Resilience in a changing climate Anand Patwardhan School of Public Policy University of Maryland, College Park Email: apat@umd.edu April 22, 2015
Outline A few key messages about climate impacts Vulnerability (of the energy system) Thinking about resilience Some ideas for research April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 2
Some key messages from the AR5 WG2 Climate change is happening now there is stronger evidence of climate change and its impacts There is a greater urgency of response both for adaptation and mitigation Adaptation is best thought of as an iterative risk management process learning and reflexivity are important April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 3
Projected Climate Changes Based on Emission Scenarios Source: CICERO April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 4
Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM
Thinking about dangerous anthropogenic interference Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM
Adaptation as a process of iterative risk management learning is important Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM
Reminder: Even with adaptation, significant risks will still remain Present Near Term (2030-2040) Long Term 2 C (2080-2100) 4 C Very Low Risk-Level Med Very High Risk Level with High Adaptation Potential for Additional Adaptation to Reduce Risk Risk Level with Current Adaptation Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM
Climate change impacts will often be manifested (or experienced) through extreme weather events Rise in the global mean temperature produces a more variable climate, leading to an increase in extreme weather events including Windstorms Rain and snow storms Droughts and increases in forest fires Global sea levels have been rising since the 1970s and can be expected to rise even more rapidly throughout the 21 st century, causing storm surges and increased flooding April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 9
Growing losses due to extreme events April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 10
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Climate risks to electric power Extreme weather is the primary cause of power outages in the United States Between 2003 and 2012, 679 power outages, each affecting at least 50,000 customers, occurred due to extreme weather Outages due to severe weather cost on average $18 - $33 billion/year which will increase as extreme weather becomes more frequent and severe April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 12
Source: EIA April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 13
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Source: Climate risk & adaptation in the electric power sector, ADB (2012) April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 16
Definitions of resilience The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) defines resilience as the ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to adverse events (NRC, 2012) The IPCC defines resilience as the capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation (AR5 Glossary, 2014) April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 17
A framework for linking resilience and response (From Bene et al, 2012 and von Grebmer, 2013) April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 18
Source: FAO/OECD (2012) April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 19
A conceptual framework for connecting risk and resilience Source: Linkov, et al, Nature Climate Change (2014) April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 20
Some directions for resilience research Implicit assumption that the current state is desirable is this the case? Recovery is important, but what should be the end-point (build back better)? How do we think about resilience when the baseline is not fixed and we have to respond to to changing (worsening) conditions in the future? How do we measure & assess resilience? April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 21
Assessing Resilience Important to choose the right metrics Many utilities assess their storm responses based on median outage time, but does this tell the whole story? Who is at the tail of the distribution and how are they affected? Currently studying restoration / recovery processes in Maryland, to identify socioeconomic or regional patterns among the worst affected groups April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 22
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Policies for resilience Most utilities have active plans to harden their infrastructure against flood and wind damages, and many public utilities have issued rules and regulations related to these actions However, is this always cost-effective? Also necessary to increase system flexibility and recoverability April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 25
A typology of situations are there possible trade-offs between risk & resilience? April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 26
Looking ahead The future electricity system needs to meet multiple objectives simultaneously: low-carbon, climate resilient, promoting energy security and supporting local economic activity How do we develop and then assess and deploy such solutions? Technology solutions have to be compatible with brownfield and greenfield situations The situations in the developed and developing countries are quite different presenting both opportunities and challenges April 22 2015 Anand Patwardhan, SPP/UMD 27