Alberta Short-Term Employment Forecast Tool

Alberta Short-Term Employment Forecast Tool

Short-Term Employment Forecast (STEF) Tool Objectives To develop evidence-based methodology to produce a tool to support short-term planning and development of program strategies for Alberta Employment and Immigration (E&I), the Government of Alberta, and the public. To identify potential imbalances in the labour market in the near future, and allow decision makers to take action to prevent or ease those imbalances. To ensure consistency in data utilization and interpretation within E&I. hodology The STEF tool approach is evidence-based analysis that examines short-term labour market trends and conditions. The methodology is based on robust labour-market research and intelligence. This labour-market intelligence incorporates multiple quantitative and qualitative evidence from a variety of sources: economic indicators, administrative data, and insight from industry sectors. The methodology for the STEF tool includes seven variables: six quantitative and one qualitative. Existing historical data sets for six quantitative variables and data sets and information for several qualitative variables were summarized in one. The following chart shows what the methodology includes. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Future Employment Growth Rate Historical Employment Growth Rate Unemployment Rate Labour Market Opinions Issued Ratio of EI Regular Beneficiaries to Rate Participation Rate Quantitative variables STEF METHODOLOGY 7 Qualitative variable Industry Environmental Scan Vacancy Rates Wage & Salary Surveys JOBBANK Job Postings AINP Nominations Issued The data for 208 occupations, identified by the 4-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes, were collected, analyzed, calculated and summarised. 2

In order to incorporate these occupations in the table, which would contain logical and comparable values and would be easy to read and interpret, thresholds were determined for each variable. Each occupation was assessed against the thresholds. The findings of pilot project (2009-2010) were shared with E&I staff, other GoA departments, industry partners and stakeholders. Their feedback was summarized, analyzed and applied to improve the methodology, data, results, and the predictive power. Results The final STEF results include the list of 208 occupations sorted by the number of variables thresholds met. Occupations that met less than 3 variables thresholds have are not commented on. These are the final results: 16 occupations met six variables, meaning there is a significant likelihood these occupations will be in demand in the next three years, 48 occupations that met only five variables, meaning there is a likelihood these occupations will be in demand, 55 occupations that meet only four variables, 47 occupations that meet only three variables, meaning it is unlikely these occupations are going to be in demand in the next three years. Attached are the STEF results for 2011 2013. Occupations in demand should have met at least five out of seven variables thresholds. Testing of the Results To determine the predictive power of the STEF results and to ensure that this tool would be applicable, the test was conducted by comparing the results against the Unemployment Rate for 2010, for all occupations on the STEF list. The following are results of that test: Eleven occupations, out of 16 that met six out of the seven indicators, had unemployment rates below 3%, so the STEF results predictive power was at 68.8%. Twenty nine out of 48 occupations that met five out of the seven indicators, had unemployment rates below 3%, showing STEF result s predictive power at 60.4%. Twenty three occupations out of 55, that met four out of the seven indicators, had unemployment rates below 3%, so the STEF results predictive power was at 41.8%. Twenty occupations out of 47, that met three out of the seven indicators, had unemployment rates below 3%, which indicated STEF results predictive power at 42.6%. *For more information on thresholds please email lfs.analyst@gov.ab.ca 3

