Modelling impacts of changes to energy standards in Scottish building regulations

Modelling impacts of changes to energy standards in Scottish building regulations

The Sullivan Report Key recommendations Research CO 2 emissions from new buildings 1990 : 2008 Lifecycle costs of changes to CO 2 emissions standard Lifecycle analysis of embodied CO 2 and emissions Heat supply options assessment SAP, SBEM SAP, SBEM and DSM + cost modelling SimaPro v 7.0.2, SAP and DSM MS Excel, custom

International panel appointed by Scottish Ministers chaired by Lynne Sullivan The Sullivan Report December 2007 56 recommendations 9 workstreams New build, existing Domestic, non-domestic Design, construction, performance Costings

Sullivan report recommendations for new build staged standards Reductions in CO2 emissions beyond 2007 Technical Handbooks 2010 Low carbon 2013 Very low carbon 2016 / 17 Zero carbon, if practical 2030 Total life zero carbon Domestic Non-domestic 30% 50% 60% 75% 100% 100% (regulated uses)?

CO 2 emissions from new buildings 1990 baseline Consultation proposal for 2010: 30% better than 2007 Technical Handbooks 105.2 tonnes 2.7 tonnes 3.0 tonnes 3.9 tonnes 3.5 tonnes 6.3 tonnes CO2 CO2 emissions relative relative to to 1990 1990 baseline buildings 6.3 tonnes

Cost impacts of changes to energy standards in 2010 Non-Domestic Davis Langdon LLP with Faber Maunsell Primary school 4,466 m 2 10m City centre offices 12,236 m 2 30m Secondary school 11,193 m 2 24m Retail warehouse 4,756 m 2 5m www.sbsa.gov.uk/research/summ_nd_energ_2010.htm

Study methodology Created energy models using recent projects in Scotland Proposed two levels of fabric upgrades / energy efficiency Modelled low carbon technologies to reduce emissions: Wind Site-side turbines and roof-top units Sun Solar thermal hot water and Photovoltaics Ground source heat pumps Biomass boilers Estimated capital and operational savings with payback periods

Energy efficiency scenarios Element Baseline Intermediate Advanced U-values (W/m²K) Roof 0.25 0.15 0.10 Wall 0.30 0.25 0.15 Floor 0.25 0.20 0.10 Windows, doors, rooflights 2.20 1.60 1.20 Air permeability (m³/(h.m²) @ 50Pa) 10 7 3 Solar shading (effective g-value) 0.7 0.5 0.5 Heating - gas fired (Sη & delivery η) (%) 88 & 95 90 & 95 92 & 95 Cooling - electric (EER & delivery η (%)) 3 & 90 3.5 & 90 4 & 90 Lighting (W/m²/100 lux): Primary school Secondary school City centre office Retail warehouse Ventilation Specific Fan Power (W/l/s): Schools Office & retail warehouse 3.2 3.1 2.8 3.9 2.5 2.25 2.25 2.5 Hot Water gas indirect (Sη & delivery η) (%) 85 90 & 85 92 & 85 Power Factor Correction 0.95+ 0.95+ 0.95+ Lighting Controls - MS DD & MS BMS Controls - AM&T+A AM&T+A 2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2 2 2 2 2.5 2.5

Primary school, 9,925,271: CO2 emissions / on-costs 100 Tonnes CO2 % on-costs 10 90 80 70 Baseline 94.1 tonnes CO2 59.3 = 37% reduction 47.1 = 50% reduction Intermediate energy efficiency + 119 kw = 50% CO 2 reduction Additional cost 4.9% 9 8 7 60 37% 6 50 50% 5 40 4 30 3 20 2 10 1 0 130 208 kw 148 kw 208 biomass kw biomass = 50% CO 2 reduction Additional cost 1.9% Baseline 340 kw biomass + 50 kw 340 kw biomass + 130 m2 PV Advanced EE only Advanced energy efficiency Int'mediate Int'mediate Int'mediate Advanced Advanced 119 kw 221 m2 PV 198 kw 20 kw 58 kw GSHP GSHP + 58 kw GSHP + 3 m2 PV = 50% CO 2 reduction Additional cost 5.2% Advanced 205 kw biomass 0

