Is urbanization a grand opportunity for rural economic growth in developing countries? Peter Richards Bureau for Food Security USAID 1
U.S. Government s Feed the Future Initiative Initiated in 2010 Launched in response to 2008 price spike in food and energy commodities. Designed to accelerate agriculture-sector growth and improve nutrition outcomes. Focus on Value Chains 2
Per Capita GDP (Current US$) in Lower Income Countries $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
% Living in Poverty in Lower Income Countries 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
MILLIONS 1 200 1 000 Rural and Urban Population Growth Lower Income Countries & Sub-Saharan Africa 800 600 Rural 400 200 0 Urban 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Low-income countries Sub-Saharan Africa
Trends in Global Food Consumption 80% Percent Change in Consumption 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Growth is primarily in High Value Perishables Most of Cereal Growth Tied to Feed Crops 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Cereals - Excluding Beer Vegetables Meat
Trends Vary By Country 7
Trends in Food Consumption in Feed the Future Countries Percent Change in Consumption 200 150 100 50 0-50 Malawi Little or No Change -100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP Cereals Poultry Vegetables Milk Fruits
Trends in Food Consumption in Feed the Future Countries 600 Percent Change in Consumption 500 400 300 200 100 0 Ghana Strong Growth in Poultry -100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP Cereals Poultry Vegetables Milk Fruits
Trends in Food Consumption in Feed the Future Countries 200 150 Haiti Major Growth in Poultry 100 50 0 Significant Increases in Dairy -50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GDP Cereals Poultry Vegetables Milk Fruits
Trends in Food Consumption in Feed the Future Countries 350 300 Dairy Consumption increases by 200% Percent Change in Consumption 250 200 150 100 50 0 Ethiopia Vegetable Consumption Doubles -50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GDP Cereals Poultry Vegetables Milk Fruits
Trends in Food Consumption in Feed the Future Countries 250 Percent Change in Consumption 200 150 100 50 Mali Dairy Consumption increases by 150% 0-50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP Cereals Poultry Vegetables Milk Fruits
Trends in Food Consumption in Feed the Future Countries Percent Change in Consumption 100 80 60 40 20 0 Guatemala Significant Increases in Poultry and Vegetable Consumption -20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GDP Cereals Poultry Vegetables Milk Fruits
Trends in Food Consumption in Feed the Future Countries Percent Change in Consumption 200 150 100 50 0 Bangladesh Vegetable and Fruit Consumption Doubled! -50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GDP Cereals Poultry Vegetables Milk Fruits
Next Steps for US Efforts on Food Security 15
Global Food Security Act (GFSA) July 2016 Global Food Security Act (GFSA) passes with bipartisan support. GFSA reaffirms US commitment to end global hunger, poverty and child malnutrition. October 2016 US Government releases the Global Food Security Strategy (GFSS). GFSS charts the course for achieving global food security and contributing to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Urbanization is highlighted as an emerging issue of strategic importance to global food security. 16
Urbanization as an Opportunity for Agricultural Led-Growth 1. Agriculture has new potential for driving economic growth.
Urbanization as an Opportunity for Agricultural Led-Growth 2. (a) Urban markets in developing countries are bigger than ever before, and growing fast.
Urbanization as an Opportunity for Agricultural Led-Growth 2. (b) New food demand is leading to new opportunities for food-system led economic growth.
Urbanization as an Opportunity for Agricultural Led-Growth 2.(c) Demand is growing particularly fast for higher-value perishables and processable foods.
Bangladesh- Onion Consumption 800% Percent Change in Consumption 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% Seven-fold increase In onion consumption! 0% -100%
Bangladesh- Onion Production 450% 400% Production Quadrupled 350% Percent Change in Production 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Bangladesh- Average Value (US$) Generated Per Hectare $5,000 $4,500 Onion $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Rice
Urbanization as an Opportunity for Agricultural Led-Growth 3.(a) Post-farm sections in the food system are increasingly critical.
Urbanization as an Opportunity for Agricultural Led-Growth 3.(b) Improving physical and legal infrastructure will be essential for inclusive food system-led growth.
Challenges going forward 26
Challenges going forward 1. No guarantee that future growth will include small scale producers.
Challenges going forward 2. Diversity in product quality, consistency, and traceability limits market access for small- farms.
Challenges going forward 3. Returns to scale are increasingly important in post farm elements in food production.
Thank you 30