0621 A211 - Retail Trade Managers 6 68.8% 37,300 0631 A221 - Restaurant & Food Service Managers 6 14,900 2132 C032 - Mechanical Engineers 6 5,400 2145 C045 - Petroleum Engineers 6 13,200 2174 C074 - Computer Programmers & Interactive Media Developers 6 12,200 2175 C075 - Web Designers & Developers 6 1,600 3112 D012 - General Practitioners & Family Physicians 6 5,000 3152 D112 - Registered Nurses 6 35,600 6211 G011 - Retail Trade Supervisors 6 19,700 6212 G012 - Food Service Supervisors 6 6,200 6221 G121 - Technical Sales Specialists, Wholesale Trade 6 14,200 6271 G911 - Hairstylists & Barbers 6 10,000 6482 G922 - Estheticians, Electrologists & Related Occupations 6 4,600 7311 H411 - Construction Millwrights & Ind. Mechanics (except textile) 6 9,200 7312 H412 - Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics 6 11,500 7322 H422 - Motor Vehicle Body Repairers 6 5,900 0013 A013 - Senior Managers-Financial, Communic. & Other Bus Ser. 5 60.4% 3,000 0211 A121 - Engineering Managers 5 2,600 0213 A122 - Computer & Information Systems Managers 5 5,500 0721 A141 - Facility Operation & Maintenance Managers 5 4,000 0711 A371 - Construction Managers 5 9,200 0911 A391 - Manufacturing Managers 5 4,900 1111 B011 - Financial Auditors & Accountants 5 25,100 1114 B014 - Other Financial Officers 5 9,600 1122 B022 - Professional Occupations in Bus Serv. to Management 5 14,500 1232 B112 - Loan Officers 5 6,600 1233 B113 - Insurance Adjusters & Claims Examiners 5 2,300 1212 B412 - Supervisors, Finance & Insurance Clerks 5 4,600 2131 C031 - Civil Engineers 5 6,700 2171 C071 - Information Systems Analysts & Consultants 5 17,800 2242 C142 - Electronic Service Tech. (Household & Bus Equipment) 5 8,300 2243 C143 - Industrial Instrument Technicians & Mechanics 5 3,300 2261 C161 - Nondestructive Testers & Inspectors 5 2,700 2271 C171 - Air Pilots, Flight Engineers & Flying Instructors 5 2,200 2281 C181 - Computer and Network Operators and Web Technicians 5 4,600 2282 C182 - User Support Technicians 5 4,900 3111 D011 - Specialist Physicians 5 1,900 3131 D031 - Pharmacists 5 1,700 3233 D233 - Licensed Practical Nurses 5 7,700 3413 D312 - Nurse Aides & Orderlies 5 21,100 4163 E033 Ec. Dev. Officers & Marketing Researchers & Consult. 5 2,900 4121 E111 - University Professors 5 5,600 4131 E121 - College & Other Vocational Instructors 5 10,900 4211 E211 - Paralegal & Related Occupations 5 7,700 5241 F141 - Graphic Designers & Illustrating Artists 5 7,000 6411 G111 - Sales Representatives, Wholesale Trade (Non-Tech.) 5 25,800 4

6231 G131 - Insurance Agents & Brokers 5 7,100 6232 G132 - Real Estate Agents & Salespersons 5 8,100 6431 G711 - Travel Counsellors 5 2,500 6435 G715 - Hotel Front Desk Clerks 5 4,800 6474 G814 - Babysitters, Nannies & Parents' Helpers 5 8,200 6661 G931 - Light Duty Cleaners 5 21,800 7216 H016 - Contractors & Supervisors, Mechanic Trades 5 9,100 7219 H019 - Contractors & Supervisors, Other Construction Trades, Installers, Repairers & Servicers 5 12,900 7251 H111 - Plumbers 5 8,100 7282 H132 - Cement Finishers 5 2,300 7291 H141 - Roofers & Shinglers 5 1,900 7242 H212 - Industrial Electricians 5 4,400 7321 H421 - Motor Vehicle Mechanics, Technicians & Mech Repairers 5 20,300 7381 H521 - Printing Press Operators 5 2,400 7443 H533 - Automotive Mechanical Installers & Servicers 5 2,700 7413 H713 - Taxi & Limousine Drivers & Chauffeurs 5 6,000 8251 I011 - Farmers & Farm Managers 5 33,900 8255 I015 - Landscaping & Grounds Mainten. Contract & Managers 5 4,000 0122 A302 - Banking, Credit & Other Investment Managers 4 41.8% 4,300 0713 A373 - Transportation Managers 4 4,100 1112 B012 - Financial & Investment Analysts 4 2,100 1243 B213 - Medical Secretaries 4 2,600 1221 B311 - Administrative Officers 4 28,100 1224 B314 - Property Administrators 4 3,500 1211 B411 - Supervisors, General Office & Admin. Support Clerks 4 3,600 1215 B415 - Supervisors, Recording, Distributing & Scheduling Occup 4 7,900 1431 B531 - Accounting & Related Clerks 4 19,800 1433 B533 - Tellers, Financial Services 4 11,700 1434 B534 - Banking, Insurance & Other Financial Clerks 4 4,700 1435 B535 - Collectors 4 1,700 1461 B561 - Mail, Postal & Related Clerks 4 4,500 1462 B562 - Letter Carriers 4 3,700 2148 C048 - Other Professional Engineers, n.e.c. 4 4,000 2172 C072 - Database Analysts & Data Administrators 4 2,700 2241 C141 - Electrical & Electronics Eng. Technologists & Techs 4 1,800 3212 D212 - Medical Laboratory Technicians 4 4,800 3235 D235 - Other Technical Occupations in Therapy & Assessment 4 1,800 4112 E012 - Lawyers and Quebec Notaries 4 6,600 4152 E022 - Social Workers 4 4,400 4154 E024 - Ministers of Religion 4 3,800 4161 E031 - Natural & Appl Science Policy Researchers, Consult & Prog Offic. 4 5,600 4166 E035 Educ. Policy Researchers, Consultants & Prog. Officers 4 3,200 4142 E132 - Elementary School & Kindergarten Teachers 4 15,900 4212 E212 - Community & Social Service Workers 4 12,200 4214 E217 - Early Childhood Educators and Assistants 4 20,500 5121 F021 - Writers 4 1,600 5254 F154 - Program Leaders & Instructors in Recreation & Sport 4 8,600 5

