Post-2020 Climate Change Mitigation Commitments Gregory Briner, OECD gregory.briner@oecd.org Based on the draft paper Establishing and Understanding Post-2020 Climate Change Mitigation Commitments by Gregory Briner and Andrew Prag CCXG Global Forum 18 September 2013 www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg
Outline Status of the ADP negotiations The 2020 pledges and multiple dimensions of mitigation commitments Concept of bounded flexibility for commitments Information needed exante to understand commitments 2
ADP: re-energising the climate negotiations? ADP Source: Wikipedia 3 Source: World Property Channel
Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2 -eq) A snapshot of the 2020 pledges 10,000 Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to population in 2010. Russia 1,000 100 Australia US Japan Germany No pledge Intensity goal Spain BAU goal Poland Other goal 10 1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 Climate GDP Change in 2010 (billion Expert 2005 USD, Group PPP) 4 Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011).
Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2 -eq) A snapshot of the 2020 pledges 10,000 Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to population in 2010. India Russia China 1,000 100 Australia US Japan Germany No pledge Intensity Intensity goal goal Spain BAU goal Poland Other goal 10 1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 Climate GDP Change in 2010 (billion Expert 2005 USD, Group PPP) 4 Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011).
Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2 -eq) A snapshot of the 2020 pledges 10,000 1,000 100 Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to population in 2010. Indonesia Australia South Africa India Russia Brazil Poland China Japan Germany Mexico US Republic of Korea Spain No pledge Intensity Intensity goal goal Reduction from BAU BAU goal Other goal 10 1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 Climate GDP Change in 2010 (billion Expert 2005 USD, Group PPP) 4 Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011).
Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2 -eq) A snapshot of the 2020 pledges 10,000 1,000 100 Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to population in 2010. Tanzania Togo Ethiopia Indonesia Australia South Africa India Russia Brazil Poland Morocco China Japan Germany Mexico US Republic of Korea Spain No pledge Intensity Intensity goal goal Reduction from BAU BAU goal Other goal 10 Eritrea Costa Rica 1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 Climate GDP Change in 2010 (billion Expert 2005 USD, Group PPP) 4 Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011).
Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2 -eq) A snapshot of the 2020 pledges 10,000 1,000 100 10 Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to population in 2010. Eritrea Tanzania Togo Ethiopia Indonesia Australia Iran Saudi Arabia Thailand South Africa Costa Rica India Russia Brazil Morocco China Japan Germany Mexico US Republic of Korea Spain Turkey Poland Myanmar No pledge Intensity goal Intensity goal Reduction from BAU BAU goal Other goal No pledge 1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 Climate GDP Change in 2010 (billion Expert 2005 USD, Group PPP) 4 Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011).
Source: Educade.org A spectrum of commitments? 5
Mitigation commitments can have multiple dimensions Choice of time frame Headline number Coverage of sectors Choice of base year Coverage of gases 6 Use of units from market mechanisms Treatment of LULUCF Climate Change sources Expert and sinks Group Choice of GWPs or other GHG-equivalence metric
Bounded flexibility 7 Time frame GWP values Commitments relative to BAU? Source: HDNaturePictures.com
Ex-ante clarity of commitments Intensity goal Reduction from BAU Time frame Base year GWPs or other GHG-equivalence metric Coverage of gases and sectors LULUCF accounting Units from market mechanisms BAU emissions (i.e. without action) Expected future emissions (i.e. with action) GDP projections Definition of carbon neutrality Conditions attached Explanation of ambition (science, equity) Source of finance and domestic policies Other goal 8
Key questions What types of mitigation commitments could be proposed for the 2015 agreement? Is the concept of bounded flexibility useful for proposing commitments? What other information would be needed to understand the different types of commitments put forward, and what are the next steps? 9