October 213 BIEE Gas Seminar: Global Shifts in Gas Demand Kai Dunker, Lead Economist Global Gas Markets
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation. Energy Outlook 23 2 BP 213
Introduction Outlook 23: Natural Gas Outlook 23: Natural Gas - Europe Conclusion Appendix BP 213
Introduction Outlook 23: Natural Gas Outlook 23: Natural Gas - Europe Conclusion Appendix BP 213
Shale gas and global supply growth Gas production by type and region Bcf/d Bcf/d Shale gas production 5 4 3 2 1 Non-OECD other Non-OECD shale OECD shale OECD other 8 6 4 2 RoW China Europe & Eurasia Canada & Mexico US % of total (RHS) 18% 12% 6% 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 % 199 2 21 22 23 BP 213
Shale gas: regional growth Sources of gas supply, by region Bcf/d N. America Bcf/d EU Bcf/d China 12 12 12 Net pipeline imports 1 8 6 1 8 6 1 8 6 Net LNG imports Shale gas production Other domestic production 4 4 4 2 2 2-2 199 21 23-2 199 21 23-2 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Gas trade and market integration LNG exports LNG diversification Bcf/d 8 2% 1 Suppliers per importer 6 4 % of total consumption (RHS) 15% 1% 8 6 4 Customers per exporter 2 5% LNG % 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 2 1991 1996 21 26 211 BP 213
Global gas demand outlook Demand by region Demand by sector Bcf/d Bcf/d 5 5 4 China 4 3 Other non- OECD 3 Power 2 Middle East 1 Other OECD N. America 199 2 21 22 23 2 Other 1 Industry Transport 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 8 BP 213
Gas demand relative to other fuels Transport demand by fuel Billion toe 3 Electricity 2 Gas Coal Biofuels 1 Oil - road World power generation Thousand TWh 4 Renewables 3 Hydro Nuclear 2 Coal 1 Gas 199 21 23 Oil - non-road 197 199 21 23 Oil Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Introduction Outlook 23: Natural Gas Outlook 23: Natural Gas - Europe Conclusion Appendix Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
European demand outlook Bcf/d 6 5 4 3 2 1 EU natural gas consumption Transport Power Industry Other Non-OECD OECD OECD 199 21 23 EU power generation input mix Mtoe 9 Renew. Hydro 6 Nuclear 3 Coal Gas Coal Gas Oil Oil 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
European gas-coal competition EU power generation cost /MWh 8 6 4 Gas Coal 2 Jul-1 Mar-11 Nov-11 Jul-12 Mar-13 Source: includes data from Platts, IHS McCloskey and IntercontinentalExchange BP Statistical Review of World Energy 213 EU natural gas power gen. decline 212 change, Mtoe Total Efficiency gains Coal switching Hydro & Nuclear Renewables Lower Power demand -25-2 -15-1 -5 5 BP 213
Introduction Outlook 23: Natural Gas Outlook 23: Natural Gas - Europe Conclusion Appendix Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Global gas balance Demand Supply Bcf/d 5 45 4 Other non-oecd China 23 level OECD 35 3 Other OECD N. America Middle East Non-OECD 25 211 OECD Non-OECD 211 Non-shale Shale Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
The End Thank you BP 213
Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Natural Gas Appendix Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Population, income and energy growth Billion 8 6 Population OECD Non-OECD 1 75 GDP Trillion $211 PPP OECD Non-OECD Billion toe 12 9 Primary energy OECD non-oecd 4 5 6 2 25 3 199 21 23 199 21 23 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Industrialisation drives energy growth Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 3 By region Non- Non-OECD OECD OECD 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 OECD Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 By primary use Power generation Industry 3 Other Transport 199 21 23 Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 By fuel Coal Coal Gas Gas 3 Oil Oil 199 21 23 *Includes biofuels Renew.* Hydro Nuclear BP 213
Emerging economies dominate energy production Billion toe 18 15 12 9 Non-OECD 6 Non-OECD 3 OECD OECD 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 3 199 2 21 22 23 FSU S&C America N. America Middle East Europe Asia Pacific Africa BP 213
Transport Industry Other Power Transport Industry Other Power The power sector leads primary energy growth Billion toe 3 2 1-1 Growth by sector and region, 211-23 RoW Middle East China & India OECD Billion toe 3 2 1-1 Growth by sector and fuel, 211-23 Hydro Nuclear Renew. Electricity Gas Biofuels Oil Coal Final energy use Inputs to power Final energy use Inputs to power Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Fuel shares and energy prices Shares of world primary energy $211/boe Energy prices 5% Oil 4% Coal 3% 2% Gas 1% Hydro % Nuclear Renewables* 1965 198 1995 21 225 *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 23 12 1 8 Oil - Brent Gas - basket Coal - basket 6 4 2 1965 198 1995 21 BP 213
Energy efficiency improvements Energy intensity by region Energy and GDP Toe per thousand $211 GDP (PPP) Billion toe Trillion $211 (PPP).5 US 5 2.4 China 4 15.3 3 1.2 2 GDP (RHS).1 World 5 1 EU* Energy. 187 189 191 193 195 197 199 21 23 197 199 21 23 *Euro4 (France, Italy, Germany, UK) pre-197 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Energy supply growth Demand Supply Billion toe 17 16 15 23 level Renew.* Hydro Nuclear 14 Other 13 12 *Includes biofuels Tight Other Shale 211 Oil Natural gas Coal 211 OECD Non- OECD Nonfossil Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
US tight oil and shale gas: infrastructure requirements Thousands 2. 1.5 1..5. Onshore oil & gas rigs 211 Thousands 15 12 9 6 3 Oil wells drilled and output 212* 211 21 Output (RHS) Mb/d 5 4 3 2 1 Energy Outlook 23 Bakken Canada Colombia *Annualised from 1Q-3Q data BP 213
Asia Pacific N. America S. & C. America Africa Europe & Eurasia Middle East Asia Pacific N. America S. & C. America Africa Europe & Eurasia Middle East Shale gas and tight oil: resources and production Billion toe 6 4 2 Current resources Production in 23 Gas Oil Billion toe.9.6.3. Resources data OECD/IEA 212 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Shale gas uncertainties Share of global supply growth Range of shale gas forecasts % Bcf/d 75% Shale gas 12 1 Range BP 5% 8 6 25% 4 2 % 2-1 21-2 22-3 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213