6216 G016 - Other Service Supervisors 4 4,000 6233 G133 - Retail & Wholesale Buyers 4 5,100 6421 G211 - Retail Salespersons & Sales Clerks 4 69,900 6611 G311 - Cashiers 4 35,100 6241 G411 - Chefs 4 4,800 6261 G611 - Police Officers (except Commissioned) 4 7,800 6462 G622 - Correctional Service Officers 4 2,500 6651 G631 - Security Guards & Related Occupations 4 7,400 6432 G712 - Pursers & Flight Attendants 4 1,500 6471 G811 - Visiting Homemakers, Housekeepers & Related Occup. 4 7,500 6252 G942 - Bakers 4 5,300 6641 G961 - Food Counter Attendants, Kitch. Helpers & Related Occ. 4 36,000 7212 H012 - Contractors & Superv., Electr. Trades & Telecomm. Occ. 4 5,000 7214 H014 - Contractors & Superv, al Forming, Shaping & Erecting Trades 4 2,000 7222 H022 - Supervisors, Motor Transport & Other Ground Transit Operators 4 6,100 7271 H121 - Carpenters 4 17,200 7284 H134 - Plasterers, Drywall Installers & Finishers, & Lathers 4 7,400 7295 H145 - Floor Covering Installers 4 2,600 7265 H326 - Welders & Related machine Operators 4 15,100 7313 H413 - Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Mechanics 4 2,000 7411 H711 - Truck Drivers 4 40,800 7414 H714 - Delivery Drivers 4 5,800 9212 J012 - Supervisors, Petroleum, Gas & Chemical Processing & Utilities 4 3,400 9226 J026 - Supervisors, Other Mechanical & al Products Manufact. 4 3,000 9232 J112 - Petroleum, Gas & Chemical Process Operators 4 7,500 9617 J317 - Labourers in Food, Beverage & Tobacco Processing 4 3,400 0111 A111 - Financial Managers 3 42.6% 4,300 0611 A131 - Sales, Marketing & Advertising Managers 3 9,700 0311 A321 - Managers in Health Care 3 2,800 0313 A323 - School Principals & Administrators of Elem. & Sec. Education 3 3,800 0314 A324 - Managers in Social, Community & Correctional Services 3 3,600 0712 A372 - Residential Home Builders & Renovators 3 14,700 0811 A381 - Primary Production Managers (except Agriculture) 3 4,400 1121 B021 - Specialists in Human Resources 3 5,900 1231 B111 - Bookkeepers 3 24,000 1222 B312 - Executive Assistants 3 4,500 1422 B522 - Data Entry Clerks 3 6,900 1432 B532 - Payroll Clerks 3 6,500 1441 B541 - Administrative Clerks 3 30,300 1471 B571 - Shippers & Receivers 3 16,500 1475 B575 - Dispatchers & Radio Operators 3 5,000 2113 C013 - Geologists, Geochemists and Geophysicists 3 5,300 2133 C033 - Electrical & Electronics Engineers 3 5,700 2154 C054 - Land Surveyors 3 1,800 2231 C131 - Civil Engineering Technologists & Technicians 3 3,100 2253 C153 - Drafting Technologists & Technicians 3 4,900 3215 D215 - Medical Radiation Technologists 3 1,500 3222 D222 - Dental Hygienists & Dental Therapists 3 1,500 6