Payback periods: Primary school Annual fuel price inflation RPI + 3% RPI + 5% RPI + 10% RPI + 15% 25A Intermediate no LCE 34 24 25B/E no upgrade Biomass / GSHP 25C no upgrade Large 45 23 18 25D Intermediate PV 35 24 37A Advanced no LCE 32 23 37B no upgrade Biomass 37C no upgrade Large 45 23 17 37D Intermediate PV 38 25 37E Intermediate GSHP 49 33 50A no upgrade Biomass 50B Intermediate Large 59 30 21 50C Intermediate GSHP + small 55 36 50D Advanced Small + PV 60 31 22 50E Advanced GSHP 46 31

Secondary school, 24,401,048: CO2 emissions / on-costs 300 Tonnes CO2 % on-costs 7 250 200 Baseline 269.7 tonnes CO2 169.9 = 37% reduction 134.9 = 50% reduction 6 5 37% 4 150 50% 3 100 2 50 1 0 Baseline 85 kw 112 kw 311 kw biomass 112 kw = 50% CO 2 reduction Additional cost 0.8% 173 kw 394 kw biomass + 20 kw Int'mediate 53 m2 solar HW + 20 kw 437 kw biomass + 123 m2 PV 437 kw biomass + 76 kw 167 m2 solar HW + 437 m2 GSHP Advanced Advanced Advanced 78 m2 solar HW 190 m2 solar HW + 423 kw GSHP + 20 kw + 116 m2 PV 423 kw biomass + 530 m2 PV Advanced energy efficiency + 78m2 solar HW = 50% CO 2 reduction Additional cost 3.2% 0

Payback periods: Secondary school Annual fuel price inflation RPI + 3% RPI + 5% RPI + 10% RPI + 15% 25A Intermediate no LCE 38 23 17 25/37B no upgrade Biomass 25C no upgrade Large 10 (12 RPI) 9 8 7 25D no upgrade Solar HW + PV 36 22 16 13 25E no upgrade Small + solar HW 21 18 14 11 37A Advanced no LCE 40 23 18 37C no upgrade Large 10 (11 RPI) 9 8 7 37D no upgrade GSHP + solar HW 47 32 37E no upgrade Small + solar HW 47 33 20 16 50A no upgrade Large 9(11RPI) 9 7 7 50B/C no upgrade Biomass + small / PV 50D Advanced Solar HW 59 37 22 17 50E Intermediate Small + solar HW 44 31 19 15

City centre office, 29,905,117: CO2 emissions / on-costs 400 350 300 250 Tonnes CO2 Baseline 366.1 tonnes CO2 274.6 = 25% reduction 230.6 = 37% reduction 25% 183.1 = 50% reduction 37% % on-costs 6 5 4 200 50% 3 150 2 100 50 0 Baseline Int'mediate Int'mediate 179 kw biomass 140 m2 PV + 12 kw + 30 m2 solar HW Advanced EE only Int'mediate 248 kw GSHP + 12 kw Advanced energy efficiency PLUS 494m 2 PV + 209kW biomass + 12kW + 30m 2 solar HW (maximum capacity, all LCE) = 42% CO 2 reduction Advanced 286 m2 PV + 18 kw CHP + 12 kw Advanced 209 kw biomass + 162 m2 PV + 12 kw Advanced 266 m2 PV + 209 kw GSHP + 12 kw 44.1% delivered energy saving Additional cost 5.9% Advanced 494 m2 PV + 209 kw biomass + 12 kw + 30 m2 solar HW 1 0

