemicals Gas Heavy Industry Oil Energy Industry
Remaining Global Gas Resource Over 200 years coverage at current demand 6.7 4.0 1.6 4.8 North America Europe OECD Russia/ Caspian* 4.9 1000 TCF 3.6 Middle East Unconventional 3.0 Asia Pacific Conventional Latin America Africa Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD
U.S. Reserves Accelerate U.S. Proved Reserves Wet Natural Gas TCF Proved reserves of U.S. wet natural gas rose by 31.2 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to a new record high of 348.8 trillion cubic feet. U.S. EIA Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Growth in Unconventional Production Production by Type BCFD Production by Region BCFD Rest of World Asia Pacific Shale Coal Bed Methane North America Tight
Pennsylvania s 15x Increase Pennsylvania Natural Gas Production BCFD Source: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts Global Gas Demand BCFD Global Gas Supply BCFD LA Afr. ROW Rest of World Unconventional Other India China AP ME North America Unconventional Rest of World Conventional North America Conventional
Gas Demand Grows and Supply Diversifies North America BCFD Europe BCFD Asia Pacific BCFD Local Production Unconventional LNG Pipeline Conventional
Global LNG Supply and Demand LNG Demand MTA LNG Supply MTA Other Europe Atlantic Basin Middle East Asia Pacific Pacific Basin
Global LNG Supply & Demand Outlook MTA Future Projects Under Construction & FID Projects Existing LNG Projects
Natural Gas Trade Russia/Caspian North America Europe Middle East Asia Pacific Latin America BCFD Net Exports Net Imports Africa
Transition to Modern Energy / Technology US Energy Demand Percent Canals Personal Vehicles Passenger Flights Hybrid Vehicle Railways & Steamships Rail Freight Road Freight Deepwater & Arctic Coal Mining Electrification Air Conditioning Shale Gas & Oil Sands Wood & Coal Heating Oil Prod & Refining Natural Gas in Homes Wind Telegraph Telephone Nuclear Power Cell Phones & PCs Wood Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables Source: Energy Information Agency & ExxonMobil
Conclusions
Natural Gas Into Industry United States Total Industrial by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Gas by Industrial Sector BCFD Coal Electricity Biomass Chemicals Gas Heavy Industry Oil Energy Industry
Global Natural Gas Demand Total Demand Quadrillion BTUs Gas By Sector BCFD Other Coal Electricity Generation Gas Industrial Oil Res/Comm Transportation
Today s Vehicle Technology Choices US Estimated Driving Distance per Fill up 5 Year Cost & Savings 2013$k Full hybrid: 480 miles Diesel: 430 miles Gasoline: 360 miles E85: 260 miles CNG: 220 miles Electric: Up to 100 miles PHEV: Up to 40 miles + 400 miles
Costs Impact U.S. Heavy Duty Choices 3 Year Cost of Ownership $k 2012 5 Year Cost of Ownership $k 2012 Vehicle Cost Vehicle Cost Fuel Cost Fuel Cost Long Haul Truck Short Haul Truck LNG Tanks CNG Tanks