IN THE NAME OF ALLAH, MOST GRACIOUS, MOST MERCIFUL 1
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Sequence Energy security Overview of energy sector Economics of nuclear power generation Reference to contemporary studies 3
Energy Security World Bank definition: the sustainable production and use of energy at reasonable costs to ensure a certain quality of life. Energy security comprises of :- Availability: Conventional and non-conventional fuels and renewable resources Accessibility: Overcome the geopolitical, financial and human constraints and major infrastructure and technology deployment Acceptability: Environmental and safety concerns Affordability: Consumers able to afford energy services 4
Overview of Energy Sector Production >23000 MW Summer peak demand: 16000 MW Lopsided energy mix Over reliance on thermal resources, using expensive fuels Galvanizing renewable pug-ins (wind, solar etc): Easier said than done! Generation cost higher than recoverable revenue 5
Electricity Generation by fuel: 2011 12 5.8 % 0.1 % 29 % 35.2 % Oil Hdroelectricity Natural Gas Nuclear Coal 29.9 % 6
Circular Debt: Rs 872.4 bn (end 2012): 4% of GDP Tariff Diff. Claims vs Disbursed Subsidies Non Collection Private Governments Tariff determination- Notification Delay NEPRA : Actual vs Allowed T&D losses KESC Non collections to CPPA Fuel Price Adjustments (Rs, billion) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Year Debt, Beginning of the Year 84.07 111.26 144.99 161.21 235.65 365.66 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 537.53 2012 7
Performance of Operational Power Plants of the Country 100 Hydro GENCOs IPPs C-1/C-2* 80 % 60 40 20 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 * C-2 Commercial Operation Date: May 12, 2011 Sources: a) State of Industry Report 2012 (NEPRA) b) Operational data of C-1/C-2 8
Economics of Operational Power Plants Electricity Generation Cost 2011-12 Source: State of Industry Report 2012, NEPRA 9
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Source: International Energy Out look, 2011 EIA 13
Nuclear Power Installed capacity and generation 1980-2012 Source: International Energy Out look, 2011 EIA 14
Known Recoverable Resources of Uranium Country Tons Percent Australia 1,673,000 31 Kazakhstan 651,000 12 Canada 485,000 9 Russia 480,000 9 South Africa 295,000 5 Namibia 284,000 5 Brazil 279,000 5 Niger 272,000 5 USA 207,000 4 China 171,000 3 Jordan 112,000 2 Uzbekistan 111,000 2 Ukraine 105,000 2 India 80,000 1.5 Mongolia 49,000 1 Others 150,000 3 World total 5,404,000 43% 18% 24% 61% Reasonably Assured Resources plus Inferred Resources, to US$ 130/kg U, Jan 1, 2009;. Ref: OECD NEA & IAEA, Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand ("Red Book"). Depletion, or utilisation of new resources, are ultimately driven by technology and costs of recovery. 15
Cost of Nuclear power Economics of new nuclear power plants is a controversial subject High capital costs, but low direct fuel costs Comparison with other power generation methods is dependent on assumptions about construction timescales and capital financing Mitigation of global warming favours the economics of nuclear power 16
Cost of Nuclear power Enormous upfront cost Returns may be very great, they're also very slow It can take decades to recoup initial costs Discount rate most sensitive parameter to overall cost Once capital investment costs are effectively sunk, plants are virtually cash machines. 17
Cost of Nuclear power Nuclear power is cost competitive with other forms of electricity generation, except where there is direct access to low-cost fossil fuels Economics of nuclear power must also take into account who bears the risks of future uncertainties 18
Cost of Nuclear power There are two ways of measuring the cost of a nuclear power plant: the overnight cost, which counts up the material and labour that goes into a new plant as if it had all been purchased simultaneously, and the levellized cost, which is a measure of the total amount of energy a plant provides over its life divided by the total expenditure One is the cost of the capacity to produce electricity, other is the cost of the electricity produced 19
De commissioning, 1 5% CAPEX 60% O&M 20% 5% 5% Uranium Conversion 1% 6% Enrichment 3% Fuel Fabrication Back End Activities At 45,000 MWd/t burn up we get 360,000 kwh electrical per kg, Fuel cost: ~ 0.8c / kwh. 40 Sensitivity to Fuel Price GenerationCosts, Euro/MWh 35 30 25 20 15 Gas Coal Nuclear 25% Base Case +25% +50% 20
Cost comparison: Nuclear power Country/Entity Overnight Cost Remarks (US$/1000 Kwh) China 1700/1000 Generation II /CAP 1700 (IEA/NEA study) South Korea 1500 Generation II plants Britain 3000 New PWR MIT 4000 PWR NEA 5400 EPR Progress Energy Florida 9000 AP1000 IIASA 21 Vienna 3252 French Model 21
Cost comparison: Nuclear power Country/Entity Overnight Cost (US$/1000 Kwh) Remarks OECD 1556/3009 APR 1400 Korea ABWR Japan USA 3382 Generation III France 3860 EPR Switzerland 4100 Generation III Belgium, Netherlands, Czech Republic >5000 Generation III Russia 2933 VVER-1150 22 22
Cost comparison: Other systems Country/Entity Overnight Cost Remarks (US$/1000 Kwh) OECD Black coal 807 to 2719 Without carbon capture and compression OECD Black coal 3223 to 5811 With carbon capture and compression OECD Brown coal 1802 to 3485 OECD Gas plants 635 to 1747 OECD on shore Wind 1821 to 3716 Generation III Source: 2010 edition of the IEA/NEA & OECD 2010 study 23
Comparative Costs of Electricity (US cents/kwh) technology region or country At 10% discount rate At 5% discount rate Nuclear OECD Europe 8.3-13.7 5.0-8.2 China 4.4-5.5 3.0-3.6 Black coal with CCS OECD Europe 11.0 8.5 Brown coal with CCS OECD Europe 9.5-14.3 6.8-9.3 CCGT with CCS OECD Europe 11.8 9.8 Large hydro-electric OECD Europe 14.0-45.9 7.4-23.1 China: 3 Gorges 5.2 2.9 China: other 2.3-3.3 1.2-1.7 Onshore wind OECD Europe 12.2-23.0 9.0-14.6 China 7.2-12.6 5.1-8.9 Offshore wind OECD Europe 18.7-26.1 13.8-18.8 Solar photovoltaic OECD Europe 38.8-61.6 28.7-41.0 China 18.7-28.3 12.3-18.6 Source: OECD/IEA-NEA, 2010, Projected Costs of Generating - Electricity, Tables 3.7 24
For Plants Coming On-line in 2016 25
Global Mix by Decade, A Snapshot of Modern Economies Percent 100 80 60 40 RE Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil 20 0 Coal Biomass 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2040 Ref: V. Smil, Energy Transitions, 1800 1960; & EXXON: 2012 ;The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 German Coal Liquids Technology. 26
Acknowledgements Dr Shaukat Hammed Khan Dr Gulfraz Ahamd Syed Shaukat Hasan 27
Thank you! 28