参考資料 1 GHG Emissions Reduction Targets for International Shipping Maritime Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
UNFCCC Adopted the Paris Agreement in 2015 Long-term goal Below 2 above pre-industrial Pursuing efforts to limit 1.5 2015 2020 2023 ~2100 Adoption Submission of NDC* by each party Global Stocktake* GHG Balance* *NDC: Nationally determined contribution *Global stocktake: review process every 5 years *GHG balance: anthropogenic emissions = removals Submitted NDCs EU 40% by 2030 China 65%/GDP by 2030 Japan 26% by 2030 India 35%/GDP by 2030 Canada 30% by 2030 Brazil 43% by 2030 1
International aviation sector Adopted global GHG reduction targets and measures including MBM in 2013 Global targets 2% (efficiency) every year Maintain below 2020 level (volume) CO 2 (Mt) 2020 level MBMs Biofuels 2010 2020 2030 2040 2
International shipping International shipping needs GHG reduction target IMO s approach EEDI for new ships (2013-) SEEMP for new & existing ships (2013-) Data collection system for new & existing ships (2019-) Yet, no GHG reduction target in international shipping Could be regarded as a loophole IMO should show its commitment to the world 3
Setting the targets for International Shipping Targets should be ambitious, but achievable Level of contribution to climate change Paris agreement well below 2 pursuing efforts 1.5 Maximum achievable level of GHG reduction Operation; Design & retrofitting; and Alternative fuels. satisfying both requirements Global GHG reduction targets with the highest possible ambition 4
GHG reduction Short- to Mid-term Target (-2030) 5
Short- to mid-term goal (Japan s proposal) Reduction target for shipping sector should be based on efficiency [GHG emission] = [transport volume] [efficiency] Out of control for the maritime sector Can be improved by the effort of the maritime sector 6
Short- to mid-term goal (Japan s proposal) Short- to mid-term goal: 40% (efficiency) by 2030 2,000 1,800 Base year (2008) 1,600 1,400 CO 2 emissions Mt 1,200 1,000 800 600 40% (efficiency) Target emissoin level (Japan's scenario) 400 200 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 7
New ships Contributions by EEDI upgraded new ships: 17% (efficiency) 2,000 1,800 1,600 2013 2015 2020 2025 17% 1,400 CO 2 emissions Mt 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 Pre-EEDI 200 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 8
New ships Continuous R&Ds necessary to meet EEDI upgrades Hull & propulsion improvement Air lubrication Energy recovery Wind power LNG-fueled ships 9
Existing ships Retrofitting + Maintenance + Operation: 28% (efficiency) 2,000 1,800 1,600 28% 1,400 CO2 emissions Mt 1,200 1,000 800 600 Target emissoin level (Japan's scenario) 400 200 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 10
Existing ships Retrofitting & Maintenance Costly and limited options Propulsion system upgrade Maintenance and monitoring Operational measures Potential without substantial investments Speed reduction Weather routing 11
Existing ships Speed reduction has potential, but has limit Design speed reduction Optimum speed CO 2 / tonne-mile Optimum speed Design speed Constraints Social impact Fleet increase Safety Other environmental risk Speed 12
Summary (-2030) In the short- to mid-term, 40% (efficiency) is challenging, but achievable in 2030. 40% = EEDI (design & LNG) + retrofitting + maintenance + operation 13
GHG reduction Long-term Target (-2060) 14
Long-term goal (Japan s proposal) Long-term goal by 2060: 90% (efficiency) (= 50% (volume)) 4,500 Base year (2008) 4,000 3,500 CO 2 emissions Mt 3,000 2,500 2,000 90% (efficiency) over 2008 1,500 1,000 2008 level 50% (volume) over 2008 500 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 15
New alternative fuels Not achievable by conventional approaches (technical & operational) 4,500 Base year (2008) 4,000 3,500 3,000 Drastic fuel shifts are necessary - over-80% carbon-reduced fuels (zero-carbon fuel available?) CO 2 emissions Mt 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2008 level Alternative fuels (e.g. Hydrogen, biofuels) 82% 500 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 16
New alternative fuels New fuels involve challenges Carbon intensity of the fuels Fossil fuel New fuel 82% Challenges R&D Safety & risk assessments Legal frameworks Supply chain Land infrastructure Fleet replacement 17
New alternative fuels 2018 R&Ds Years are needed for fuel shift 2030 2060 Safety & risk assessments Developing legal frameworks Developing supply chain & land infrastructure Design, contract, building, delivery Fleet replacement Long-term goal Preparatory stage (by 2030) Implementation stage (2030-2060) 18
Long-term goal (Japan s proposal) Long-term target could be based on volume In principle, reduction target for shipping sector should be based on efficiency. But volume target would be appropriate for the long term. Because 90% efficiency reduction target is not achievable by conventional approaches by the shipping sector; mostly depends on readiness of alternative fuel; and volume target can show the level of contribution to the global GHG reduction. 19
Summary (-2060) In the long-term 50% (volume) is challenging, but achievable in 2060. 50% = technology + regulation + infrastructure + fleet replacement Fuel shift 20
IEA Energy Technology Perspective 2017 2-Degree Scenario (2DS) Beyond 2-Degree Scenario (B2DS) 1 800 Shipping, 2DS/B2DS MtCO 2 -eq 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 Avoided fossil fuel demand Average capacity growth High efficiency: new ships 2DS High efficiency: retrofits 400 200 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Wind assistance B2DS Advanced biofuels Source: International Energy Agency (2017), Energy Technology Perspectives 2017, OECD/IEA, Paris 21
IEA Energy Technology Perspective 2017 50% (volume) by 2060 is within the range of below 2 goal 2-Degree Scenario (2DS) Beyond 2-Degree Scenario (B2DS) 1 800 Shipping, 2DS/B2DS 1 600 Avoided fossil fuel demand MtCO 2 -eq 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 Japan s proposal 50% (volume) by 2060 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Average capacity growth High efficiency: new ships 2DS High efficiency: retrofits Wind assistance B2DS Advanced biofuels Source: International Energy Agency (2017), Energy Technology Perspectives 2017, OECD/IEA, Paris 22
Summary Global GHG reduction target with the highest possible ambition 1. Short- to mid-term target 40% (efficiency) by 2030 (over 2008) 2. Long-term target 50% (volume) by 2060 (over 2008) 23
Emission scenarios (Japan s proposal) 4,500 4,000 Base year (2008) Short- to mid-term target year (2030) Development of new technologies, regulations and infrastructure for new alternative fuels Long-term target year (2060) 3,500 Years needed for fleet replacement 3,000 CO 2 emissions Mt 2,500 2,000 648Mt ( 40%) efficiency 3,561Mt ( 90%) efficiency 1,500 1,000 500 2008 level 50% emissions reduction from 2008 Decarbonization? 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 20802075 20902080 2100 24
Emission scenarios (proposals to ISWG-GHG 2) 3000 Target year 1 Base year (2008) Target year 2 Target year 3 (2030) (2050) (2060) 2500 2000 ICS et al (2) 50% (efficiency) by 2050 CO 2 emissions Mt 1500 Japan 40% (efficiency) by 2030 ICS et al (1) 2008 level (volume) 1000 ICS et al scenario (1) Japan 50% (volume) by 2060 500 Decarboni zation Belgium et al Marshall et al 70% (volume) and Zero emission by 2035 90% (efficiency) by 2050 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 20802075 20902080 2100 25
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Thank you.