i - PDF Free Download

iii

Figure ES-1: 11000 10000 9000 Overnight Costs (2008$/KW) 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 GREAT BANDWAGON MARKET Wall Street and Independent Analysts Utilities NUCLEAR RENNAISANCE 2000 1000 Early Vendors, Government & Academics 0 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Year of Operation/Projection Operating Plants Projected Plants 3

120 100 Percent of Nuclear 80 60 40 20 0 Efficiency Cogeneration Biomass I Biomass II Geothermal Wind Landfill Solar - Thermal Solar PV Fuel Cell CC Gas Coal Scrubbed Coal w CCS IGCC IGCC w CCS Nuclear Geothermal Wind Solar - Thermal Solar PV CC Gas Coal Scrubbed IGCC Nuclear Geothermal Wind Hydro Biomass I Biomass II CC Gas Fuel Cell Nuclear Wind Solar - Thermal CC Gas Coal Scrubbed Nuclear Lazard CRS CEC Moody's S & P Lovins Wind CC Gas Coal Scrubbed IGCC Nuclear Efficiency Cogeneration Wind CC Gas Coal Scrubbed Nuclear 5

(Cost of Alternatives Substitution Curve) 16 Solar PV 14 12 Solar Thermal Wind II Fossil w/ccs Nuclear Storage & New Tech. Cents per kwh (2008$) 10 8 6 4 Efficiency Hydro Geothermal Cogeneration Wind I Biomass II With Natural Gas Biomass I 2 16 32 49 65 81 97 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 Percent of 2050 Base Case Demand/Low Carbon Supply (Billions of kwh) 6

Coal Nuclear Societal Impact Hydro Fossil w/ccs Cogen Gas Biomass Landfill Solar Thermal Efficiency Wind Geothermal Fuel Cell Solar PV Consumer Cost 9

11000 10000 9000 8000 Overnight Costs (2008$/KW) 7000 6000 5000 4000 GREAT BANDWAGON MARKET NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE 3000 2000 1000 0 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Year of Operation/Projection Operating Plants Projected Plants 11

0.3 0.25 Dollars per kwh ($2008) 0.2 0.15 0.1 GREAT BANDWAGON MARKET NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE 0.05 0 1971 1975 1980 1985 2001 Operating Plants Projected Plants 12

Operating Assumptions Capacity, Life, Performance Risk: Financial, Marketplace, Technological, Regulatory, Safety Overnight Costs Finance Costs, Owners Cost All-in Costs Installed Subsidies: Insurance, R&D, Loan Guarantees Waste Operation & Maintenance (Fixed & Variable) Capital Additions Direct Costs (Bus bar Costs) External Costs Fuel Costs (Supplies & Enrichment) Delivered Cost (Pocketbook Costs) Total Social Costs Waste Management Escalation or Management, Quality Control, Design, Siting Pinch Points (Heavy Components, Labor, Inputs) Scale, Regulation Decommissioning Costs Indirect Costs (T&D Costs) Source: Prepared by Author Calculation Conventions Deflating, Discounting, Levelizing 15

Source: Prepared by Author 16

Plant Characteristics Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor Forced Outage Rate Scheduled Outage Rate Heat Rate (If Applicable) Heat Rate and Capacity Degradation Deflator Series Fuel Prices ($/MMBtu) Instant Cost ($/kw) Installed Cost ($/kw) Fixed O&M ($/KW-YR) Plant Characteristics Capacity (MW) Capacity Factor Forced Outage Rate Scheduled Outage Rate Heat Rate (If Applicable) Heat Rate and Capacity Degradation Financial Assumption (Merchant, Muni & IOU) % Debt Cost of Debt (%) Cost of Equity (%) Loan/Debt Terms (Years) Book Life (Years) COST OF GENERATION MODEL Wholesale Electricity Prices ($/MWh) Fixed Cost Variable Cost Total Cost Levelized Fixed Costs ($/kw Yr& $/MWh) Capital & Financing Insurance Ad Valorem Fixed O& M Corporate Taxes Levelized Variable Costs ($/kw Yr& $/MWh) Fuel Variable O&M Total Levelized Costs ($/kw Yr& $/MWh) Levelized Fixed Costs Levelized Variable cost Annual Cost ($/MWh) Fixed Cost Variable O&M Total Cost Screening curves ($/kw Yr& $/MWh) Fixed Cost Variable Cost Total Cost Sensitivity Curves (%) Fuel Prices Capacity Factor Installed Cost Discount Rate Cost of Equity Cost of Debt 19

