CO 2 equivalent with Advanced High-Strength Steels Dr. Roland Geyer The Donald Bren School of Environmental Science and Management University of California at Santa Barbara
Outline Outline Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Designing s for GHG Emission Reductions The Impact of Materials on Life Cycle Emissions Summary
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change
The Greenhouse Effect
Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration 370 ppm 280 ppm
The Main Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) Substance Global Warming Potential Atmospheric Lifetime (GWP 100 in kg CO 2 eq) (years) Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) 1 50-200 Methane (CH 4 ) 21 9-15 Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) 310 120 CFC-12 (CCl 2 F 2 ) 6,200-7,100 102 HCFC-22 (CHClF 2 ) 1,300-1,400 12 Perfluoromethane (CF 4 ) 6,500 50,000 Perfluoroethane (C 2 F 6 ) 9,200 10,000 Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF 6 ) 23,900 3,200 Source: IPPC Radiative Forcing Report, 1996
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions US Greenhouse Gas Emission by Sector (in million metric tons) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Electric Power Industry Transportation Industry Agriculture Commercial Residential 0 1990 1995 2000 Source: US Emission Inventory 2005, EPA
Designing s for GHG Emission Reductions
Climate Change and Design Kyoto Protocol Objective: Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere 1997: Kyoto Protocol is negotiated in Japan February 16, 2005: Kyoto Protocol comes into force As of January 2006: 160 nations have ratified the agreement European Union Goal: Average of 120 g CO 2 eq per km driven for passenger cars by 2010 1999/2000: Negotiated self-commitments of vehicle manufacturers California - Assembly Bill 1493 Goal: Average of 205 g CO 2 eq per mile driven for passenger cars by 2016 2002: AB 1493 passes Assembly and Senate 2004: AB 1493 is approved by Governor New York State June 2005: Official proposal to adopt California s regulation
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Greenhouse Gases Materials Production Manufacturing Use Disposal Product Life Cycle
Life Cycle Emissions of s (ICEV) Typical Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of a ICE Passenger Car 10.3 % 4.3 % 85.3 % 0.1 % Materials production manufacturing use (incl. upstream fuel) disposal 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Development Bank of Japan, 2004
Life Cycle Emissions of s (HEV) Typical Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of a Hybrid Passenger Car 14.7 % 5.7 % 79.5 % 0.1 % Materials production manufacturing use (incl. upstream fuel) disposal 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Own calculations
The Impact of Material Choice on Life Cycle GHG Emissions
Impact of Material Choice on Life Cycle Emissions Greenhouse Gases Materials Production Manufacturing Use Disposal Material Choice
Impact of Material Choice on Materials Production Material Current Average GHG Emissions (in kg CO 2 eq / kg of material) Primary Production Secondary Production Steel 2.3 2.7 0.7 1.0 AHSS 2.3 2.7 0.7 1.0 Aluminum 13.9 15.5 1.4 2.0 Materials Production Manufacturing Use Disposal Source: IISI, IAI Material Choice
Impact of Material Choice on Manufacturing Material All Estimates for Material in Body-in-White Applications Recycled Content Weight Savings Potential Steel 11 % 15 % AHSS 11 % 15 % ~ 25 % Aluminum 0 % 11 % ~ 40 % Materials Production Manufacturing Use Disposal Material Choice
Parameter Impact of Material Choice on Use Value Range Fuel Savings per Weight Savings *) (in l/100km per 100kg saved) 0.11 0.48 (in % fuel savings per 10 % weight savings) 1.9 8.4 Total vehicle mileage (used in previous studies) 100,000 291,543 km 62,150 181,195 miles Materials Production Manufacturing Use Disposal *) Source: fka Material Choice
Impact of Material Choice on Disposal Material Recycling rate Scrap mainly used for Market Size Steel 90 96 % Long Products and Growing AHSS 90 96 % Engineering Steels Growing Aluminum 83 90 % Castings Limited Materials Production Manufacturing Use Disposal Material Choice
Summary
Summary Automotive Advanced High-Strength Steel from a Greenhouse Gas Perspective Low GHG emissions are an important criterion for vehicle design. A life cycle perspective is required to assess the net impact of design changes on total GHG emissions. The change from steel to AHSS in BIW applications is a no-regret decision since there are no significant trade-offs. The change from steel to aluminum in BIW applications involves significant emission trade-offs. Emission trade-offs from material choice need to be carefully quantified. Some issues still have large uncertainties. Be cautious about hasty claims.