What might agriculture and food systems look like in 2041?

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Food and water shortages as a result of climate change and growing populations are likely to trigger mass migration and unrest

In the next 40 years, farmers will have to grow as much food as they have in the last 10,000 years combined. Norman Borlaug

Food price index 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

http://crisisboom.com/2011/01/12/the-future-of-food-riots/ http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2012/10/01/food_riot_wide-5ac93fb3df821987c05abd26a3b12660caf0d588-s6-c30.jpg http://global3.memecdn.com/have-you-ever-been-so-angry_o_70452.jpg

70% of respondents to our household survey in Cameroon said they would riot if food prices rose in the future

This means we will need more food But it s not just about producing more

Food supply Food price index (dietary calories / person / day) 250.0 Food price 200.0 2850 150.0 100.0 2600 50.0 0.0 1990 1 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

250.0 index PriceFood of Oilprice (US $/barrel) Food price $140 200.0 150.0 100.0 $20 50.0 0.0 1990 1 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Extrapolation of the current depletion rate suggests that 35% of the southern High Plains will be unable to support irrigation within the next 30 y. Scanlon et al. (2012) page 9320, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. Declines of more than 40 feet between 1980-97 McGuire, V.L., Stanton, C.P., and Fischer, B.C. (1999). Water-level changes, 1980 to 1997, and saturated thickness, 1996-97, in the high plains aquifer (Fact Sheet FS124-99). Washington, DC: US Geological Survey. Available on the World Wide Web: http://ne.water.usgs.gov/highplains/hp97_web_report/fs-124-99.htm.

Human and environmental health

Estimated Annual Antibiotic Use in the United States (Kg / year) Hollis A, Ahmed Z. N Engl J Med 2013;369:2474-2476.

Nutrition

What we should be eating (Harvard's Healthy Eating Plate Model) Milk & Milk Products 8% Meat & Alternatives 20% Fruits & Vegetables 49% What we are actually producing (According to 2011 FAO) Milk and Milk Products 4% Meat & Alternatives 11% Oils & Fats 11% Fruits & Vegetables 11% V Oils & Fats 3% Cereals and Starches 20% Limit Sugar 16% Cereals and Starches 47%

Summary of these drivers Population growth and demand Water and energy prices Human and environmental health concerns A shift in diet that will lead to more veggies and less sugars and cereals/starches.

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Crickets require 12* less feed and 13* less water than cattle Pigs produces 10-100 * more GHGs per edible kg as mealworm. http://news.ubc.ca/2014/09/25/bug-bites/ Quorn causes 5 times less GHGs than beef and 1.5 times less than chicken. http://www.cabi.org/cabdirect/full TextPDF/2010/20103346525.pdf; see also: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.

"The look [of the worms] put me off, but in the shape of a cookie I'll eat it http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/gad gets/a8816/will-3d-printers-manufacture-yourmeals-15265101/

Is the digital revolution coming to farming?

https://www.realagriculture.com/2013/12/details-on-kinzes-multi-hybrid-concept-corn-planter/

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Today The future

Evan Fraser Canada Research Chair Department of Geography Frasere@uoguelph.ca

One underlying cause negative externalities

for any economic activity we should identify its negative environmental impacts, devise measures to avoid those impacts, and include the costs of those measures in the price of the product. It s the idea behind using carbon pricing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions [and] water pricing to conserve water

http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/resources/en/glw/layers_jpg/gl_beef_growthdemand0030.jpg

In the future, we will need to produce more food demand is rising.

So, while we will need to produce more, we can t assume that just boosting production will help keep things stable. This is because other factors influence prices too

1. 2. 3. There is impressive potential when only the most productive gardeners are considered; As currently practiced, UA only produces a fraction of potential production; For urban self-provisioning to meet its potential, a major increase in the area gardened and gardening skill is required.

Organic yields are LESS than conventional Organic yields are GREATER than conventional V Seufert et al. Nature 000, 1-4 (2012) doi:10.1038/nature11069

Is the digital revolution coming to food?

OECD projections suggest that demand for most meat will rise by about 130% between 2013 and 2024. http://stats.oecd.org/viewhtml.aspx?queryid=58654&vh=0000&vf=0&l&il=&lang=en#

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