Payback periods: City centre office Energy efficiency Low carbon equipment Annual fuel price inflation RPI + 3% RPI + 5% RPI + 10% RPI + 15% 25A Advanced no LCE 49 27 19 25B Intermediate Biomass 34 23 25C Intermediate Micro, solar HW, PV 53 28 20 25D Intermediate Micro, GSHP 32 22 25E Intermediate Micro, CHP 33 23 37A Advanced Micro, CHP, PV 60 30 21 37B/C Advanced 42 Advanced Micro, Biomass or GSHP, PV Micro, Biomass, Solar HW, PV 32 22 38 27

Energy consumption breakdown (regulated energy uses) Heating Cooling Auxilliary Primary school Secondary school City centre office Retail warehouse Lighting DHW Total MWh 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100

City centre office: architectural strategies / services efficiencies etc 400 Tonnes CO2 % on-costs 3.5 350 3.0 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 25% 37% 50% Passive chilled beams Reduced glazing Highly efficient lighting = 31% CO 2 reduction 27% delivered energy saving Additional cost 0.4% Baseline S1 S2 S3 S5 S9 S4 S7 S11 S6 S8 S10 S12 Passive chilled beams and reduced glazing PLUS highly efficient lighting = 31.2% fewer emissions, Passive chilled beams Reduced glazing Highly efficient lighting Advanced plant efficiencies + 380 kw biomass heating = 50% CO 2 reduction Passive chilled beams and reduced 38% delivered energy saving glazing PLUS highly efficient lighting, Additional cost 1.9% advanced plant efficiencies, PLUS 380 kw biomass heating = 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Retail warehouse, 5,447,779: CO2 emissions / on-costs 350 300 250 Tonnes CO2 25% Baseline 328.4 tonnes CO2 246.3 = 25% 206.9 = 37% reduction 164.2 = 50% reduction % on-costs 14 12 10 200 37% 8 50% 150 6 100 50 0 Baseline Int'mediate EE only Advanced EE only Int'mediate5 2 m2 PV + 51 kw biomass Int'mediate 90 kw + 51 kw biomass Advanced energy efficiency 48 kw biomass heating + 284 m 2 PV / 166 kw = 50% CO 2 reduction 47-49% delivered energy savings Additional cost 11.7 11.8% Int'mediate 152 m2 PV + 8 m2 solar HW Advanced 284 m2 PV + 48 kw biomass Advanced 166 kw + 48 kw biomass Advanced 353 m2 PV + 8 m2 solar HW Advanced 327 m2 PV + 48 kw GSHP 4 2 0

Payback periods: Retail warehouse 25A Intermediate no LCE 25B no upgrade 37A Advanced no LCE Annual fuel price inflation RPI + 3% RPI + 5% RPI + 10% RPI + 15% Biomass + Large + PV 37B Intermediate Solar HW + PV 8 (9 RPI) 7 6 6 38 25 12 (15 RPI) 21 (50 RPI) 11 9 8 18 13 11 37C Intermediate Biomass + Large 30 21 14 11 37D Intermediate GSHP + PV 24 20 14 12 37E Intermediate Biomass + PV 32 21 14 11 50A Advanced Biomass + PV 43 30 17 13 50B Advanced Solar HW + PV 24 20 15 12 50C Advanced GSHP + PV 32 21 15 12 50D Advanced Biomass + Large 36 24 16 13 50E Advanced GSHP + Large 32 22 15 12

Retail warehouse: architectural strategies / services efficiencies etc Highly efficient luminaires + daylight dimming = 37% CO2 reduction 32% delivered energy saving Additional cost 1.3% Ultra efficient luminaires + daylight dimming + 108 kw = 50% CO2 reduction 42% delivered energy saving Additional cost 5.4%

