Adapting Forestry Programs for Climate Change LSRCA Board of Directors May 25, 2018 Phil Davies, Manager, Forestry & Greenspace Services Member of Conservation Ontario
Climate Change A Big Picture - Typically discussed at a global or national level - Successful program delivery requires understanding at the watershed level 2
Downscaling Impacts at our level - What does Climate Change mean for LSRCA forestry program planning and operations? Temperature & precipitation means and extremes Growing season length, biotic interactions 3
Challenges for Planning Operations - Changes are not immediate No start or end dates - Problem is complex and variable We know the wave is coming. 4
Climate Change: A Challenge for Trees - Finely adapted to sites at all stages - Long-lived - Changing at a rapid pace Unable to migrate to keep up 5
The Research Project - Developed to inform changes in watershed afforestation & forestry programming Funded by MOECC under LSPP Promote adaptation to maintain, expand and enhance watershed tree canopy - Supports LSRCA Strategic Plan Goal 2: Develop a Climate Change Adaptation & Mitigation Strategy 6
Project Approach - Stakeholder engagement Watershed municipal forestry staff Conservation Authorities MOECC, MNRF First Nations ENGOs Nursery producers - Literature review 7
Project Outcomes - Revised species planting list Promote success of restoration projects - Adaptation Strategies for Forestry Programs Afforestation Forest management Tree risk management - Knowledge transfer Watershed & beyond 8
Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Strategies 9
Forecasted Future Conditions - Increased average air temperatures - Higher average seasonal temperatures - Fluctuations in precipitation patterns - Increase in severe weather 10
Impacts for Forests - Habitat for many tree species moving north faster than they can migrate - Extreme weather events damaging trees and increasing risk - Forest ecosystem services, biodiversity and culturally significant species affected - Natural forest successional processes altered Ecoregion 6E 1971-2000 2041 2070 (CGCM2, A2) 11
Forest Management: Strategic Adaptations - Revise management prescriptions with CC objectives - Promote regeneration of adapted species - Facilitate assisted migration - Improve stand resilience to severe weather - Plan for severe weather recovery - Protect existing forests and promote forest health - Seek opportunities to expand and connect forests 12
Impacts for Afforestation Programs Tree Planting - More challenging early stage establishment - Unpredictable spring conditions - Access to labour - Suitability and availability of plant stock - Species range shifts 13
Range Shifts: Retreating Species Species projected to no longer be climatically-suitable within decades: White spruce Balsam fir Eastern white cedar Paper birch Tamarack Trembling aspen White spruce 1971-2000 2011-2040 2041-2070 14
Range Shifts: Persisting Species Currently prevalent in our watershed, and will continue to be climatically-suitable in the future: Maple (sugar, red, silver) Oak (red, white, bur) White pine Beech Black cherry Ash Sugar maple 1971-2000 2011-2040 2041-2070 15
Range Shifts: Advancing Species New species options, which will become suitable to plant as the climate continues to warm: Hackberry Hickories Southern oaks Sycamore Tulip tree Blackgum Shagbark Hickory 1971-2000 2011-2040 2041-2070 16
Afforestation: Strategic Adaptations - Incorporate species from current & future seed zones 50:25:25 approach to plant material selection - Select species according to specific objectives - Increase species, genetic and structural diversity - Modify projects to spread risk - Prepare for earlier planting season - Increase tending activities - Learn from southern practitioners 17
Next Steps - Initiating 3 Assisted Migration Trials in 2018 Planting at 3 CAs - Sharing report with Stakeholders - Review and prioritization of Adaptation Strategies - Presentation of results at workshops & symposia 18
Adapting Forestry Programs for Climate Change Thank-you for your time today 19