Carbon in US Energy Production Peter Wilcoxen Departments of Economics and Public Administration The Maxwell School, Syracuse University SURE 2009 November 5, 2009 http://wilcoxen.maxwell.insightworks.com/pages/talks/ 1
Fuel use and energy units National fuel use is measured in quads 1 quad = 1 quadrillion BTU (10^15) How large is a quad? Coal unit trains : 100 cars, about 1 mile long 1 train fuels a 300 MW power plant for about 3 days 1 quad = 4,500 unit trains Annual energy consumption World: 400 quads US: 100 quads 2
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California load curve Independent System Operator (ISO) Operates part of the electrical grid Data for January 21st Demand (red curve): Min at 3:30 am, 21 GW Max at 6:30 pm, 32.5 GW Max is 55% higher Capacity (green curve): 34.5 41 GW 7
Oil 12% of capacity 50 GWyr 7 GWyr Electric Sector Capacity Utilization 2006 Natural Gas 22% of capacity Coal 72% of capacity 290 GWyr 84 GWyr 84 GWyr 224 GWyr 511 GWyr Nuclear 90% of capacity 10 GWyr 90 GWyr 444 GWyr 955 GWyr Renewables 34% of capacity 77 GWyr 39 GWyr Legend Electricity, GWyr [GWyr] Additional Capacity, GWyr [GWyr]
Summary of generation mix Fuel Capacity (GW) Generation (GWyr) Fossil Fuel Use (Quads) Carbon (Mmt C) Oil 57 7 0.6 13 Gas 374 84 6.4 93 Coal 310 224 20.5 532 Fossil total 741 315 27.5 638 Nuclear 100 90 Renewables 116 39 Total 958 444 27.5 638 9
Leading options for replacing fossil Integrated gasification combined cycle coal (IGCC) With carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) Combined cycle gas (CC) With CCS Nuclear Renewables Biomass Hydro Wind Solar thermal, photovoltaic 10
Cost of building new power plants Technology Capital cost per GW of capacity Technology Capital cost per kw of capacity Coal $2.1 B Adv Nuclear $3.3 B IGCC $2.4 B Biomass $3.8 B IGCC with CCS $3.5 B Hydro $2.2 B Nat Gas CC $0.9 B Onshore Wind $1.9 B CC with CCS $1.9 B Solar Thermal $5.0 B Solar/PV $6.0 B 11
Recent expansion of gas capacity 12 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Natural Gas Capacity in GW 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year
Replacing fossil completely? Need about 550 GW total 330 GW baseload 220 GW peaking Fossil with CCS 410 GW of IGCC CCS coal (80% utilization) = $1.4 T 220 GW of CC CCS gas = $420 B Total = $1.8T Intermittent renewables 1300 GW of wind (25% utilization) = $2.5 T 220 GW of CC CCS gas = $420 B Total = $2.9 T 13
Transmission grid Can we get power where it s needed? Especially important for wind and solar Best locations are far from cities Need geographic dispersion 14
More grid capacity needed for wind Variation in wholesale electricity prices due to grid congestion From 2006 Midwest ISO PJW Coordinated System Plan (CSP), December 2006. 15
Very important implication Would be less expensive if demand were lower Need to reduce fuel use on the demand side 16
US Residential Energy Consumption 2001 Values in quadrillion BTU unless otherwise noted 4.6 0.5 5 Space Heating 50% (32% C) 93 mmt C Oil Gas Renewables Electricity 1.1 4.8 0.4 3.9 Total Consumption 10.2 6.3 3.9 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.6 1.7 Air Conditioning 6% (11% C) Water Heating 16% (13% C) 32 mmt C 38 mmt C 0.7 0.5 Ovens & Ranges 7% (7% C) Refrigerators 5% (9% C) 19 mmt C 27 mmt C 163 mmt C 290 mmt C Legend Electricity [Quad] Natural Gas [Quad] 2.4 0.4 2.8 Appliances 27% (44% C) 0.3 0.2 Lighting 3% (6% C) Clothes Dryers 2% (4% C) 17 mmt C 11 mmt C 127 mmt C Oil [Quad] Renewables [Quad] Carbon [mmt C] 0.1 Freezers 1% (2% C) 7 mmt C Carbon from Electricty [mmt C] 0.1 Color TVs 1% (2% C) 6 mmt C Data source: Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2001 0.8 Other 8% (14% C) 40 mmt C 17
US Commercial Building Energy Consumption 1999 Values in quadrillion BTU unless otherwise noted 1.7 0.2 1.9 Space Heating 34% (17% C) 33 mmt C Oil Gas 0.2 2 Total Consumption 5.3 2.2 1 0.3 1 0.3 Air Conditioning 19% (27% C) Water Heating 6% (3% C) 52 mmt C 6 mmt C 91 mmt C 191 mmt C Electricity 3.1 3.1 0.3 Cooking 5% (3%) 6 mmt C 0.2 0.3 Refrigeration 5% (7% C) 14 mmt C Legend Electricity [Quad] Natural Gas [Quad] 1.9 2.1 Other 41% (52% C) 0.7 Lighting 13% (19% C) 37 mmt C 100 mmt C Oil [Quad] Carbon [mmt C] Carbon from Electricty [mmt C] 0.6 Office Equipment 10% (15% C) 28 mmt C 0.3 Other 7% (8% C) 15 mmt C Data source: Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2001 18
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 US Manufacturing Energy Consumption, 2002 19 Quadrillion BTU Food Beverage, Tobacco Textile Mills Textile Product Mills Apparel Leather Wood Products Paper Printing Petroleum Products Chemicals Plastics, Rubber Nonmetallic Minerals Primary Metals Fabricated Metals Machinery Computers, Electronics Electrical Equipment Transportation Equipment Furniture Miscellaneous
Historical perspective? Does fuel use rise inexorably no matter what? What do we know from history about fuel use? 20
Exponential growth after the war (3.4%) Quadrillion BTU 0 50 100 150 200 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Actual Fitted 21
Sharp change after the energy shocks! Quadrillion BTU 0 50 100 150 200 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Actual Fitted 22
Energy prices matter! Stabilized US energy consumption for about 20 years GDP growth was a little slower: about 0.2% per year 23