ASEAN MEDIA FORUM Review of Global and Regional Food Security Situation and Future Outlook Hiroyuki Konuma FAO Assistant Director-General and Regional Representative for Asia and the Pacific Singapore, 26-27 July 2012
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91% of Asia and the Pacific s undernoulished population live in just 6 countries 91 percent of undernourished in Asia and the Pacific live in just 6 countries Philippines, 13.2, (2%) Indonesia, 29.9, (5%) Others, 49.8, (9%) Bangladesh, 41.7, (8%) India, 237.7, (44%) Pakistan, 43.4, (8%) China, 130.4, (24%) 5
Asia and the Pacific is the home of 62 percent (2/3)of world hungry population, despite remarkable economic growth 6
7 Source: ESCAP
8 Poor consumers Proportion of poor ((living less than US$ 1.25/day) in total population dropped from 50% to 22% between 2990 and 2009 in Asia However, success in economic growth did not result in alleviating hunger Inequitable distribution of benefit of economic growth Widening income disparity and inequality at both in least developed and middle income countries Micro nutrient malnutrition affecting additional two billion people, particularly children More than one billion people over weight New factor influencing hunger : Food price hike and volatility affected poor consumers who spend a large portion of income for food
Food prices are high and volatile Food prices are high and volatile (still remains 2 times high from 10 years ago)
Corn future market at Chicago Board of trade, 25 July 2012 (US$787.50) 10
wheat future market at Chicago Board of Trade, 25 July 2012 (US$ 903) 11
Proportion of undernourished population in Asia-Pacific region remains 16%,far from MDG target of 10% to be 25 20 15 10 5 achieved by 2015) 0 1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2009 2010 Proportion Source: FAO SOFI 2010
Can we produce sufficient food to meet the demand of growing future population? 13
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 World population millions Source: UN, 2011 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 14 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 developed Sub-Saharan Africa NothAfrica and the Middle East Latin America and Caribb South Asia Eastern Asia percentage annual growth rate (right scale)
Food consumption (Kcal/person/day) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1969/71 1979/81 1990/92 2005-07 2030 2050 Industrial countries Near East-North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America & Caribbean East Asia Source: Alexandratos, 2011 15
7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Urbanization Source: UN, 2011 16 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 billions Rural Urban
Changes in the composition of diets 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Subsaharan Africa 2005-07 2030 2050 Latin America and Caribbean 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2005-07 2030 2050 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Near East and North Africa 2005-07 2030 2050 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% South Asia 2005-07 2030 2050 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% East Asia 2030 2050 Roots & tubers Dairy Sugar 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Industrial countries 2005-07 Cereals Meat Veg oils Others 2005-07 2030 2050 Source: Alexandratos, 2011 17
Global production in 2050 Compared to 2005/07, the world would produce every year one more billion tons of cereals (45%) 196 more million tons of meats (76%) 713 more million tons of roots and tubers (64%) 172 more million tons of soybeans (79%) 429 more million tons of fruits (68%) 365 more million tons of vegetables (47%) 18
Past and projected increases in global production world developing countries developed countries 24 60 56 77 170 317 2005/07-2050 (projected) 1961-2005/07 (observed) 0 100 200 300 400 percent Source: Bruinsma, 2011 19
Is there enough land? 700 600 500 400 million ha Arable land in use, 2005/07 Additional land projected to be in use, 2050 300 200 100 0-100 Developed countries sub-saharan Africa Latin America Near East / North Africa South Asia East Asia Source: Bruinsma, 2011 20
Increasing water use for agriculture, which accounts 70% of total water use 21
Water is a Key Requirement for Food Production 10th New Ag International Conference and Exhibition, 28-30 March Source: 2012, Bangkok Selected Indicators, FAO -RAP 2011
Sources of production growth 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0-20.0 world developing developed Yields increases between 2005/07 and 2050 Crop intensity increases between 2005/07 and 2050 Area increase between 2005/07 and 2050 (percent) Source: Bruinsma, 2011 23
Yields need to increase over average 0.8%/year towards 2050, compared to 1.7% in past decades 4.5 4.0 4 3.5 3.5 3.0 3 2.5 2.5 2.0 2 1.5 1.5 1.0 1 0.5 0.5 0 1961/63 2005/07 2050 0.0 1961/63-2005/07 2005/07-2050 cereals (growth % per year) cereals (tons/ha) soybeans (tons/ha) soybeans (growth % per year) Source: Bruinsma, 2011 24
Uncertainties ( uncertain factors influencing future food security) Crude oil prices hike Food price volatility Impact of climate changes Bio-fuel development etc. 25
Crude oil price increased over 500% since 1999
Uncertainty: climate change worse case 2080 scenario: less harvested area, up to - 39% (World) and -29% (developing countries) up to 130 million more undernourished in S-SH Africa Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011) Source: IPCC (2007) 27
The number of natural disasters occurring worldwide has increased 400 Number of Disasters 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Africa Asia-Pacific Caribbean Europe Latin America 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 0 North America Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.
World bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production is projected to be doubled in 20 years between 2009 and 2018; increasing competition of land and water use with food production, in addition to competition of use of food grains between bio-ethanol and food/feed
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Conclusion Resources may be sufficient to produce food for 9.2 billion people, but huge investment agricultural research and infrastructure is required to increase productivity Reduce post-harvest losses and waste --access to food by the poor remains a critical issue which requires targeted approach; safety net Yields increases may be attained, but natural resources management needs to be improved substantially to counteract competition,over use,etc. Crude oil price hike, food price volatility, bio-fuel developmentandclimate changes are major sources of uncertainty 32
Everyone has a right to access to food Food is essential for our survival, stability, peace and world security Building awareness, sense of strong solidarity, help each other Sustainable consumption, reduce waste Public and private sector partnership and working together Thank you 33