The Outlook for Energy a view to 23 David Reed November 21 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
Economic and Energy Evolution Global Demand By Fuel 7 6 4 3 2 Access to modern forms of energy... provides great benefits to development... - IEA... adoption of cleaner and more reliable forms of energy is... key to achieving many of the Millennium Development Goals. - United Nations Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil 1 Coal 18 18 19 19 2 Biomass ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil 2
Economic Progress Drives Demand Gross Domestic Product Trillion 2$ GDP 1 Global Energy Demand 8 12 6 Non OECD 9 2-23 energy savings through efficiency gains ~3 Quads 4 6 Non OECD 2 OECD 3 OECD 198 2 23 198 2 23 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 3
Power Generation Leads Growth 3 3 2 1.7% 23 2 1.3%.9% 2 167 1.3% Transportation Industrial Res/Comm PowerGen Growth Savings ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 4
Southeast Asia Energy Demand By Sector By Region 4 Res/Comm 4 Rest of Southeast Asia Philippines 3 Industrial 3 Singapore Vietnam 2 2 Malaysia Thailand 1 Power Generation 1 Transportation 198 2 23 Indonesia 198 2 23 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook
Transportation Demand Grows Steadily Demand MBDOE 7 6 Rail 4 3 2 1 Marine Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty Commercial Personal 198 2 23 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 6
Personal Transportation Demand Flattens Demand MBDOE Personal Vehicle Demand Changes MBDOE 7 3 Distance per Vehicle 6 Rail 3 Marine 2 Fleet Mandated 4 3 2 1 Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty Commercial Personal 2 1 Fuel Economy Other 198 2 23 2 23 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 7
Costs Impact U.S. Vehicle Choices -Year Cost of Ownership $k 4 21 Fuel Cost 23 3 2 1 Vehicle Cost* Conv Full Hybrid CNG Plug-in Hybrid Elec Conv Full Hybrid CNG Plug-in Hybrid Elec ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 8 *Excludes Maintenance and Insurance
Commercial Transport Drives Growth North America MBDOE Europe MBDOE Asia Pacific MBDOE 2 2 2 Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty 1 1 1 Light Duty 198 2 23 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 198 2 23 9 198 2 23
Economic Choices for U.S. Power Baseload, Startup 22 21 cents/kwh 2 $/ton CO 2 PV Thermal 1 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal-CCS Gas-CCS Geo- Thermal ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 1 Solar
Economic Choices for U.S. Power Baseload, Startup 22 21 cents/kwh 2 $3/ton CO 2 PV Thermal 1 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal-CCS Gas-CCS Geo- Thermal ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 11 Solar
Economic Choices for U.S. Power Baseload, Startup 22 21 cents/kwh 2 $6/ton CO 2 PV Thermal 1 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal-CCS Gas-CCS Geo- Thermal ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 12 Solar
Power Generation Mix Evolves Global Capacity Utilized GW 8 Wind By Generation k TWh 3 7 6 4 3 Nuclear 3 2 2 Gas Coal Solar 2 1 ' '3 ' '3 ' '3 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 13 1 Nuclear Wind & Solar Other Renewables Oil 198 2 23
Renewables Gain Share United States Percent of TWhr 3 Europe Percent of TWhr 3 Asia Pacific Percent of TWhr 3 3 3 3 2 2 Solar Geothermal Biomass/Other Wind Hydro 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 ' '1 ' '2 '2 '3 ' '1 ' '2 '2 '3 ' '1 ' '2 '2 '3 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook *Biomass includes Municipal Solid Waste 14
Regional Needs Drive Fuels for Power North America 14 Europe 14 Asia Pacific 14 12 12 12 1 8 1 8 1 8 Renewables Nuclear 6 4 6 4 6 4 Coal 2 2 2 198 2 23 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 198 2 23 Gas Oil 198 2 23
Southeast Asia Energy Demand & Supply Total By Fuel Total By Sector Power Generation by Fuel 4 3 Renewables Biomass Nuclear 4 3 Res/Comm 12 9 Renewables Biomass Nuclear Coal Industrial 2 Gas 2 6 Coal Power Generation 1 1 3 Oil Gas 198 2 23 Transportation 198 2 23 Oil 198 2 23 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 16
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve 2 2.7% World Average Growth/Yr. to 3 1.2% 2.% 23.7% 1 2.4% 2.3% Oil Gas Coal Biomass/Other Nuclear Hydro/Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 17 2.1% 9.9%
CO 2 Emissions Moderate By Region Billion Tons Emissions per Capita Tons per Person 4 2 2 21 3 Other Non OECD 23 2 India 1 China 1 OECD 198 2 23 United States Europe OECD China India ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 18
Liquids Support Growing Demand Liquids Supply MBDOE Average Growth / Yr. 2 23 12 Liquids Demand.8% 23 OPEC 9 ~29 ~3 Biofuels ~36 Non-OPEC 2 6 OPEC Crude ~27 NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other 3 Canadian Oil Sands Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate 198 199 2 21 22 23 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 19 Supply
Biofuel Growth Continues By Region MBDOE 3 US Supply MBDOE 2. EISA* 222 Target US Ethanol vs. Gasoline % Volume 2 1. 2 ROW Biodiesel ROW Ethanol 1. 2 nd Gen Imports 1 E1 Blend 1 Brazil Ethanol. Biodiesel US Biofuels 2 2 23 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook Corn Ethanol. 2 2 23 2 2 2 23 *EISA: Energy Independence and Security Act
Natural Gas Demand Grows Globally Growth by Region & Sector 2 to 23 BCFD 4 3 Power Generation 2 1 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Latin America Middle East Africa Other Non OECD ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 21
Asia Pacific Gas Outlook Accelerates By Fuel By Region BCFD 3 12 2 Other 1 Other Asia Pacific Australia 2 Japan 7 India Coal Southeast Asia 1 Gas Oil 2 China 198 2 23 198 2 23 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 22
Southeast Asia Natural Gas Demand Total Demand Gas By Sector BCFD 3 Res/Comm 4 2 Other 2 3 Coal Industrial 2 Gas 1 1 Oil Power Generation 198 2 23 Transportation 198 2 23 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 23
Gas Supply Grows and Diversifies United States BCFD Europe BCFD Asia Pacific BCFD 12 12 12 1 1 1 8 LNG 8 7 6 Pipeline 6 4 Unconventional 4 Local Production 2 2 2 Conventional 2 2 23 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 2 2 23 24 2 2 23
Development Challenges and Solutions World development continues, while lives improve and economies grow 8 billion people 1% increase in global GDP 3% increase in energy demand 3 quadrillion BTUs saved via efficiency All reliable, affordable energy supplies needed ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 2
Development Challenges and Solutions Increase Efficiency Technology Mitigate Emissions Expand Supplies ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 26
ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 27