11000 10000 9000 8000 Wall Street and Independent Analysts Overnight Costs (2008$/KW) 7000 6000 5000 4000 GREAT BANDWAGON MARKET NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE Utilities 3000 2000 Early consultants Government & Academics 1000 0 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Year of Operation/Projection Operating Plants Projected Plants 24

11000 10000 9000 8000 Overnight Costs (2008$/KW) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 MIT EIA TVA 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year of Operation/Projection Projected Plants Sources: See Figure I-1. 25

30 27 Busbar Costs (2008 Cents/kWh) 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Overnight Costs (2008$//kW) Harding 2009 - Medium MIT Base Case MIT @ Utility Finance U of C Base case 27

Cents per kwh (2008$) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 MIT Keystone Severance Harding High Low Busbar Costs (2008 cents/kwh) 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Harding 2009 - All Overnight Costs (2008$/kW) MIT @ Utility Finance + Harding Base Case O & M 28

11000 Overnight Costs (2008$/KW) 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 There are no surprises, when history suggests that costs would do this Initial studies spent a lot of time trying to explain why cost estimates might do this Recent studies spend a lot of time explaining why cost estimates are doing this 1000 0 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 Year of Operation/Projection 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Operating Plants Projected Plants Sources: See Figure I-1. 30

31 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Year of Operation Lifetime Capacity Factor

Source: MIT, 2003, p. 43; Keystone, 2007, p. 42. 32

34 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 N u m b e r o f P la n ts Ordered Complete

Percent of Base Initial Year Projection 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1966-67 1968-69 1970-71 1972-73 1974-75 1976-77 1966-67 Projected 1966-67 Actual 35

Percent of Base Initial Year Projection 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009 1966-67 1968-69 1970-71 1972-73 1974-75 1976-77 2001-09 Median 1966-67 Actual 2001-09 All 36

Years 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1966-67 1968-69 1970-71 1972-73 1974-75 1976-77 Actual Estimated 37

Overnight Costs ($2008) 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Construction Period and Overnight Costs - Completed Plants y = 375.24x - 723.24 R 2 = 0.5322 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Construction Period Years Overnight Costs (2008$/kw) 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Construction Periods and Overnight Costs - Future Plants y = 914.9x - 2923.6 R 2 = 0.6528 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Construction Period (Years) 38

% of Total Construction Costs 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Year from Groundbreaking Severance Moody's 39

Analysts' Overnight and Busbar Cost Estimates Since 2001 30 Busbar Costs (2008 cnets/kwh) 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 Overnight Costs (2008$/kW) Analysts' Overnight and Busbar Cost Extimates Since 2007 300 250 200 15 0 CEC Utility Model Moody s Harding mid-mid Harding high-mid 10 0 MIT II CRS Lazard high 50 0 0 10 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 110 0 0 Overnight Costs (2008$/kW) Source: Figure I-1. 40

V. NUCLEAR REACTOR COSTS COMPARED TO OTHER OPTIONS 43

120 100 Percent of Nuclear 80 60 40 20 0 Efficiency Cogeneration Biomass I Biomass II Geothermal Wind Landfill Solar - Thermal Solar PV Fuel Cell CC Gas Coal Scrubbed Coal w CCS IGCC IGCC w CCS Nuclear Geothermal Wind Solar - Thermal Solar PV CC Gas Coal Scrubbed IGCC Nuclear Geothermal Wind Hydro Biomass I Biomass II CC Gas Fuel Cell Nuclear Wind Solar - Thermal CC Gas Coal Scrubbed Nuclear Wind CC Gas Coal Scrubbed IGCC Nuclear Lazard CRS CEC Moody's S & P Lovins Efficiency Cogeneration Wind CC Gas Coal Scrubbed Nuclear 44

(Nuclear Reactor Cost = 100%) 120 100 80 Percent of Nuclear 60 40 20 0 Efficiency Efficiency Biomass I Biomass II Biomass II Biomass II Cogeneration Hydro Geothermal Geothermal Geothermal Landfill CC Gas CC Gas CC Gas CC Gas CC Gas Wind I Wind I Wind I Wind ii Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Solar - Thermal Solar - Thermal Fuel Cell Fuel Cell CC Gas w/ccs IGCC w CCS Coal w CCS Solar - Thermal Solar - Thermal Solar - Thermal Coal Scrubbed Coal Scrubbed Coal Scrubbed Coal Scrubbed IGCC IGCC IGCC 45