Energy performance modelling: Differences between DSM and SBEM Comparison of DSM and SBEM results for CO 2 emissions TER kgco 2 /m 2 / annum Primary school Secondary school Office building Retail warehouse DSM results 19.91 23.11 32.60 63.86 SBEM results 29.69 32.69 48.97 76.70 DSM - SBEM -9.79-9.58-16.37-12.84 Impact on CO 2 emissions of energy efficiency upgrades Intermediate energy efficiency upgrade Advanced energy efficiency upgrade DSM modelling SBEM modelling DSM modelling SBEM modelling 22.9% 24.1% 19.5% 31.8% 4.3% 6.4% 23.6% 26.8% 43.0% 40.2% 27.6% 43.6% 22.9% 24.1% 36.1% 37.4%

Energy performance modelling: differences in results using DSM and SBEM Energy use calculations: SBEM monthly, DSM hourly Lighting energy use assumptions: - SBEM varies energy use with floor area, areas of ows and rooflights (assumes people turn their lights off in high levels of natural daylight) - allowance for reduction in lighting due to daylight and motion sensing switching and controls Inputs Different levels of input data, different ways to input information + Differences between buildings Differences in the energy load profiles of the buildings studied (office has higher level of cooling and auxiliary energy than the other buildings studied)

Energy performance modelling: DSM and SBEM baselines CO 2 reductions Additional capital costs of cheapest improvement scenarios to achieve specified levels of CO 2 reductions 25% 0.5-3.4% 30% 0.8-3.9% 37% 1.2-5.0% 50% 1.9-5.2% 80% 4.0-8.9% DSM baseline buildings DSM modelling SBEM baseline buildings SBEM modelling Primary Secondary Office Retail Primary Secondary Office Retail 0.4-0.8% 0.5-1.8% 0.6-2.1% 0.8-2.5% 1.2-6.6% 2.9-3.3% 3.4-4.0% 3.5-5.0% 2.6 % 1.0-1.8% 2.6 % 1.2-3.7% 5.7-8.0% 5.7% 11.7-12.6% 1.5-3.7% 2.0-6.3%?? 3.3-4.1% 0.7-1.4% 0.9-2.6% 1.1-2.9% 1.4-3.8% 2.1-13.0% 1.1-2.5% 1.4-3.3% 1.8-3.3% 3.8-5.2% 2.2 2.6 % 2.5-5.0% 3.0-5.7% 3.8 7.3 %??

Pilot project: Embodied CO 2 and energy paybacks Davis Langdon LLP

Pilot project: Embodied CO 2 and energy paybacks 1 SELECT BASELINES - City centre office; 2 houses, 1 flat, 2007 energy standards - Davis Langdon materials database (Bath ICE, own data) - SimaPro v 7.0.2 (LCA software), - Baseline CO 2 footprint embodied CO 2, CO 2 emissions 2 APPLY IMPROVEMENT SCENARIOS - Energy efficiency measures (insulation, airtightness, boiler efficiency, lighting) + low carbon equipment; or Architectural measures + services efficiencies - Embodied CO 2 of improvement scenarios 3 EVALUATE IMPACTS Assumed 60 years occupancy, snapshot at 35 years Embodied CO 2 / CO 2 emissions reductions = CO 2 payback periods

Embodied CO2: city centre office building Total embodied CO2: 9,354 Tonnes Total annual emissions: 366 Tonnes Windows and external doors, 423 Ceiling finishes, 266 Roof, 262 Frame, 2,490 M&E Services, 1793 Substructures, 1,359 Upper floors, 1,292 Floor finishes, 966 Internal walls/partitions and doors, 241 External walls, 205 Stairs, 32 Wall finishes, 25

Embodied CO2: improvement scenarios 2.45 yrs 2.38 yrs 0 yrs

Assessment of the viability of District Heating / CHP Parsons Brinckerhoff Energy Systems

Heat Supply Options Assessment tool: inputs

Heat Supply Options Assessment tool: example results

Research and consultations: www.sbsa.gov.uk linda.sheridan@scotland.gsi.gov.uk