Wyoming Pipeline Authority Public Meeting. Anne Swedberg, Manager, North American Power and Gas Content

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Wyoming Pipeline Authority Public Meeting Anne Swedberg, Manager, North American Power and Gas Content 2015 2014 Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved. Benposium 2015.

Key Take-Aways US production growth outpacing demand gains; LNG and Mexico exports needed to balance market Dramatic growth in US NE affecting flow patterns across the continent West production flattening Gas pushing from East to West (displacements) Rockies gas needs new demand in the West and SW

Summer Outlook

Summer 2015 versus Summer 2014 Bcf/d 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.81 Driven by price 5.87 3.00 2.00 1.00 - (1.00) Source: BENTEK Market Call short Term NG

4.9 Bcf/d of New Pipeline Capacity Arrives in 2015 MMcf/d MMcf/d 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 REX E2W: IN-OH STATE LINE TO HAMILTON W 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Transco CS 195 South Project Added Capacity In- Service Supply Area Demand Area REX East-to-West 1200 June OH Midcon Transco SE Leidy 525 ~June PA SE TGP Niagara 158 Nov PA Canada TCO East Side 310 Nov PA NE TETCO Uniontown 425 Nov PA/WV/OH Midcon TGP Broad Run 590 Nov WV SE TETCO Open 550 Nov OH SE ANR Glenn Karn 400 Nov NE Midcon NFG Northern Access 140 Nov NE NE

Power demand in the Northeast and Southeast expected to jump 20% Bcf/d 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 Power Demand: Summer 15 vs 14 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 (0.2) (0.4)

Bcf/d Coal to gas switching 40 US Potential Coal-to-Gas Switching 35 30 25 Bentek HH Forecast: $2.55/ MMBtu 20 15 10 5 - Summer 2014 $4.19 / MMBtu Gas Price Northeast Southeast Texas Midcon Market Midcon Producing Southwest Rockies

Midcon Market to see most significant shift at price below $2.50 MMcf/d 1,200 1,000 Coal Generation at Risk Vs. Gas Price 800 600 400 200 - NE SE Texas Midcon Market Midcon Producing $4 $3.50 $3 $2.50 $2 $1.50 $1 Southwest Rockies

Incremental demand growth needed to reduce total ending inventory Bcf/d 2015 US Supply and Demand Balance 8 7 6 5 4 3 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.5 2 1 0 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 Target Season Ending Inventory (Tcf) Y-O-Y Increase in Res/Comm/Industrial Y-O-Y Increase in MX Exports Total Incremental Demand (Over 2014) Baseload Power Growth Incremental Demand Needed

All long term weather forecasts pointing towards a mild summer

The Northeast effect What has to give

Northeast Production Continues to Climb, Off-Setting Declines in Other Regions Bcf/d Bcf/d 80 70 60 Production 40% 35% 30% 50 Northeast Net flows 25% 40 15 20% 30 10 5 15% 20 10 - (5) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10% 5% 0 0% Rest of US Northeast % of Northeast

Marcellus and Utica Supply Growth Pushes Flows Back Across the Southwest & West -1.3 Bcf/d +6.0 Bcf/d -4.1 Bcf/d Net Change In Flows: 2014-2020 Annual Averages

Bcf/d Bcf/d Net Northeast flows to the Midcon Market flip Midcon Market (Season-to-date) 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) (4.0) Northeast West Canada Southeast Rockies Midcon Producing East Canada 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2.0 1.5 Midcon Producing (Season-to-date) 1.0 0.5 0.0 (0.5) (1.0) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Rockies Southeast Texas

Bcf/d Expansions on ANR and REX have Changed the Midcon supply Midwest Flows from Northeast 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) (2.0) (2.5) Midwestern Texas Gas ANR-OH REX

Bcf/d REX Receipts from the NE at all time high 1.40 REX East-to-West production receipts near max capacity 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Markwest Seneca Processing Plant Dominion East Ohio Receipts Segment Operating Capacity Eureka Hunter Gathering System Segment Design Capacity Outflows to Midcon (IN/OH to Hamilton E2W)

REX East-to-West: Targets Existing Demand in 2015 & Increasingly Targets SE Demand through 2020 Delivery Points (East-to-West) Expected Capacity (MMcf/d) ISD Peak Summer/ Winter Avg. Daily (MMcf/d) Receipt Location Delivery Location Vectren Decatur 140 -- 17/23 REX - Decatur County, IN ANR Pipeline at Shelby 1200 3Q2015 155/300 REX - Shelby County, IN Citizens Morgan 140 -- 14/16 REX Morgan County, IN PEPL Putnam 300 TBD 124/86 REX Putnam County, IN Midwestern Edgar 652 -- 120/170 REX Edgar County, IL Trunkline Douglas 400 Post 2020 8/3 REX - Douglas County, IL Ameren Moultrie 140 -- 11/14 REX - Moultrie County, IL Behind Vectren Decatur City Gates Along ANR northbound and Southbound to LA Behind Citizens City Gates Possible reversal to deliver southbound Delivers ~0.7-0.8 Bcf/d northbound towards Chicago (NE at expense of SE via Tennessee Pipeline) Delivers southbound to LNG demand Lake Charles Behind Ameren City Gates NGPL Moultrie (New null point) 1750 Q32016 60/148 REX - Moultrie County, IL Delivers to LDCs / Chicago and TxOk, South Texas, LA along Gulf Coast Mainline

