DSDS Special Event by ITPS & TERI DSDS Special Event: Low Carbon Transport for Emerging Economies Global Findings for a Low Carbon Transport System in 2050 Yuki Tanaka Institution for Transport Policy Studies
Contents 1. Overview of the Low Carbon Transport Project 2. Global Scenario Image of the Future Policy Packages CO2 Emissions in 2050 3. Focus on Transport Infrastructure 4. Conclusions 2
1. Overview of the Low Carbon Transport Project DSDS Special Event by ITPS and TERI 3
A Study of Transport System in a Low Carbon Society An international scenario study project Global reduction of CO2 emissions by 0-50% from the transport sector by 2050 1 2 Support Feasibility Mechanism Identify required policies and long-term strategies for sustainable transport. Propose support mechanism for developing countries to implement policies for emission reduction. 4
CO2 Emissions Backcasting Approach Business as usual Reduction Target (A) Baseline year Target year Backcast Time 5
Reduction Targets The goal of the transport sector: To keep 0-50% of level in the future. the current emission Base year : 2000 Target year : 2050 6
Regional Reduction Targets CO2 emissions from transport in 2000-50% -0% CO2 emissions from transport in 2050 CO2 emissions from transport in 2050 [Mt-CO2] 2,000 1,000 North America Latin America Europe China India Asia 7
International Research Team UCB TRL CAI TERI Tsinghua ITPS Asia Center Univ. North / Latin American Scenario European Scenario Southeast Asian Scenario Indian Scenario Chinese Scenario Global Scenario International Association of Public Transport International Council on Clean Transportation International Energy Agency International Transport Forum / Joint Research Center Nagoya University National Institute for Environmental Studies Oxford University Transport Study Unit 8
2. Global Scenario DSDS Special Event by ITPS and TERI 9
Image of the Future (1) Main Drivers for CO2 Emissions 1. Globalization and urbanization will naturally continue to advance. 2. The economies of developing countries will continue to grow. 3. The population will also grow. 4. The oil price will rise to about twice the current price, and remain high thereafter. 10
Image of the Future (2) Trend Breaks 1. Change in environmental awareness as global warming intensifies. 2. Change in people's concept of value with regard to service. Car Ownership Information Technologies 11
Characteristics of Transport System 1. Urban Transport 2. Non-Urban Transport 3. Vehicle Technology 4. Transport-Related Technology 12
Urban Transport People commute and travel by public transport. Mode share = 70% ( like Tokyo) Shift to rail for cities > 1million Shift to bus and BRT for cities < 1million 13
Non-Urban Transport (1) Transport System in Rural Area Main transport mode for local transport = Buses, not to rail Vehicles are still important travel mode. 14
Non-Urban Transport (2) Inter-City Transport System Tele-conference, work at home, distance learning --- no need to move across cities. Adoption of the High Speed Rail Assume 13% shift from air to rail. Local consumption for local production. 15
Vehicle Technology For passenger car, EV is one of the key technology. Main vehicle technology option for rural area = Hybrid, not EV. Hybrid trucks for intercity freight traffic. 16
Transport-Related Technologies Technological innovations in aviation and shipping. Electrification of rail system. Truck Platoons. 17
5 Policy Packages 1: Information Technologies 2: Management of Vehicle Traffic 3: Promotion of Low Carbon Vehicles 4: Promotion of Public Transport 5: Freight Transport 18
Results CO2 Emissions BAU & Our Scenario Case - TTW [Mt-CO2] 12000 10000 NonUrban-NonOECD NonUrban-OECD Urban-NonOECD Urban-OECD [Mt-CO2] 12000 10000 NonUrban-NonOECD NonUrban-OECD Urban-NonOECD Urban-OECD 8000 8000 6000 6000 4000 4000 2000 0 BAU 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 0 Our Scenario 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 19
Results CO2 Emissions By Mode 12000 [Mt-CO2] 8000 Air Ship FrtRail PassRail FrtRoad PassRoad 12000 8000 Air Ship FrtRail PassRail FrtRoad PassRoad 4000 4000 0 BAU 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 Our Scenario 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20
CO2 Emissions from Transport (Global) 2000 2050 2050 2050 CO2 emission reductions Current BAU case * IEA ETP 2008 Baseline Our case 19 32 49 % % % SHIFT AVOID IMPROVE 21
Person km Required (for Passenger Railways) 2000 2050 2050 x14 Current BAU case * IEA ETP 2008 Baseline Our case more than 7,000,000,000,000 USD 22
3. Focus on Transport Infrastructure DSDS Special Event by ITPS and TERI 23
Case Study + Indian Railway Project - Freight Railway - ODA (JICA) Project CO2 emissions reduction Rough Estimation by CDM Developer Are investors willing to invest? 24
Key Factors for Investments 1 Revenue Risk Demand projections Level of fare 2 Carbon Revenue Risk of reduction in revenue Carbon price fluctuations However, carbon revenue will be very effective in terms of raising confidence February as 4, 2011 long as it is stable. 25
Controlling Revenue Risks Stage 1.Planning 2.Construction 3.Operation Measures Reduce / Remove Risks Allocate Risks to Public Sector Private Sector 26
Planning Stage Support for Planning. Finance Know-How of Planning Capacity Building 27
Construction Stage Split the Project into Segments. Construction Management. Prevent delay Efficient construction Public Funds at the Initial Stage. 28
Operation Stage Operation Management. Transport Planning. Connectivity Intermodality Revenue Guarantee. 29
4. Conclusions DSDS Special Event by ITPS and TERI 30
Conclusions (1) 1. IMPROVE + AVOID + SHIFT = All Needed. Planning is essential. 2. Long-Term Point of View. Visioning and backcasting. Policy packages and policy paths. 31
Conclusions (2) 3. SHIFT requires: Planning Remove uncertainty Private funds 4. Collaboration and support of developed countries. 32
Thank you very much for your attention! Please join our transport survey. Visit https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/ itps_survey Brochure available in this room. Contact: Yuki Tanaka (ITPS) y-tanaka@jterc.or.jp DSDS Special Event by ITPS and TERI 33