3234 D234 - Ambulance Attendants &Other Paramedical Occupations 3 3,900 3411 D311 - Dental Assistants 3 3,000 3414 D313 - Other Assisting Occupations in Support of Health Services 3 9,200 4164 E034 - Social Policy Researchers, Consultants & Program Officers 3 3,100 5124 F024 - Professional Occup. in Public Relations & Communications 3 5,500 5133 F033 - Musicians & Singers 3 3,700 5242 F142 - Interior Designers 3 2,300 6215 G015 - Cleaning Supervisors 3 4,400 6242 G412 - Cooks 3 20,700 6453 G513 - Food & Beverage Servers 3 21,500 6262 G612 - Firefighters 3 2,700 6663 G933 - Janitors, Caretakers & Building Superintendents 3 26,000 6251 G941 - Butchers & Meat Cutters, Retail & Wholesale 3 2,400 6622 G972 - Grocery Clerks & Shelf Stockers 3 18,000 6681 G981 - Dry Cleaning & Laundry Occupations 3 2,100 6683 G983 - Other Elemental Service Occupations 3 2,600 7252 H112 - Steamfitters, Pipefitters & Sprinkler System Installers 3 6,400 7293 H143 - Insulators 3 1,600 7241 H211 - Electricians (except Industrial & System) 3 17,200 7351 H221 - Stationary Engineers & Auxiliary Equipment Operators 3 3,800 7231 H311 - Machinists & Machining & Tooling Inspectors 3 4,000 7264 H324 - Ironworkers 3 3,100 7441 H531 - Residential & Commercial Installers & Servicers 3 5,400 7412 H712 - Bus Drivers & Subway & Other Transit Operators 3 10,400 7452 H812 - Material Handlers 3 22,500 0112 A112 - Human Resources Managers 2 28.6% 3,400 0632 A222 - Accommodation Service Managers 2 5,200 1225 B315 - Purchasing Agents & Officers 2 9,600 1413 B513 - Records & File Clerks 2 5,100 1414 B514 - Receptionists & Switchboard Operators 2 23,400 1463 B563 - Couriers & Messengers 2 2,400 1472 B572 - Storekeepers and Parts Clerks 2 4,400 1474 B574 - Purchasing & Inventory Clerks 2 2,700 2212 C112 - Geological & Mineral Technologists & Technicians 2 5,300 2263 C163 - Inspectors in Public & Environmental Health & Occ. Health& Safety 2 5,300 3151 D111 - Head Nurses & Supervisors 2 under 1,500 4153 E023 - Family, Marriage & Other Related Counsellors 2 3,300 4141 E131 - Secondary School Teachers 2 7,300 6451 G511 - Maîtres d'hôtel & Hosts/Hostesses 2 6,400 6671 G731 - Operators & Attendants in Amusement, Recreation & Sport 2 7,000 6662 G932 - Specialized Cleaners 2 5,500 6623 G973 - Other Elemental Sales Occupations 2 3,000 7215 H015 - Contractors & Supervisors, Carpentry Trades 2 2,800 7217 H017 - Contractors & Supervisors, Heavy Construction Equipment Crews 2 6,600 7261 H321 - Sheet al Workers 2 2,400 7421 H611 - Heavy Equipment Operators (except Crane) 2 14,000 7422 H612 - Public Works Maintenance Equipment Operators 2 3,400 7371 H621 - Crane Operators 2 2,600 7

7612 H822 - Other Trades Helpers & Labourers 2 3,200 8431 I021 - General Farm Workers 2 6,900 8222 I122 - Supervisors, Oil & Gas Drilling and Service 2 14,100 8612 I212 - Landscaping & Grounds Maintenance Labourers 2 8,400 9619 J319 - Other Labourers in Processing, Manufacturing & Utilities 2 under 1,500 1453 B553 - Customer Service, Information & Related Clerks 1 18.2% 13,700 2264 C164 - Construction Inspectors 1 1,500 4122 E112 - Post-Secondary Teaching & Research Assistants 1 10,100 5211 F111 - Library & Archive Technicians & Assistants 1 1,600 6452 G512 - Bartenders 1 4,000 6472 G812 - Elementary & Secondary School Teacher Assistants 1 13,800 7294 H144 - Painters & Decorators 1 7,900 7611 H821 - Construction Trades Helpers & Labourers 1 21,300 7621 H831 Public Works & Maintenance Labourers 1 2,400 8232 I132 - Oil & Gas Well Drillers, Servicers, Testers & Related Workers 1 18,100 8412 I142 - Oil & Gas Well Drilling Workers & Services Operators 1 6,500 1241 B211 - Secretaries (except Legal and Medical) 0 9,400 1411 B511 - General Office Clerks 0 2,500 8615 I215 - Oil & Gas Drilling, Servicing & Related Labourers 0 5,400 TOTAL: 208 Occupations *NOC - Refers to the National Occupation Classification. For more information please visit: http://www.hrsdc.gc.ca/eng/lp/lo/lswe/we/ee_tools/data/noc/overview/noc.shtml **NOC-S - Refers to the National Occupation Classification for Statistics. For more information please visit: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/concepts/occupation-profession-eng.htm 8