Adapting to Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary Danielle Kreeger Partnership for the Delaware Estuary Drexel University August 1, 2012
2007 2010 2012 2013 2011 Recognize Problem Track Change Assess Vulnerability & Prioritize Solutions Translate & Engage Action Plans
3 case studies http://www.delawareestuary.org/ science_projects_climate_ready_products.asp
Questions How will climate change here? How will changes impact resources? What are our options for making these resources more resilient? How do we prioritize tactics? What if we don t take action? (since every dollar is precious)
How Will Climate Change? as per Dr. Ray Najjar Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years 2025 2060 2100
Climate Momentum Mitigation critically important for the long-term (grandkids) Difference between a rise of 2 versus 4 degrees centigrade translates into a difference between local versus mass extinction Adaptation critically important for the short-term (Kids) No amount of mitigation will stem the 1 degree centigrade rise in temperatures expected over the next 25 years we must adapt
How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years Chester Creek, PA October 1, 2010 Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events
How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events Sea Level 0.6-1.5 m by 2100 (or more) local rates >> global Salinity
How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events Sea Level 0.6-1.5 m by 2100 (or more) local rates >> global Salinity Storms? Growing Season
Drinking Water >16 million people Philadelphia 1.4 million New York City Anticipated population growth of 83% by 2100 95% used for power generation and industry Increasing demands for industry, e.g. shale drilling
Drinking Water Vulnerability Sea Level Rise Saltwater Intrusion Flooding / Storm Surge Precipitation Changes Storms and Flooding Salinity Rise Drought Infrastructure Erosion Degraded Sourcewater Sea Level Rise Drinking Water Vulnerabilities Wild Fires / Lightening
Drinking Water Adaptation Options Infrastructure protection and upgrades New treatment & distribution system Storm water control Source water protection Wastewater disinfection Protect river flow to offset saltwater
Drinking Water Tough Questions How can we maintain low salinity in the upper estuary? Will more reservoirs be needed and where? Where should infrastructure be protected?
Coastal Wetlands Abundant Diverse Benefits: Flood Protection Water Quality Fish and Wildlife Natural Areas Carbon Capture
2012 State of the Estuary Report Rapid loss of acreage and degraded wetland health 2012
Coastal Wetland Vulnerability Freshwater Tidal Marshes Salinity Rise Barriers to Landward Migration Tidal Range Salt Marshes Sea Level Rise Storms and Wind Wave Erosion Barriers to Landward Migration
>25% Loss of tidal wetlands Coastal Wetlands - Future Conversion of >40,000 acres Uplands to Wetlands Conversion of >100,000 acres Wetlands to Water Loss of Benefits >> Acreage Losses 2000 2000 2100
Coastal Wetlands Adaptation Options Living shorelines Buffers Sediment management Structure Setbacks Wetland Tough Choices Where will they be converted to open water? Where can we save them? Where is strategic retreat the best option? Strategic Retreat Protect river flow to offset saltwater
Restoration for the Future = Climate Adaptation Example: Delaware Estuary Living Shoreline Initiative Kreeger 19
Slides from Dick Neves, VA Tech Bivalve Shellfish (oysters, mussels, clams) 60 Species Diverse Benefits: Stabilize Erosion Water Quality Fish and Wildlife Commercial Fishery No mussels 8 adult mussels
Nature s Benefits Bivalve Shellfish are Ecosystem Engineers DK 6/23/10 Mussel Beds CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project Oyster Reefs Kreeger
Shellfish Vulnerability Freshwater Mussels Imperiled Marine Mussels Losing Habitat Oysters DRBC Salt water
Shellfish Adaptation Options Shellplanting for Oysters Propagate Mussels Monitoring & Research Living Shorelines Water Quality & Flow Management Fish Passage Restoration Riparian Restoration
Restoration for the Future = Climate Adaptation Headwaters to Sea 1. Non-tidal 2. Intertidal 3. Subtidal Kreeger 24
Climate Change + Other Changes Marcellus Shale Dredging Withdrawals Land Use Change Development Emerging Pollutants Ecological Flows Spills Added Complexity
Take Home Messages Not all changes will be bad, but many more losers than winners Need a Paradigm Shift: restore for the future rather than the past Plan for extreme events, and dynamic conditions (not static) Put nature to work for us, using signature species/habitats Adaptation requires investment to protect lives and livelihoods Justify costs with improved cost:benefit assessments that capture natural capital value proactive investment today usually saved money in the long term due to compounding of ecosystem services Adaptation is underway but hampered by funding, especially here
Delaware Estuary Pilot www.delawareestuary.org