$ (2007)/kWh 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 Hydro Conduit Biomass - LFG Biomass - AD Food Geothermal - Dual Flash Geothermal - Binary Wind - Class 5 Advanced Combined Cycle Biomass - WWTP Conventional CC - Duct Fired Biomass Combustion - Stoker Boiler Biomass Fluidized Bed Boiler Biomass - IGCC Fuel Cell - Solid Oxide Fuel Cell - Molten Carbonate Hydro - Small Scale Conventional Combined Cycle Biomass - AD Dairy IGCC Moody'sNuclear Fuel Cell - Proton Exchange Base Case CRS Carbon Solar Trugh Solar PV Conc. Solar Stirling Dish Solar PV (Single Axis) 46

Percent of Nuclear 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Lazard CRS Moody's S & P Lovins CBO U of C MIT Pulverized Coal Gas CC 47

300 250 2008$/MWH 200 150 100 50 0 Efficiency Cogeneration Biomass co-firing Geothermal Wind Small Hydro Biomass-Direct Landfill Solar - Thermal Fuel Cell CC Gas Gas w CCS Coal w CCS Nuclear Solar-PV Coal Scrubbed CBO Lovins S&P Lazard Moody's CRS Harding Severance REN21 CEC MIT II IGCC 48

140 128 120 Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh) 100 80 60 40 108 74 79 66 58 Gas CCGT Thin Film PV Crystalline PV 20 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 49

30 Soalr PV Cost (2008 Cents/kWh) 25 20 15 10 5 Landfill Efficiency Solar Therm Biomass New Hydro Geotherm Wind Cogeneration 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Low Carbon Carbon "Supply" (Percent of 2030 Demand) 50

16 Solar PV Fossil w/ccs Nuclear Storage & New Tech. Cents per kwh (2008$) 14 12 10 8 6 4 Efficiency Hydro Geothermal Cogeneration Wind I Solar Thermal Wind II Biomass II With Natural Gas Biomass I 2 16 32 49 65 81 97 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 Percent of 2050 Base Case Demand/Low Carbon Supply (Billions of kwh) 52

Cents Per kwh 25 20 15 $19 billion per reactor; $1.9 trillion for 100 reactors 10 5 $32 billion per reactor; $3.2 trillion for 100 reactors $44 billion per reactor; $4.4 trillion for 100 reactors 0 Efficiency/Renewables Nuclear - Low Nuclear - Mid Nuclear - High 53

8000 Capital Cost ($/kw) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 Biomass Direct 36 Solar PV Tower Wind 12 36 Coal w/ccs Geothermal Nuclear 69 24 60 63 12 3 24 IGCC 12 Fuel Cell Solar PV Thin Film Solar PV Crystalline Solar PV Trough 2000 Land Fill 12 1000 Biomass Co-fire 36 Gas CC 0 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Consumer Cost (Cents/kWh) Source: 56

0.3 Cents per kg CO2 Saved 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 Biomass I Efficiency Geotherm Cogen Hydro Biomass II Windl Landfill Solar Therm Fuel Cell Gas CCS3 Nuclear Wind II Coal CCS Solar PV 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Cents per kwh 57

Conventional Coal Acid Rain Gas CC Solar, Wind Nuclear Uranium Source: Moody s, 2008, p. 15. 59

300 250 Nuclear Reactors 200 150 100 50 0 2007$/MWH Biomass - AD Food Hydro - In Conduit Biomass - LFG Wind - Class 5 Geothermal - Dual Flash Geothermal - Binary Biomass - WWTP IGCC Advanced CC Conventional CC Hydro - Small Scale Conventional CC - Duct Fuel Cell - Solid Oxide Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cell - Molten Biomass - IGCC Biomass - Stoker Biomass - AD Dairy Biomass Fluidized Bed Advanced Nuclear @ $5900 Fuel Cell - Proton Advanced Simple Cycle Solar - Parabolic Trough Merchant Investor Owned Utility Public Utility 63

D. THE BOTTOM LINE ON NUCLEAR POWER 64

Coal Nuclear Societal Impact Hydro Fossil w/ccs Cogen Gas Biomass Landfill Solar Thermal Efficiency Wind Geothermal Solar PV Consumer Cost Fuel Cell 65

Differential Assumptions about Capital Costs: Base 2003 Updated Cost at Assumption Assumption Full Index Escalation Nuclear 2000 4000 5520 Coal 1300 2300 2080 68