Bcf Midcon storage inventories trend towards filling to 5-yr Average 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 Midcon Storage 2015 Deficit to 5-Year Avg. 5-Year Average 2014

PG&E Storage Trending Towards Reaching Capacity Bcf 300 PG&E Storage 250 200 150 100 50 Note: 2015* uses 5-year average injections; 2015** uses 5-year max rate (2011) 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 surplus to 5 yr 2013 2014 2015 Storage Capacity 2015* 2015**

SoCal Storage on Track to Surge Beyond Total Storage Capacity Bcf 180 160 140 120 100 SoCal Storage Inventory 80 60 40 20 0-20 Note: 2015* uses 5-year average injections; 2015** uses 5-year max rate (2014); 2015*** uses 5-year min rate (2013) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 surplus to 5 yr 2012 2014 2015 Storage Capacity 2015* 2015** 2015***

Hydro output in PNW falls below 5- year minimum GWh/d BPA daily hydro generation (GWh/d) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5-yr range 2014 2015

PNW Power Burn Likely to Set New High Due to Poor Hydro Outlook MMcf/d 1,200 PNW Power Burn 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5-year range 2014 2015 Forecast

Bcf/d Southwest and Texas Production Feeding the West 16.0 MidCon/Southwest Production 14.0 Decreases (0.6) 12.0 10.0 Increases 0.7 8.0 6.0 4.0 Decreases (0.1) 2.0 0.0 Anadarko Permian San Juan

Southwest Demand Expectations

Bcf/d Net Change in Southwest Natural Gas Fundamentals from 2014 to 2020 2.0 1.5 2014-2020 Fundamentals 1.8 Bcf/d of Inflows Required to Balance 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 (0.5) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) 0.0 Source: BENTEK Cell Model

Southwest Will Lead Demand Gains Across the Western US Bcf/d 12 California/Southwest Demand Total Demand 2020: 9.2 Bcf/d + 0.9 Bcf/d above 2015 10 8 6 4 2 0 Power ResComm Industrial Source: BENTEK Cell Model Power 2020: 4.0 Bcf/d + 0.5 Bcf/d above 20153

Production Outlook for the West

Bcf/d West Production continues downward trend since 2009, ROX experiences slight increase 15.0 14.6 Rockies leading production declines 12.0 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.3 12.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 9.0 6.0 9.8 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.5 8.4 8.6 3.0 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Rockies CA/Southwest

DJ Production Increase Offset by Declines in Other Rockies Plays Bcf/d 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Dry Plays Decline, Wet Plays Offset with Growth Other down by 0.2 Bcf/d Uinta down 0.1 Bcf/d PRB down by 0.2 Bcf/d Piceance down by 0.2 Bcf/d GRO down 0.3 Bcf/d DJ up 0.2 Bcf/d Denver-Julesburg Green River-Overthrust Piceance Powder River Uinta Other Forecast

Longer term outlook

Total Supply Production Imports from Canada LNG Demand from Power ResComm Demand Industrial Demand Exports to Mexico LNG Exports Pipe Loss Total Demand Bcf/d Incremental Change 2014 v. 2020 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0 20.4 22.3 (1.8) 2014-2020 Fundamentals (0.1) 6.0 12.9 Bcf/d Exports Required (0.5) 2.5 2.4 10.5 0.2 21.1-10.0 Source: BENTEK Cell Model

Bcf/d Northeast Continues to Drive Growth 1/1/2009 8/1/2009 3/1/2010 10/1/2010 5/1/2011 12/1/2011 7/1/2012 2/1/2013 9/1/2013 4/1/2014 11/1/2014 6/1/2015 1/1/2016 8/1/2016 3/1/2017 10/1/2017 5/1/2018 12/1/2018 7/1/2019 2/1/2020 9/1/2020 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Texas+Southeast+Midcon Southwest+Rockies Northeast+Midwest Source: Bentek CellCAST

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Bcf/d The Supply & Demand Balance 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 Production Demand Net imports Source: Bentek CellCAST

Key Takeaways US production growth outpacing demand gains; LNG and Mexico exports needed to balance market Dramatic growth in US NE affecting flow patterns across the continent West production flattening Gas pushing from East to West (displacements) Rockies gas needs new demand in the West and SW

Q&A Anne Swedberg, Manager, North American Gas and Power Content aswedberg@bentekenergy.com 2013 Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved.